The Govt, the Opposition, and the real Opposition. Some thoughts on Govt, Labour and the ERG/CRG.

Thread. 1/16

This is a Govt which is interested in the pursuit, and retention, of power (see this blog). It aims for short-term popularity, and is acutely sensitive to the public mood. 2/

https://t.co/vM2jjA7VZD
Its policies on the 2 big issues of the day - Brexit and COVID-19 - have not been successful.

We have not secured an easy trade deal with the UK and are facing a very hard Brexit, deal or no deal.

Both deaths and the economic damage from the virus are world-beating. 3/
What is (to me) interesting, and I think unusual, is that the loudest voices against the Govt's position, come not from the Labour party and other opposition parties; but from the fringes of the Conservative party (backed by many in the media). 4/
The possibly emerging deal with the EU is attacked not for the economic damage it will cause and the barriers it will create for people and business, but on the grounds that it represents an unconscionable imposition on the UK's sovereignty. 5/
The COVID response is not attacked because of the Govt's failure to build a system to enable us to 'live with' the virus, but because the rush to reopen the economy was (albeit belatedly) put on pause as deaths and hospitalisations rose alarmingly (and predictably). 6/
The debate, such as it is, is between the Govt's position and that of the ERG/CRG. It seems to be they who are the 'real Opposition'. 7/
The Labour Party (and other opposition parties) find themselves marginalised. And they have been presented with invidious policy choices. 8/
On Brexit, the 'choice' they have is between offering support for the Govt's deal... or facing no deal. Many in Govt are, or seem to be, very comfortable with no deal. There is no prospect of Labour opposition leading to a shift in the Govt position. 9/
On COVID, the 'choice' is between accepting the Govt's flawed tier system... or allowing the restrictions to lapse. There is no prospect of Labour opposition leading to a shift in the Govt position. 10/
The Opposition is - and I'm sure that the framing of the choices and the votes in Parliament is deliberate - asked to choose between offering support to a deeply flawed Govt policy, or being held at least in part responsible for a far worse outcome. 11/
It is often the fate of the Opposition to watch as a Govt with a large majority plots its own course. But it is, I think, unusual to see an Opposition so effectively marginalised. 12/
I wonder what the implications/consequences of this are. Two quick things do occur to me. 13/
First, the open divisions within the Conservative Party (for all that they may skew the debate and marginalise the Opposition) present opportunities for the Opposition. The majority of 80 is not necessarily a comfortable one. 14/
And second, it is imperative that the Opposition works much harder to establish an alternative narrative and to make its voice heard. It is not united. It has been chastened by the GE defeat. But still.

See thread on Brexit https://t.co/5dPxYdfPEr 15/
There is a huge political space, inhabited by those who want a closer more cooperative relationship with the EU, and a more considered response to COVID, which currently feels very empty. 16/16

More from Government

The Government is making the same mistakes as it did in the first wave. Except with knowledge.

A thread.


The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from


This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.

We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second


The Government then decided to change its strategy to 'preventing a second wave that overwhelms the NHS'. This was announced on 8 June in Parliament.

This is not the same as 'preventing a second wave'.

https://t.co/DPWiJbCKRm


The Academy of Medical Scientists published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser that set out what needed to be done in order to prevent a catastrophe over the winter

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THREAD: 12 Things Everyone Should Know About IQ

1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE


2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less.
https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n


3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)

(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)


4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.

For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3


5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)
https://t.co/6cRR2B3jBE
Viruses and other pathogens are often studied as stand-alone entities, despite that, in nature, they mostly live in multispecies associations called biofilms—both externally and within the host.

https://t.co/FBfXhUrH5d


Microorganisms in biofilms are enclosed by an extracellular matrix that confers protection and improves survival. Previous studies have shown that viruses can secondarily colonize preexisting biofilms, and viral biofilms have also been described.


...we raise the perspective that CoVs can persistently infect bats due to their association with biofilm structures. This phenomenon potentially provides an optimal environment for nonpathogenic & well-adapted viruses to interact with the host, as well as for viral recombination.


Biofilms can also enhance virion viability in extracellular environments, such as on fomites and in aquatic sediments, allowing viral persistence and dissemination.