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Farai Chideya
@farai 5 years, 5 months ago 421 views

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Question of the day: How would one model how much money was spent trying to convince conservatives to vote for the Democratic party, and what would happen if more of it had been spent on Black and Latina organizers?

I'll be upfront: I'm not qualified to do this work. But I'd like to know if anyone is doing it or what the process of inquiry would be. Here's why....

I was on a private panel with a credentialed white political scientist. He said that "the only way" to win the elex and reclaim democracy was to persuade white conservatives to abandon Donald Trump.

I told him I rejected that out of hand because it stripped me of all agency as a Black woman, and I could never wait for anyone to save me.

A lot of money went into persuading white conservatives that doesn't seem to have moved the needle. At the same time, in other private conversations (these are off the record panels of various types), Black/Latina organizers talked about Texas.

They were seen as tilting at windmills and underfunded. I asked who their surprise allies were, and they said establishment political strategists and donors, but only at the last moment.

One woman said: We got tens of millions of dollars late in the game when all we could do was run ads. If we had that early enough to knock on doors, we could have won Texas.

Who is doing what types of analyses that I should be paying attention to... knowing most of those are probably not completed, and the data may not be available.

I'd like to know. Either way, I'm not waiting for anyone to save me. And I think the argument that persuading white conservatives -- or liberals -- is the only way to save democracy is profoundly undermining of democracy itself.

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Grant Williams
@ttmygh

1/ I'm thrilled to announce the launch of my new website, a one-stop shop for all the content I'm creating.

There you'll find links to all my podcasts, the TTMYGH newsletter, and other exciting future projects.

2/ In 2020, I reignited my passion for interviewing brilliant people by launching The Grant Williams Podcast in various forms, including The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, and The Narrative Game.

3/ Starting February 1, I'm taking the bold step of moving these podcasts completely behind a paywall.

For the very affordable price of only $10 a month, listeners can gain access to the Copper Tier of https://t.co/fxUfH8maI4, which includes all current & future podcasts.

4/ Why am I doing this? First and foremost, I aspire to create VALUABLE content. By definition, if something is priced at $0, it isn’t valuable. The time, effort and creativity that goes into these episodes is substantial. To keep doing them properly, they can no longer be free.

5/ I also strongly believe content creators should be able to make a living creating content. If everything is free, that’s not possible. I never seriously considered accepting outside sponsors – complete integrity is too critical to me.

Bayo Adeyinka
@greaterbayo

Travelogue: Ibadan-Hills, Bottoms, Masquerades & Research

More than 15 years ago, I met an Italian who had lodged at KS Motel at Total Gardens, Ibadan.

He was in Ibadan for the first time and he was very fascinated with the city when I informed him that Rome and Ibadan shared a very unique similarity: both of them are built on seven hills. He asked me to take him round Ibadan which I did.

The seven hills are Oke Padre, Oke Ado, Oke Bola, Oke Mapo, Oke Are, Oke Sapati and Oke Mokola. But Ibadan is not just a city of hills. It is also a city of 'bottoms'. Loosely translated, 'idi' means bottom or the backside.

Several people have attached sexual innuendoes to the names. However, the actual translation indicates that some of the 'idis' indicate how the settlers converged at a point thereby leading to how they arrived at the names given.

Go round the city and you can locate Idi-Arere, Idi-Ose, Idi-Ishin, Idi-Ape, Idi-Ayunre, Idi-Obi and Idi-Ito.

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Christian Reshoeft
@reshoftc

(Thread) Why do I own individual stocks?

Thesis:

1. The digitalization of our world is 10% complete.
2. This megatrend will continue for at least another decade.
3. If you enjoy spending your free time on individual stocks, then the potential for outsized returns is possible.

What is my approach?

There are two parts to my portfolio.

- 40% in Vanguard All-World ETF. This is on autopilot w/ regular contributions.
- 60% in what I consider to be high growth stocks

I keep a balance by adding cash. No shuffling around unless it gets too out of whack.

The latter is the interesting part.

I invest in companies that can

1. successfully disrupt an industry with new business models $TTD $SQ $PTON $TDOC

2. further enable the digital transformation with their services and infrastructure $ZS $HUBS $TWLO $CRWD

I intend to hold my shares indefinitely and allow my investments to compound over time.

I don’t believe that it is possible to time the market. Markets go up and down. I hold on knowing that quality businesses tend to bounce back.

The list of reasons to sell is always long.

If you have full conviction in your holdings, then no single piece of “infotainment” should make you change your mind.

Ignore it + people who make predictions about the economy.

Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom

The Cantillon Effect is the most important economic concept you’ve never heard of.

Here's a breakdown of what it is (and why you should care):

1/ Richard Cantillon was an Irish-French economist and philosopher born in the 1680s.

He achieved success as a banker—which he attributed to the formidable connections made through his family and employer.

At a young age, he had learned of the impact of proximity to power...

2/ Around 1730, Cantillon wrote a paper—Essay on the Nature of Commerce in General—which is considered a foundational work in the study of the political economy.

It was widely circulated in manuscript form, though it was not published until 1755, well after his death.

3/ In the paper, Cantillon posited that the early recipients of new money entering an economy will benefit more significantly than those it trickles down to.

In other words, the "flow path" of the new money matters!

4/ In 18th century terms, those closest to the King—the source of money/power—benefitted first when new money entered the economy.

Broadly, Cantillon observed that new money creates distributional effects based on where it enters the system.

The Cantillon Effect was born...

Ming Zhao
@FabiusMercurius

Day in the Life of a Hedge Fund Analyst

Few live to tell the tale.

"Was it like Billions?"
"Describe ur investment process?"
"What did u learn?"

I get these questions all the time, but for a while I was afraid of answering publicly. No more!

Hedge fund story time.
👇
🧵/

1/ ⏰ 6AM Pre-Market Review

Wake up thinking about ur overnight positions.
What happened during London/Asia trading?
Scan the major news on ur way to office.
🏢🚕🚶‍♀️

Think about how ur getting screwed by beta (general macro, FOMC, inflation, etc.) cuz ur net long (or net short).

2/ 7AM Portfolio Review

U'll typically have ~250 names in the portfolio "universe" (stocks w/ active positions & those on watchlist but already modeled).

Review each thesis vis-a-vis new market conditions. Anything changed?
Should u downside/upsize any?
New trade opportunities?

Here's a checklist of top items to check per company:

- Any earnings calls this week?
- Any product releases?
- Any new sell-side reports? Downgrades/Upgrades?
- Any M&A rumors in the space?
- Any management change announcements?
- Any guidance revisions?
- Any legal happenings?

3/ 8AM Plan out your daily/weekly agenda

Major types of events that'll populate ur calendar:
- Investor day at XYZ
- Q1-Q4 earnings call
- XYZ road show
- Dinner event w/ IR (investor relations) at XYZ
- Private buy-side bus trip (w/ mgmt @ XYZ) arranged by GS
- JPM conference

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So I was talking to @gewt about Job: A Comedy of Justice and I came up with a theory that I think explains why Heinlein's late-period work is so kinda-terrible and why I still enjoy it so much

So Heinlein had always been very interesting in the short parts of his novels, like the little snippets inside chapters. He had a very fun writing style, and wrote some fun dialogue with fun characters, right?>
It probably comes from how much of his early stuff was short fiction

And I think what happened with a lot of his longer works is that he'd just start writing fun bits and hope it would end up going somewhere or having a bigger plot by the end. like eventually he'd figure out where this was going, then go back and rewrite it into a cohesive whole

and I'm sure he had editors that'd help this process. No editor would let you publish something as rambly and changing-gears-every-other-chapter as The Number Of The Beast, for example... unless you were God-King Of Science Fiction 1980s Robert Heinlein.

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There's been a lot of talk about the missionary killed by the natives of North Sentinel Island. They're probably so aggressive because of this weirdo, Maurice Vidal Portman. So here's a big thread about this creep and some facts from my decade-long obsession with the island.

The Sentinelese are often described as “uncontacted,” but this not strictly true. They had a very significant contact in 1880 with Commander Portman.

Portman, the black sheep third son of some minor noble, was assigned by the English Royal Navy to administer and pacify the Andaman Islands, a job he pursued from 1880-1900 with the full measure of his own perversity.

Portman was erotically obsessed with the Andamanese, and he indulged his passion for photography by kidnapping members of various tribes and posing them in mock-Greek homoerotic compositions.

During his 20 years in a sexualized heart of darkness, Portman measured and cataloged every inch of his prisoner’s bodies, with an obsessive focus on genitals.

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$Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193$

Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson

1/x Fort Detrick History
Mr. Patrick, one of the chief scientists at the Army Biological Warfare Laboratories at Fort Detrick in Frederick, Md., held five classified US patents for the process of weaponizing anthrax.

2/x
Under Mr. Patrick’s direction, scientists at Fort Detrick developed a tularemia agent that, if disseminated by airplane, could cause casualties & sickness over 1000s mi². In a 10,000 mi² range, it had 90% casualty rate & 50% fatality rate

3/x His team explored Q fever, plague, & Venezuelan equine encephalitis, testing more than 20 anthrax strains to discern most lethal variety. Fort Detrick scientists used aerosol spray systems inside fountain pens, walking sticks, light bulbs, & even in 1953 Mercury exhaust pipes

4/x After retiring in 1986, Mr. Patrick remained one of the world’s foremost specialists on biological warfare & was a consultant to the CIA, FBI, & US military. He debriefed Soviet defector Ken Alibek, the deputy chief of the Soviet biowarfare program
https://t.co/sHqSaTSqtB

5/x Back in Time
In 1949 the Army created a small team of chemists at "Camp Detrick" called Special Operations Division. Its assignment was to find military uses for toxic bacteria. The coercive use of toxins was a new field, which fascinated Allen Dulles, later head of the CIA

JayneshKasliwal
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ULTIMATE GUIDE TO 21 and 200 Moving Average
SUNDAY THREAD 🔖
A trend Following System That will Help You Improve Trading immensely.

RETWEET AND SHARE 🔄
@kuttrapali26 @AmitabhJha3
#stocks #StockMarket
1/n

Moving averages
EMA and SMA
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is similar to Simple Moving Average (SMA), measuring trend direction over a period of time.
2. However, whereas SMA simply calculates an average of price data, EMA applies more weight to data that is more current
2/

21 EMA : SHORT TERM TREND
1. Calculates the Average Price of past 21 days
2. A stock above 21 ema is in strong momentum , which will give pullbacks to 21 ema again and again.
3. Stock above 21 ema should never be shorted so as to stay with the trend
3/n

3. A stock which moves 10-15% above 21 ema will be too extended and hence will generally pullback
Stocks take dynamic support on 21 ema
4. You can Short only if its too extended like 15 to 20% from 21 ema ( Not advised )
#ADANIPOWER:
#pnbhousing
4/n

1. Whenever 21 ema is sloping upwards its called uptrend
2. Whenever 21 ema is sloping downwards its called dowtrend
3. Whenever 21 ema is sideways its called consolidation
⏫Buy in uptrend
⏬Sell in downtrend
Examples:
5/n

Sevak Sathaya
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Sharing one incident... After Modi's Trichy youth conference, the very next morning when police were clearing up their mini-control room, they found 5 strange boys who were roaming there with bags. When police enquired them "Sir, we are from Subramaniapuram in Trichy.

Whatever political meeting or conference is held in this ground, we come here on the same night or morning hours to collect the Liquor bottles to sell in the scrap shop for 50 paisa to 1 rupee per bottle and we used to earn Rs 200 to Rs 400 on each such event.

Even in the last DMK meeting the very next day we collected around 1500 bottles. But for Modi's BJP meeting, we could not find even a single bottle in the whole ground. We are coming around and around and not a single bottle in any corner of the G Corner ground in Trichy,

we are much disappointed, sir!". Police seem were stunned and pleasantly surprised. This is what Modi magic does in this nation. Modi is the one who can lead our nation and make everyone prosper with hardwork in right direction and proper approach.

This funny but interesting anecdote was published by a statewide local daily Dinamalar. I have just translated and posting it here for rest of the nation;