BC BUSINESS
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Did you know that 30% of funded search funds end up not making an acquisition?

We have bought eight beautiful businesses this year and learned a lot about what works and what doesn’t.

Read below for case studies of the two best (20x) acquisitions I have seen. Happy New Years!

 First - you pay for existing profits, but you usually pay nothing for the growth potential. Buying at 4x EBITDA and doubling a business, you now paid 2x. Your loan payments are only based on the price you paid. You keep all the growth as equity.
So there are businesses out there that have both boring, predictable profits today AND potential for substantial growth. Make sure you find one with both.
Business #1: Buyer paid $400k for an ecom business. High margins, bad marketing. Paid about 4x cash flow. Put 100% of his energy on social media growth marketing. Kept going and testing until he had the formula.
Key ingredients there: low purchase price, proven useful product, Hugh margins, poor marketing. The buyer brought the hustle and creativity to scale through social media marketing. It wasn’t a passion product for him, but he liked the market.
Business #2: Buyer had a hobby that he was passionate about. Found a membership program that he loved run by a husband and wife team. Cold outreach to them: “would you ever consider selling your business for the right price?”
Similar to first one, his special sauce was scaling social media marketing and improving conversion. This was a subscription membership - low cost high utility and in a niche market.
Paid $800k plus a bit of seller financing. Again 4x cash flow approx. He 10x’ed the customer base in a few years. As @RyanBegelman says, there are riches in niches.
So why do so many searches fail? In my view, one huge problem is they overindex on consistency of profits and underindex on growth potential and strategy. As a result, investors don’t get that excited even when they do find a deal. Boring is good. Boring and scalable is better.
Another problem is they don’t solve for financing. Some businesses are easy to finance, some are hard. You want to talk to lenders early and often. They are your best sources of intel on how much debt you can access and at what cost.
So I often advise searchers to look for smaller (SBA fundable) opportunities as well the bigger $10-$20 million deals in the traditional sweet spot. You own more of the business and often have more unrealized growth.

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THREAD: The story of the week in finance is how a group of retail traders at @wallstreetbets, with assists from @ElonMusk and @Chamath, took down the establishment short sellers at GameStop.

A thread on the underlying mechanics of the $GME saga...


1/ First, for those unfamiliar with the business, GameStop is a videogame and merchandise retailer.

It has >5,000 stores, primarily in malls, across North America, Europe, and Australia.

The business has struggled to modernize, hurting its financial and stock performance.


2/ For a variety of business reasons, a bull (i.e. optimistic) case regarding its future performance has formed.

It really came to the forefront after RC Ventures, an entity managed by Chewy founder @ryancohen, disclosed a large position and assumed three board seats.


3/ @ryancohen summarized his case, stating:

"We are excited to bring our customer-obsessed mindset and technology experience to GameStop and its strategic assets...expanding the ways in which it delights customers and by becoming the ultimate destination for gamers."

4/ At the time of that statement on January 11, $GME stock was trading at about ~$20 per share.

Since then, the stock has surged to ~$200 per share and captured the public imagination.

But how did it happen?

There are two dynamics at play: a short squeeze and a gamma squeeze.
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#irrationalebullience If you want to understand the nature of this asset bubble and the epic capital mis-allocation at it’s heart, look no further than rates. CB’s only tool to push an uber-levered financial system that is highly interconnected through derivatives
(1/N)

away from it’s natural convergence path towards collapse is to create opposing forces to push it towards divergence. Meaning: force, through financial repression, market participants to rely on price continuation, in a way that makes it self-fulfilling.
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The tool used is rates as it is the basis off of which all other financial assets are priced. Today any buyer of $UST across the curve up to 30Y is guaranteed a loss given reals are negative throughout. So the only hope of escaping this GUARANTEED loss
(3/N)

is to angle for capital gains, i.e a continuous move downwards in real rates to push for some capital gains in real terms. The longer the financial repression lasts, the further investors are pushed out the maturity and credit risk curves.
(4/N)

Here are examples to understand what exactly is happening. If an investors buys a 5 Y UST he is guaranteed to lose almost 2% in real terms, so making that up in capital gains is much harder given the v short duration.
(5/N)
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By now, you’ve probably heard that global supply chains are in a state of disarray.

Here's a simple breakdown of what’s causing it:


1/ There's a lot of talk right now about the global supply chain crisis.

@Business published an article subtitled "Inside the Brutal Realities of Supply Chain Hell”—it's getting serious.

This thread provides my (very) simple framework for understanding the key drivers:

2/ First off, what are the visible impacts of the crisis?

Product delays (good luck getting appliances before 2022), product shortages (see semiconductors), port buildups (fly over LA and you'll see), and rampant freight costs (sorry, retailer margins).

It's pretty bad.


3/ Global supply chains are very complex. We live in a highly-interconnected world.

A butterfly flaps its wings in Shenzhen and impacts when I receive my bike in New York. Ok, maybe not quite, but almost...

So to understand the drivers of the crisis, we need a simple framework.

4/ Let's break down what is happening using an Econ 101 classic: Supply and Demand.

Supply here refers to everything related to manufacturing, production, and transportation.

Demand here refers to everything related to consumption.

I'll walk through each side:
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You can’t see the Sun as it is now, but you can see it as it was about 8 minutes ago. You can’t see Alpha Centauri now, but you can see it 4.4 years ago. You can see the Andromeda Galaxy as it was 2.5 million years in the past. And so on.

With powerful telescopes, we can see galaxies whose light has been traveling to us for more than 13 billion years. We see them shining in a universe that’s still young, where gravity has just begun to pull matter together into stars and galaxies.

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#DoYouKnow -The place where
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There is a Legend #story & it is related to this beautiful #sculpture of Kshetrapuraneswarar & Ambal Lalithambigai #Thread 👇


#Legend #story
It is believed that this is birth place of Kashyapa Maharishi’s sons, Arunan& Garudan. Arunan(charioteer of Surya)was physically handicapped.He was a Shiva devotee.Arunan wanted to visit Kailash to have Shiva Darshan,but Surya Dev denied permission.

So Arunan disguised as a girl & was on his way to Kailash.On the way Surya Dev saw this girl & outraged her modesty.Shiva was very angry with Suryan for misbehaviour & cursed him to get darkened. Whole world plunged into darkness.Surya Dev pleaded to Bhagwan Shiv to forgive him.

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