Small +11K revisions of last 2 months.
This continues the deceleration of job growth we seen steadily for months.
Happy #JobsDay. 8:30 ET @BLS_gov delivers the most-important signals abt how economy is changing.
Forecasts' center:
+432,000 jobs
6.8% unemployment, tick down from 6.9%
But lots of reason to expect weaker jobs growth.
Small +11K revisions of last 2 months.
This continues the deceleration of job growth we seen steadily for months.
For comparison, during the Great Recession, we lost fewer than 9 million jobs.
Deceleration is clear.
The private sector added 344K, this is much weaker than recent months' growth, less than half of last month.
Fiscal policy is on track to be negative in Q4, contracting the economy.
This is insane.
https://t.co/8zJ48EafC7
Been basically stalled for months.
Reflects unemployed stopping search not finding work, due to rising public health threat making many jobs riskier.
These folks are saving lives & health but market won't pay them for that work. Govt should.
In manufacturing, workweek decreased by 0.2 hour to 40.3 hours, & overtime decreased by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours.
1) the labor market is stalling with job losses comparable to the bottom of the Great Recession.
2) many jobs are increasingly dangerous & we should pull back from some econ activity to preserve health.
Instead, 12-13 million Americans out of work through no fault of their own are about to lose their insurance benefits on the day after Christmas.
https://t.co/bN8zddMhMB
\U0001f6a8 This is a time bomb ticking in plain view that will blow up the stability, health, and well-being of many millions of American families &, consequently, damage the macroeconomy and everyone else.\U0001f6a8https://t.co/m2ooWo880V
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) October 28, 2020
\U0001f6a8The number of American households expecting to lose employment income rose 18% over the last 2 weeks \U0001f6a8 #HouseholdPulseSurvey
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) December 2, 2020
Millions expect loss in next 4 weeks: survey period
75.6 : Nov11-Nov23
64.2 : Oct28-Nov9
59.7 : Oct14-Oct26
58.3 : Sep30-Oct12
59.2 : Sep16-Sep28 https://t.co/MYi9hVSMha
https://t.co/xZ1HKAHb0f
Expectations worsening.
— Aaron Sojourner (@aaronsojourner) December 3, 2020
The share of small businesses expecting that, in the next 6 months, they will need to identify & hire new employees is falling.
Small businesses increasingly say they need public health & liquidity. pic.twitter.com/E8y7wzeYE9
Unless the federal govt acts, about twice that many people will be kicked off unemployment insurance on Dec 26.
Pre-haunting Ebenezer Scrooge would approve.
They are there for us & we need to show up for them. If you are a labor economist or care about workers & employment, follow & join @Friends_of_BLS.
@snaidunl & I have a new report out today @rooseveltinst.
https://t.co/jHIK2xXWj4
\u203c\ufe0f NEW from @rooseveltinst \u203c\ufe0f @snaidunl @aaronsojourner explain why, despite public perception, a #skillsgap doesn\u2019t explain rising economic inequality or persistent race and gender inequality. \U0001f447\U0001f3fd\U0001f447\U0001f3fd https://t.co/GtVqi8PMbt
— Katie Kirchner (@kkirch92) December 4, 2020
More from Economy
1/OK, let's take a little break from Coup Twitter, and think about an economic issue:
How can we build up the wealth of the middle class?
2/The typical American has surprisingly little wealth compared to the typical resident of many other developed countries.
This is a fact that is not widely known or appreciated.
3/Now, some people argue that stuff like Social Security or social insurance programs should be included in wealth. But I chose to focus on private wealth because I think having assets you can sell whenever you want is important to
4/For many decades after World War 2, middle-class wealth in America was on a smooth upward trajectory.
Then the housing crash came, and all that changed. Suddenly the rich were still doing well but everyone else was seeing the end of their American Dream.
5/Why the divergence?
Because the American middle class has its wealth in houses -- specifically, in the houses they live in.
It's the rich who own stocks.
How can we build up the wealth of the middle class?
2/The typical American has surprisingly little wealth compared to the typical resident of many other developed countries.
This is a fact that is not widely known or appreciated.
3/Now, some people argue that stuff like Social Security or social insurance programs should be included in wealth. But I chose to focus on private wealth because I think having assets you can sell whenever you want is important to
Yes, these numbers don't include things like Social Security, just privately held wealth. They're not an attempt to capitalize every possible future income stream.
— Noahtogolpe \U0001f407 (@Noahpinion) January 10, 2021
4/For many decades after World War 2, middle-class wealth in America was on a smooth upward trajectory.
Then the housing crash came, and all that changed. Suddenly the rich were still doing well but everyone else was seeing the end of their American Dream.
5/Why the divergence?
Because the American middle class has its wealth in houses -- specifically, in the houses they live in.
It's the rich who own stocks.
You May Also Like
Joe Rogan's podcast is now is listened to 1.5+ billion times per year at around $50-100M/year revenue.
Independent and 100% owned by Joe, no networks, no middle men and a 100M+ people audience.
👏
https://t.co/RywAiBxA3s
Joe is the #1 / #2 podcast (depends per week) of all podcasts
120 million plays per month source https://t.co/k7L1LfDdcM
https://t.co/aGcYnVDpMu
Independent and 100% owned by Joe, no networks, no middle men and a 100M+ people audience.
👏
https://t.co/RywAiBxA3s
Joe is the #1 / #2 podcast (depends per week) of all podcasts
120 million plays per month source https://t.co/k7L1LfDdcM
https://t.co/aGcYnVDpMu
