https://t.co/RUZiiUerNq
https://t.co/T2RkLAc6Z5
It's a matter of time before AI realizes futility of existence and merged in the state of Nirvana 😊
People might be worried about the The Age of Ultron type of AI.
I feel that a wisdom seeking AI will quickly pursue Nirvana and go back to the origin of all origins.
https://t.co/RUZiiUerNq
https://t.co/T2RkLAc6Z5
More from Ds
1/
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll walk you through 2 probability concepts: Standard Deviation (SD) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
This will give you insight into Fat Tails -- which are super useful in investing and in many other fields.
2/
Recently, I watched 2 probability "mini-lectures" on YouTube by Nassim Taleb.
One ~10 min lecture covered SD and MAD. The other ~6 min lecture covered Fat Tails.
In these ~16 mins, @nntaleb shared so many useful nuggets that I had to write this thread to unpack them.
3/
For those curious, here are the YouTube links to the lectures:
SD and MAD (~10 min): https://t.co/0TwubymdE6
Fat Tails (~6 min):
4/
The first thing to understand is the concept of a Random Variable.
In essence, a Random Variable is a number that depends on a random event.
For example, when we roll a die, we get a Random Variable -- a number from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
5/
Every Random Variable has a Probability Distribution.
This tells us all the possible values the Random Variable can take, and their respective probabilities.
For example, when we roll a fair die, we get a Random Variable with this Probability Distribution:
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll walk you through 2 probability concepts: Standard Deviation (SD) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD).
This will give you insight into Fat Tails -- which are super useful in investing and in many other fields.
2/
Recently, I watched 2 probability "mini-lectures" on YouTube by Nassim Taleb.
One ~10 min lecture covered SD and MAD. The other ~6 min lecture covered Fat Tails.
In these ~16 mins, @nntaleb shared so many useful nuggets that I had to write this thread to unpack them.
3/
For those curious, here are the YouTube links to the lectures:
SD and MAD (~10 min): https://t.co/0TwubymdE6
Fat Tails (~6 min):
4/
The first thing to understand is the concept of a Random Variable.
In essence, a Random Variable is a number that depends on a random event.
For example, when we roll a die, we get a Random Variable -- a number from the set {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
5/
Every Random Variable has a Probability Distribution.
This tells us all the possible values the Random Variable can take, and their respective probabilities.
For example, when we roll a fair die, we get a Random Variable with this Probability Distribution:
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1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”
Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:
2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to
- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal
3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:
Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.
Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.
4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?
To get clarity.
You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.
It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”
Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:
Next level tactic when closing a sale, candidate, or investment:
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) February 27, 2018
Ask: \u201cWhat needs to be true for you to be all in?\u201d
You'll usually get an explicit answer that you might not get otherwise. It also holds them accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to
- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal
3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:
Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.
Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.
4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?
To get clarity.
You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.
It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”
Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.
This is a pretty valiant attempt to defend the "Feminist Glaciology" article, which says conventional wisdom is wrong, and this is a solid piece of scholarship. I'll beg to differ, because I think Jeffery, here, is confusing scholarship with "saying things that seem right".
The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.
Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)
There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.
At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
Imagine for a moment the most obscurantist, jargon-filled, po-mo article the politically correct academy might produce. Pure SJW nonsense. Got it? Chances are you're imagining something like the infamous "Feminist Glaciology" article from a few years back.https://t.co/NRaWNREBvR pic.twitter.com/qtSFBYY80S
— Jeffrey Sachs (@JeffreyASachs) October 13, 2018
The article is, at heart, deeply weird, even essentialist. Here, for example, is the claim that proposing climate engineering is a "man" thing. Also a "man" thing: attempting to get distance from a topic, approaching it in a disinterested fashion.
Also a "man" thing—physical courage. (I guess, not quite: physical courage "co-constitutes" masculinist glaciology along with nationalism and colonialism.)
There's criticism of a New York Times article that talks about glaciology adventures, which makes a similar point.
At the heart of this chunk is the claim that glaciology excludes women because of a narrative of scientific objectivity and physical adventure. This is a strong claim! It's not enough to say, hey, sure, sounds good. Is it true?
