1/ In September 1993, then-Microsoft exec Nathan Myhrvold wrote his landmark memo "Road Kill on the Information Highway", laying out a dozen-ish predictions on the rise of the internet

27 years later, I think it's a super interesting case study. Let's evaluate the predictions -

2/ PREDICTION #1: The rise of a surveillance society - police bodycams, CCTV, 24/7 personal recording, and deepfakes

GRADE: A-

Pretty close!
3/ PREDICTION #2: Telecommuting, an end to the "tyranny of geography" and gerrymandering

GRADE: B-

Alas, the electoral college still matters today. The WFH prediction hits closer, but turns out it took two and a half decades + a pandemic to get things going
4/ PREDICTION #3: Telco convergence - phone companies become cable providers and vice versa

GRADE: A-

Honestly this one was a bit of a layup, although it took 15 years longer than anyone expected
5/ PREDICTION #4: The rise of online neo-banks

GRADE: C

Three decades later, and physical banks still exist. Neobanks have a presence in emerging markets, UK, and basically nowhere else. Regulatory inertia: officially a thing
6/ PREDICTION #5: "Newspapers are in probably the worst situation of any form of print media"

GRADE: A+

Frankly I was shocked by the prescience of this section. Newspapers were once local advertising monopolies. The internet broke that monopoly
7/ PREDICTION #6: "Television broadcasters are some of the most likely fodder for roadkill of any of the current media companies"

GRADE: B+

Pretty much right, but 21 years too early. Broadcasters kept growing until 2014
8/ PREDICTION #7: The internet will expand the market for Hollywood content. Also, Blockbuster is toast

GRADE: A

The iron law of media investing is that over any long enough timeframe, value inexorably accrues to the content owner
9/ PREDICTION #8: Traditional PCs will be replaced by lightweight, low-end internet terminals

GRADE: C+

Say what you will about low end disruption, but after all these years I still don't want to use a Chromebook
10/ In retrospect, most of Myrhvold's predictions were pretty good. His call on the print media was spectacularly right. His calls on TV, Hollywood, and telcos took a while, but ultimately happened. Telecommuting and 24/7 surveillance are still shifting in realtime...
11/ The one catch? Timing

Nearly all these predictions took 15-20+ years to play out. WFH is still 25+ years in the making. Nothing in the memo (except shorting newspapers) would've been investable on any reasonable timeframe

Predicting the future is easy. Making money is hard!

More from Crime

My students @maxzks and Tushar Jois spent most of the summer going through every piece of public documentation, forensics report, and legal document we could find to figure out how police were “breaking phone encryption”. 1/


This was prompted by a claim from someone knowledgeable, who claimed that forensics companies no longer had the ability to break the Apple Secure Enclave Processor, which would make it very hard to crack the password of a locked, recent iPhone. 2/

We wrote an enormous report about what we found, which we’ll release after the holidays. The TL;DR is kind of depressing:

Authorities don’t need to break phone encryption in most cases, because modern phone encryption sort of sucks. 3/

I’ll focus on Apple here but Android is very similar. The top-level is that, to break encryption on an Apple phone you need to get the encryption keys. Since these are derived from the user’s passcode, you either need to guess that — or you need the user to have entered it. 4/

Guessing the password is hard on recent iPhones because there’s (at most) a 10-guess limit enforced by the Secure Enclave Processor (SEP). There’s good evidence that at one point in 2018 a company called GrayKey had a SEP exploit that did this for the X. See photo. 5/
We - myself from AIPWA, @kawalpreetdu from @AISA_tweets and advocate Sneha from @HRLNIndia are in Kanth, #Moradabad to meet the Muskan and Rashid, the couple who are victims of illegal arrest, forced abortion by @UPPolice under the hateful ordinance passed by @myogiadityanath


We found that 1) Muskan is very weak after her miscarriage, and the Moradabad District Hospital where she was admitted has not given her the treatment papers, nor any course of antibiotics and painkillers to prevent post miscarriage infections that can affect fertility in future

2) The first dose of antibiotics & painkillers Muskan received is today - after we got her to speak on phone to a senior gynaecologist in Delhi, who explained that antibiotics are always prescribed following a miscarriage, to prevent infections.

3) Muskan alleges that the hospital administered abortifacient injections after which she suffered a miscarriage. What is indisputable is that the hospital deliberately failed in its duty to a patient, a) by not telling Muskan re the miscarriage b) by not prescribing antibiotics

and c) by withholding her treatment papers which every patient is supposed to receive
Moreover, how did the head of the UP State Commission for Protection of Child Rights Dr Vishesh Gupta, declare that pregnancy was intact? On whose orders did Dr Vishesh Gutpa lie?

You May Also Like

12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4. @DillikiBiili

Share for the benefit of everyone.

Here are the setups from @Pathik_Trader Sir first.

1. Open Drive (Intraday Setup explained)


Bactesting results of Open Drive


2. Two Price Action setups to get good long side trade for intraday.

1. PDC Acts as Support
2. PDH Acts as


Example of PDC/PDH Setup given