BC ECONOMY
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

One of the hardest problems post-pandemic will be how to revive so-called "left behind" places.

Post-industrial towns, run-down suburbs, coastal communities - these places were already struggling before the crisis and have fared worst in the last year.

What should we do?

 Today, @ukonward sets out the beginning of a plan to repair our social fabric. It follows our extensive research over the last year, expertly chaired by @jamesosh, and funded by @jrf_uk, @Shelter and @peoplesbiz.

https://t.co/d3T5uPwG9N
Before I get into recommendations, some findings from previous Onward research.

In 2018, we found 71% of people believe "community has declined in my lifetime"

In 2019, we found 65% would rather live in “a society that focuses on giving people more security” vs 35% for freedom
This was the basis for our identification of 'Workington Man' as the archetypal swing voter in 2019, and led us to predict (correctly) that large numbers of Red Wall seats could fall. A key driver was a desire for security, belonging and pride in place.
There is also a key regional dimension to this. We also tested people's affinity with the UK's direction of travel, across both cultural and economic dimensions - revealing the extraordinary spread below: London vs. the Rest.
https://t.co/HrorW4xaLp
Building on this research, last year we attempted to measure what has been going on with our social fabric.

We discovered an unarguable and long term decline in the institutions and networks that bind communities together at a local level.
https://t.co/c1J7vn2cn7
We created a composite index of dozens of statistical indicators to understand how social fabric varies by geography.

The pattern correlated strongly with political volatility and economic decline. Coastal and post-industrial towns hardest hit.
https://t.co/c1J7vn2cn7
If ministers want to "level up" and satisfy their new voters, they need a plan to revive communities and give people back a sense of belonging.

We argue that means two things: giving communities more powers for social action, and more capital to use them https://t.co/3hcT3Re8AA
We recommend empowering:
1. Town/parish councils (which shd be universal) to take control of green spaces and community sports facilities.
2. Local people to take over long-term vacant shops for community use.
3. Community Land Trusts to demand land to build affordable housing.
We argue for capitalising communities by:
1. Allow workers to access a yr of their pension early to volunteer/retrain
2. Allow working partners to transfer their full tax allowance to a stay-at-home spouse
3. Create "Year to Serve" to pay jobless young ppl to do civic service
And many more. You can read the full report, The Policies of Belonging, here: https://t.co/3hcT3Re8AA

Last night, @danny__kruger and @JonCruddas_1 led an Adjournment Debate in the House of Commons on this subject. Watch it here. https://t.co/6SwLEq9bgh

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Window dressing: : the act or an instance of making something appear deceptively attractive or favorable

Tens of thousands of of businesses shut down, economy in shambles, windows showing abandoned stores and restaurant are staring at you ugly when you are passing by. Now the same leftists responsible for this disaster think they found a solution to fix the ugliness they created.

This is the solution our Dem leaders have chosen to remedy the scars they created and the livelihoods they destroyed: apply some make-up. Make art installations in the windows of the abandoned stores and restaurants. Apply propaganda lipstick on the leftist pig and call it "art"

God forbid our leftist betters who run our cities would have thought of stopping this closure madness and helping people go back to work, re-opening stores and restaurants. That's not what they want. They want you to stay at home, afraid and dependent on their hand-outs.

In Socialist Romania during the years of the Ceausescu regime they did pretty much the same thing, only they didn't call it "art". The grocery stores and butcher shops were always empty, there was no food anywhere other that on the black market.
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Little history of QFS

Let’s put all this Woo Woo stuff aside and find out what the QFS has been doing over the last two years or so. It has been very busy.

Those involved in using this computer have learned how to “connect” into the archaic Central Bank computer(s) system. Through the SWIFT transfer protocol used by the Central Banks (CB),/2

the QFS has obtained account information from every Tier 1 bank account in every bank in the world that is linked to the SWIFT transfer system./3

It has also obtained info for 2nd tier and 3rd tier banks that don’t have their own SWIFT transfer codes and use Tier 1 banks to service their customer’s transfer requests. Tier 2 &3 banks have accounts in Tier 1 banks that are used to transfer money./4

With this information, the QFS was integrated into the SWIFT transfer system and programmed it to where each transfer is channeled through the QFS to record transfer data. The data is then inserted back into the SWIFT system to complete the transfer to the intended bank account.5
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1) Let's talk about a key part of the Chinese creator economy. The creator management and incubator agencies known as Multi-Channel Networks (MCN). We''ll summerise key lessons for the western creator economy.

And know how Li Ziqi got her 12m YouTube subscribers

2) MCNs are modern-day talent agencies (but more) who target influencers and creators as their clients. It originated in the US but has proliferated in China, with industry estimates of 5k-7k Chinese MCN operating as of 2020.

3) Typically, as creators gain enough following, they find it difficult to be an-all-in-one content creator, editor, customer support rep, accountant, lawyer, and marketing guru that the job demands.

Enter the MCNs who offers the creator the following:

4) Audience and traffic growth, PR management, monetisation through ads & e-commerce and support with retail fulfillment.

Their services are more holistic than western MCNs, who's offerings are more domain-specific.

5) Agreements between Chinese MCNs and creators can get into guarantees of the number of followers provided, copyrights, subtitling and distribution help, as well as providing analytical feedback on their content.
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@ReformedTrader
1/ Trend Factor: Any Economic Gains from Using Information over Investment Horizons? (Han, Zhou, Zhu)

"A trend factor using multiple time lengths outperforms ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal, which are based on the three price trends separately."

https://t.co/udkvsdw2Lz


2/ This resembles combining multiple measures of ST reversal, momentum, and LT reversal (forecasts determined by walking forward rather than using signs from the full sample).

Unlike normal moving average signals, these are *cross-sectional.* More below:
https://t.co/wkIFLg9jtK


3/ Unsurprisingly, the Trend factor formed by this approach outperforms benchmarks in terms of both Sharpe ratio and tail metrics. It's combining momentum with two factors that are negatively correlated to it AND using multiple specifications.

More here:
https://t.co/x8Tloz3iyL


4/ "Average return and volatility of the trend factor are both higher in recession periods. However, the Sharpe ratio is virtually the same.

"Interestingly, all of the factors still have positive average returns.

"Momentum experiences the greatest increase in volatility."


5/ "In terms of maximum drawdown and the Calmar ratio, the trend factor performs the best.

"The trend factor is correlated with the short-term reversal factor (35%), long-term reversal factor (14%), and the market (20%) but is virtually uncorrelated with the momentum factor."
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@deontologistics
I’m beginning to think that the left has been too obsessed with GDP as a broken economic metric governing the global shitshow, when inflation is more insidious. Deflation may be a more radical demand than degrowth. Burst bubbles. Deflate the price of fossil fuel infrastructure.

It’s amazing just how much political economy is still determined by the threat of stagflation. This has created a weird metonymy in which as long as you’re fight inflation (preserving the interests of (older) savers) you’re also fighting stagnation (supporting (younger) earners).

To some extent the residual fear of deflationary spirals lies behind this, waiting in the wings for any suggestion that stagnation must be fought with deflation. This is entirely understandable, as uncontrolled deflation hits the poorest hardest.

The assumption that conjoins these fears into an engine of unbridled economic stagnation is that there’s a unitary market effectively mediating between the markets in different sectors, be this unity micro-economic or macro-economic in flavour. But this just isn’t how it works.

There is so much more logistic friction in the price system than the popular story of just in time production suggests, not least in the concrete details of differentiated trade between economic actors from local businesses to nation states.
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The Chachnama describes in detail how the Arabs led by butcher Qasim conquered Sindh. It tells the terrible tale of bravery, treachery, & carnage marking the entry of Islamic conquest of India’s Hindus.


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When Muhammad-bin-Qasim attacked Sindh, Dahir had collected an army of 50,000 horses and marched from Brahamanabad to Rawar to face the invader. Qasim had an army that numbered in the tens of thousands with camels & horses.

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