Dear #Bitcoin & crypto tribe,

Here are some lessons from @arrington on @nakamoto which are particularly timely and poignant for we continue our good fight for crypto adoption in 2021.

NFT Crypto Guide 101 📚

🔹What are Non-Fungible-Tokens?
🔹What are NFTs used for?
🔹What do I expect for the NFT space in 2021?
🔹What NFTs do i hold?
🔹Where do I buy NFTs?

I will go through all of these questions.

Thread below 👇

🔹What are Non-Fungible-Tokens (NFTs)?

NFTs are crypto tokens that represent something unique. They are not mutually interchangeable.

This means that one NFT is not the same as the other.

Unlike for example Bitcoin, where each satoshi is exactly the same as the other.

These NFTs exist on the Ethereum Blockchain. Instead of ERC-20 tokens, we call these NFTs: ERC-721 or ERC-1155 tokens.

Each of these NFTs have an unique ID that seperates them.

For example, The Hashmask with ID #6718 is completely different than the Hashmask with ID #9939.

Different visually as well as the ID on the blockchain.

🔹What are NFTs used for?

NFTs are used to create verifiable digital scarcity and digital ownership.

The main applications we see today are:

🔹Digital Art
🔹Collectibles
🔹Games

1/29 #Bitcoin thread, updated version

We’ve doubled since the last time I updated this thread, so I thought it would be of some value to update it. Feeling insecure about price action? Too enthusiastic/scared? Maybe this helps a bit, go check it out!

TLDR at 27-29
Let’s go!🔥

2/ 2 Year MA Multiplier
This indicator uses the 2Y MA. Green line is the 2Y MA, red is the same MA x5

2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~48k rn. Price goes parabolic. I would personally love to get a decent correction, would give more space for growth long term imho.

3/ Relative Unrealized P/L
Paper p/l in $Btc. Use it to track investor sentiment.
Market is overheating, everybody is in paper profits, but as you can see “we” as a whole take too less profit. We can stay around greed for a whole year, but a correction at this point makes sense

4/ 200 Week MA Heatmap
#Bitcoin likes to bottom out near the 200W MA
Colors are attached to % increase of MA
Blue/purple = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
First green coming(?) Room for growth

5/ MVRV Z-score.
To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.

Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Red=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.

Now: heating up. Correction first to cool it off plz :)
Nice uptick in realized value.

Someone tosses a coin ten times; it comes up heads every time. What's the probability it comes up heads on the next toss? (Pretty darn high—part of @nntaleb's work is unprogramming you from your high-school rules of thumb.) Now consider the (related) Gambler's fallacy...

In this case, it's a theory about compensation: the worse one's luck is, the more likely it is to see a reversal. On the surface, it's irrational. The more bad luck you have, the more you accumulate evidence that the system is rigged.

But there's also an anthropic component. If the luck is bad enough, it starts to become inconsistent with your survival. You've accumulated evidence for correlations in the environment, but these correlations (may be) inconsistent with (people like you) being in this environment.

An example. You're in a city where everyone takes public transport. You encounter a string of bad delays. It's reasonable to conclude they'll end—otherwise people wouldn't take public transport. It's unlikely that you happened to show up right when the network collapses.

Of course, that's a bad heuristic in a casino, which relies on a constant influx of losers. But in other environments, particularly with persistent populations and no evidence for sudden changes in the underlying laws, it makes sense.

If you've been following DeFi or Ethereum over the past few months, you've likely heard the term "flash loan" mentioned again and again.

This new DeFi primitive has been at the core of a number of economic exploits and arbitrages.

A thread on the basics of flash loans - 👇

Most DeFi loans take place across days, weeks, or even months.

You can deposit Ethereum into Aave, then withdraw stablecoins for yield farming in Yearn, for instance.

On-chain loans have garnered much traction, with total debt outstanding moving toward $2.5 billion.

While popular, DeFi loans are not capital efficient: to account for custodial risk and volatility risk, you need to put up 130-150% of the value of your loan in collateral.

If your collateral slips below the threshold, you're liquidated, resulting in a fee anywhere from 5-13%.

Flash loans are much different than longer-term DeFi loans.

Flash loans are non-custodial, take place over the course of one block, and require no collateralization.

That's to say, the coins you borrow never appear in your wallet.

When taking a flash loan, you can direct the coins to any protocol and function, as long as you pay back the loan + interest fee within the same transaction.

So what the hell? What are flash loans used for?

More often than not, arbitrage.