BC BUSINESS
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

After thinking on it over the weekend, I have a couple of thoughts about this panel (both a bit negative + a tad contrarian it seems, though maybe just among the 6 panelists):

 1. A constant refrain I hear from public opinion researchers is that the public wants (& practitioners should focus on) public opinion polling on policy & political 'issues', not election / candidate polling
The argument is reminiscent of anti-fast food dietary rhetoric. People should / do want issue polls because this is the 'healthy' way to engage in public opinion as opposed to the "guilty pleasure" of election polling
I think people are drawn to election polling because who ends up being an elected official is insanely consequential to the lives of many Americans. Political leaders also help "determine" the ideological focus of our politics, especially among co-partisans
It makes sense that researchers love "issue polling". We are really deeply interested in politics and what the public thinks and it's repercussions on politics. It also adds important extra dimensions to our work, especially when elections aren't ongoing.
I'm surprised the panelists didn't think that a recent conservative bias in election polling somehow wouldn't imply that estimates of issue opinion have similar (or even worse) biases. Correlational and experimental studies shouldn't be immune either just because of randomization
Election polling is one of the few times in public opinion research when we are asked to measure a clear and easily validated construct and should be an important criterion for understanding the public (though it of course can be easily manipulated and gamed, see Goodhart's Law)
2. Should we be positive about the future of public opinion research? Maybe? I'm a bit indifferent here. On the one hand, I'm sure if you asked this panel the same question about 2016 in the run-up to 2020 I'm sure they would be similarly positive. It's important to be realistic
On the other hand, we've never had better tooling to analyze survey data. @doug_rivers & team has been at the forefront of pushing the modern statistical toolkit & others have followed, but too much of the work being done has been decidedly uncreative
Academic work may be promising but their timelines & incentive structures don't seem to align on some of these core problems. I have a strong sense of what the future should look like here, but I've grown pessimistic about who will drive this innovation in the public sphere
Anyways, thanks @RoperCenter for the engaging discussion & the panelists for their wisdom. We get better when we work and talk together. Here's to finding those solutions :)

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Mario Gabriele \U0001f98a
Mario Gabriele 🦊...
@mariodgabriele
Red Bull is a weird and fascinating company.

- $7.4 billion in 2020 revenue
- 43% energy drink market
- Makes nothing

Nope, not even the drinks they sell. Instead, they focus 100% on marketing.

Here's what's going on

1/

Before Red Bull there was Krating Daeng (KD).

Founded by pharmaceutical entrepreneur, Chaleo Yoovidhya, KD was created to serve Thailand's country's working class.

Yoovidhya chose the gaur, a member of the bovine family from the region, as the brand's symbol.


2/

Dietrich Mateschitz was a toothpaste marketer. On a business trip to Thailand he discovered KD and fell in love with the drink.

With Yoovidhya, he decided to bring it to Europe. He made changes:

- Name became "Red Bull"
- Added bubbles
- Used a thin can
- Targeted elites


3/

The deal Mateschitz and Yoovidhya struck outsourced production of the drink to the Thai entrepreneur's pharmaceutical company.

That fundamental structure has remained in place today: Red Bull outsources production and focuses on distribution (marketing).


4/

Mateschitz noticed the rise of extreme sports starting in the 1990s. He thought Red Bull should be a part of it.

The years since have seen the company amass an insane empire across sports, media, and apparel.
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MaMaMia \U0001f1ec\U0001f1f7\U0001f1e8\U0001f1fe\U0001f1e6\U0001f1f2 SupportGreekProducts
MaMaMia 🇬🇷🇨🇾🇦🇲 Support...
@MaMaMia73189983
Following @BAUDEGS I have experienced hateful and propagandist tweets time after time. I have been shocked that an academic community would be so reckless with their publications. So I did some research.
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?


Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir

BAU’s official Twitter account


BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU

Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find
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Cem Karsan \U0001f950
Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
1/x The window we have been targeting for 2 months has officially opened... i Can not imagine a more textbook display of the power of Vanna at expiration as we saw on Friday. The capital building was overrun by an insurrection, but all that that meant was a bigger late day rally.


2/x that ended at ATH on the close. Between Gary the 🦍 & his RVol suppression & his hand off to late day Ivol compression & the Vanna index bid, the 🐻’s never had a chance... but Gary’s getting tired after 2 months battling complacency & Vanna’s 2 week vacation, 1 of her only

3/x 2 week departures of the year (a 5 week OpEx) is quickly approaching on 1/15 morning. That means she’ll be increasingly absent as she prepares for her trip. W/ a $59 1 week straddle & $50 1 day range on Friday, & another $30 overnight drop, it’s hard to see why you wouldn’t

4/x want to take a chance on a little long gamma at this juncture. Especially given the obvious warning signs coming from the steepening of the yield curve, underperformance of the Growth complex, complacency in sentiment & positioning, anecdotal signs of bubbles in BTC & TSLA,

5/x NTM the growing exuberance surrounding a fiscal stimulus deal near $2 Trillion. The wall of worry of 3 months ago is gone. The vaccine is being deployed, the election is resolved, fiscal stimulus was passed & w/2 Georgia 🍑 🍑, ever moar 🚁💰is on the way. But what happened
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Andy Coates
Andy Coates
@AndyWoodturner
Went to make coffee. Opened fridge to get milk. Now...I was a refrigeration engineer, I had my own domestic appliance business, and I've seen things that would make your hair curl, but...the scene I was greeted by was frankly fucking horrific... 1/?

Everything in the fridge, butter, milk, eggs, some bacon, jars of stuff (except the mustard) had been torn to shreds...and was wet, from the milk presumably, and had turned black...2/?

I just stood and stared. The egg shells were there but broken, empty, and dry. The egg box in shreds. The butter had all gone and the lid had tell-tale holes. The unopened bacon all gone. The tray in tatters...3/?

I'd have taken a picture but it was disgusting...because...there were things in there that weren't in there on Friday. Turds. 6mm long, ovoid turds. I knew what they were obviously, but their presence INSIDE THE FUCKING FRIDGE was, is, troubling...How?4/?

A closer look, and this wasn't pleasant, what with all the black rancid milk and turds, revealed what looked like a hole at the corner of the interior, just under the evaporator..WTF! 5/?
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ArmaLite Andy\U0001f943\U0001f96f\u2615
ArmaLite Andy🥃🥯☕...
@Deep_Seas_Oil
Piper Alpha was an originally designed as an oil producing rig in the North Sea approximately 120 miles North East of Aberdeen, Scotland. It was a fixed leg platform in water depth of 475 Feet of water. The installation sat close to 275 Feet above water to the top of the derrick.


2) It started production in December 1976 for OPCAL joint venture. OPCAL being Occidental Petroleum Caledonia, Texaco Britain, Thomson PLC, and Texas Petroleum LTD. Occidental was the majority stakeholder at 36.5%


3) Occidental being majority stakeholder took control of technical and operational duties with running and operating the rig. When oil production started in 1976 it started with a flow of 250,000 BBL/day and eventually increasing this amount to 300,000 BBL/day.


4) 300,000 BBL/day would account for approximately 10% of the UK’s oil production at the time, so needless to say it was one of the most important rigs in the area. Any gas that was flowing would be flared or consumed by gas turbine generators


5) Around 1980 there was a decision to convert the rig to also process gas along with the oil. This was a major conversion, and if it would have been scoped in from the beginning, most likely construction of the rig would have been more accommodating for gas.
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I really enjoy writing right inside the Figma template. It helps give me a good sense of exactly how much "real estate" I have/have left before my time us up and I'm out of space.

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