1/ In September 1993, then-Microsoft exec Nathan Myhrvold wrote his landmark memo "Road Kill on the Information Highway", laying out a dozen-ish predictions on the rise of the internet

27 years later, I think it's a super interesting case study. Let's evaluate the predictions -

2/ PREDICTION #1: The rise of a surveillance society - police bodycams, CCTV, 24/7 personal recording, and deepfakes

GRADE: A-

Pretty close!
3/ PREDICTION #2: Telecommuting, an end to the "tyranny of geography" and gerrymandering

GRADE: B-

Alas, the electoral college still matters today. The WFH prediction hits closer, but turns out it took two and a half decades + a pandemic to get things going
4/ PREDICTION #3: Telco convergence - phone companies become cable providers and vice versa

GRADE: A-

Honestly this one was a bit of a layup, although it took 15 years longer than anyone expected
5/ PREDICTION #4: The rise of online neo-banks

GRADE: C

Three decades later, and physical banks still exist. Neobanks have a presence in emerging markets, UK, and basically nowhere else. Regulatory inertia: officially a thing
6/ PREDICTION #5: "Newspapers are in probably the worst situation of any form of print media"

GRADE: A+

Frankly I was shocked by the prescience of this section. Newspapers were once local advertising monopolies. The internet broke that monopoly
7/ PREDICTION #6: "Television broadcasters are some of the most likely fodder for roadkill of any of the current media companies"

GRADE: B+

Pretty much right, but 21 years too early. Broadcasters kept growing until 2014
8/ PREDICTION #7: The internet will expand the market for Hollywood content. Also, Blockbuster is toast

GRADE: A

The iron law of media investing is that over any long enough timeframe, value inexorably accrues to the content owner
9/ PREDICTION #8: Traditional PCs will be replaced by lightweight, low-end internet terminals

GRADE: C+

Say what you will about low end disruption, but after all these years I still don't want to use a Chromebook
10/ In retrospect, most of Myrhvold's predictions were pretty good. His call on the print media was spectacularly right. His calls on TV, Hollywood, and telcos took a while, but ultimately happened. Telecommuting and 24/7 surveillance are still shifting in realtime...
11/ The one catch? Timing

Nearly all these predictions took 15-20+ years to play out. WFH is still 25+ years in the making. Nothing in the memo (except shorting newspapers) would've been investable on any reasonable timeframe

Predicting the future is easy. Making money is hard!

More from Crime

Yesterday I did a thread on how Huawei is trying to manipulate Belgian policy audiences with a fake online ecosystem ahead of a key 5G decision. (https://t.co/ViIp7X5KsN) Huawei did not take kindly to my research.


Mike Bai, the "President of Strategy Marketing Western Europe" for Huawei doubled down and tagged me and the organisations listed in my profile in a promoted (!) tweet. It's still doing the rounds now.


But who is Mike Bai? An analysis of his Twitter account by Botometer rates him a dubious 2.2/5 (by comparison, I rate 0.4, where 0 is best). @villaraco points out that he gained 800K followers in 9 months: https://t.co/YfoVaVNq2y


Bai's sudden and massive online presence for Huawei started at the exact same time as the fake ecosystem of blogs and websites started being built, in March 2020. I can find no job history for him pre-Huawei, starting in March of this year.

I did find another (?) Mike Bai. The other Mike Bai authored a blog that posts Chinese state propaganda about things like the Covid-19 outbreak not originating in China. I won't link to the blog as not 100% sure it's same person, but here's a screenshot of part of the text.

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क्या आप जानते हैं कि क्या है, पितृ पक्ष में कौवे को खाना देने के पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण!

श्राद्ध पक्ष में कौओं का बड़ा ही महत्व है। कहते है कौआ यम का प्रतीक है, यदि आपके हाथों दिया गया भोजन ग्रहण कर ले, तो ऐसा माना जाता है कि पितरों की कृपा आपके ऊपर है और वे आपसे ख़ुश है।


कुछ लोग कहते हैं की व्यक्ति मरकर सबसे पहले कौवे के रूप में जन्म लेता है और उसे खाना खिलाने से वह भोजन पितरों को मिलता है

शायद हम सबने अपने घर के किसी बड़े बुज़ुर्ग, किसी पंडित या ज्योतिषाचार्य से ये सुना होगा। वे अनगिनत किस्से सुनाएंगे, कहेंगे बड़े बुज़ुर्ग कह गए इसीलिए ऐसा करना

शायद ही हमें कोई इसके पीछे का वैज्ञानिक कारण बता सके।

हमारे ऋषि मुनि और पौराणिक काल में रहने वाले लोग मुर्ख नहीं थे! कभी सोचियेगा कौवों को पितृ पक्ष में खिलाई खीर हमारे पूर्वजों तक कैसे पहुंचेगी?

हमारे ऋषि मुनि विद्वान थे, वे जो बात करते या कहते थे उसके पीछे कोई न कोई वैज्ञानिक कारण छुपा होता था।

एक बहुत रोचक तथ्य है पितृ पक्ष, भादो( भाद्रपद) प्रकृति और काक के बीच।

एक बात जो कह सकते कि हम सब ने स्वतः उग आये पीपल या बरगद का पेड़/ पौधा किसी न किसी दीवार, पुरानी

इमारत, पर्वत या अट्टालिकाओं पर ज़रूर देखा होगा। देखा है न?

ज़रा सोचिये पीपल या बरगद की बीज कैसे पहुंचे होंगे वहाँ तक? इनके बीज इतने हल्के भी नहीं होते के हवा उन्हें उड़ाके ले जा सके।
Margatha Natarajar murthi - Uthirakosamangai temple near Ramanathapuram,TN
#ArudraDarisanam
Unique Natarajar made of emerlad is abt 6 feet tall.
It is always covered with sandal paste.Only on Thriuvadhirai Star in month Margazhi-Nataraja can be worshipped without sandal paste.


After removing the sandal paste,day long rituals & various abhishekam will be
https://t.co/e1Ye8DrNWb day Maragatha Nataraja sannandhi will be closed after anointing the murthi with fresh sandal paste.Maragatha Natarajar is covered with sandal paste throughout the year


as Emerald has scientific property of its molecules getting disturbed when exposed to light/water/sound.This is an ancient Shiva temple considered to be 3000 years old -believed to be where Bhagwan Shiva gave Veda gyaana to Parvati Devi.This temple has some stunning sculptures.