BC BIDEN
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1/Today's Substack post is about Biden's chances of becoming a truly transformational president -- someone who will move U.S. economic policy onto a leftward track, as Reagan once moved it onto a rightward

 2/Political scientist Stephen Skowronek has a theory that says we're due for a "reconstructive" President who will define a new paradigm for the next few decades.

https://t.co/p1usloRmsD
3/Like most people, I thought Biden would be an incrementalist centrist who would get little done other than restoring competence and morality to the executive branch (and that alone would have been plenty of reason to vote for him!).
4/When I read Skowronek's theory, I read it as a prediction of a Bernie or Warren presidency.

I did not imagine that Biden could be a transformational president.

BUT, it's looking like he just might be one!
5/Check out @mehdirhasan's rundown of Biden's rapid blitz.

https://t.co/o6nqPL97S8
6/Or check out @drvolts' rundown of Biden's climate actions!

https://t.co/FrFhE1RLSp
7/Biden has done more executive actions in the first 3 weeks of his presidency than Obama and Trump combined at the equivalent mark. Here's a list.

https://t.co/UkqOTmu49E
8/His legislative agenda is breathtakingly bold. It's -- dare I say it? -- Rooseveltian.
9/Now, Biden might be stymied on the legislative front. Mitch McConnell might filibuster much of his agenda to death (though I'm remaining cautiously optimistic this will not happen).
10/But remember, this sort of happened to Ronald Reagan too!
11/Reagan's true transformational influence came from:

1. Executive actions and appointments that weakened unions and regulation, etc.

2. An enduring ideological shift, which led eventually to Clinton's welfare reform and deregulations.
12/In the same way, Biden might usher in a new age where economic progressivism -- in the form of government sending people cash -- is the norm, and leaders of BOTH parties compete to see who can do it better.

Maybe this is the first glimmer:

https://t.co/eOQEeeroo4
13/Maybe individual leaders' temperaments and preconceptions are less important than the necessities of the times in which they lead.

Maybe it's not Biden. Maybe it's COVID making America finally realize that Reaganism is inadequate to the challenges we face.
14/In other words, maybe Skowronek is right -- maybe it's simply TIME for a transformational President. Maybe Biden just happens to be the person that the Hand of Destiny tapped on the shoulder.

(end)

https://t.co/k5xqLQ88Xq
And remember, if you like this kind of content, sign up for my free email list and get it delivered direction to your inbox! :-)

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More from Noah Smith 🐇

Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Confession: I haven't the slightest interest in my genetic ancestry or where my ancestors came from or what they did.

I mean, my dad's family came from Lithuania. They changed their name from Kuznets in 1905. At some point they were blacksmiths. My mom's family came from Halychyna in Ukraine. I have no idea what they did. That's about all I know.

Oh, I do know that pretty much all of my extended family who stayed in Europe got wiped out by the Nazis.

I like to think that my ancestors were nothing and nobody. Random boring peasants with no special talents or wealth.

Except for Genghis Khan, of course. But he's everyone's ancestor.

The best thing about this approach is that I don't have anything to live up to. ;-)

(end)
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Today's @bopinion post is about how poor countries started catching up to rich ones.

It looks like decolonization just took a few decades to start

Basic econ theory says poor countries should grow faster than rich ones.

But for much of the Industrial Revolution, the opposite happened.
https://t.co/JjjVtWzz5c

Why? Probably because the first countries to discover industrial technologies used them to conquer the others!

But then colonial empires went away. And yet still, for the next 30 years or so, poor countries fell further behind rich ones.
https://t.co/hilDvv0IQV

Why??

Possible reasons:
1. Bad institutions (dictators, communism, autarkic trade regimes)
2. Civil wars
3. Lack of education

But then, starting in the 80s (for China) and the 90s (for India and Indonesia), some of the biggest poor countries got their acts together and started to catch up!


Global inequality began to fall.
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
Bloomberg Ideas conference now starting! I will be live-tweeting it. You can watch on our Facebook or Twitter pages (links below)!


Our first panel is about cryptocurrency! We have @matt_levine, @tylercowen, @eiaine, @nirkaissar, and Camilla

Ou: Crypto will be useful for the unbanked.

Cowen: Crypto has to compete against a bunch of other emerging payments technologies. Bitcoin is too inflexible.

Cowen: I'll bet on the payments companies over crypto.
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1/Alright, gather round, friends, and let me tell you the story of 1930s Japan, and how it's a cautionary tale for 2020s

2/Everyone knows that Japan became militarist, fascist, and (even more) expansionist in the 30s.

But what few people know is that this followed 6 years of coup attempts by EVEN MORE militarist/fascist/expansionist lunatics.

So let's review that history.


3/The first coup attempt was the March Incident in 1931.

Basically, some right-wing army officers planned to stage a riot to provoke martial law, and install a military dictator.

It failed when they couldn't get enough people to riot.


4/The coup plotters weren't really punished, so they just tried again a few months later. Some of their co-conspirators ratted them out and they failed again.

But AGAIN THEY WEREN'T PUNISHED! People defended them, saying they were simply too patriotic. 🤡


5/These coup plotters wanted the following:

1. A military dictator
2. Aggressive military action against Japan's rivals (i.e. every other country)
3. Increased colonial expansionism
4. Some mumbo-jumbo about cultural purity and economic egalitarianism
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/Politics thread time.

To me, the most important aspect of the 2018 midterms wasn't even about partisan control, but about democracy and voting rights. That's the real battle.

2/The good news: It's now an issue that everyone's talking about, and that everyone cares about.

3/More good news: Florida's proposition to give felons voting rights won. But it didn't just win - it won with substantial support from Republican voters.

That suggests there is still SOME grassroots support for democracy that transcends

4/Yet more good news: Michigan made it easier to vote. Again, by plebiscite, showing broad support for voting rights as an

5/OK, now the bad news.

We seem to have accepted electoral dysfunction in Florida as a permanent thing. The 2000 election has never really
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1. Wed. 20 Jan. Ron Giles: Guys this is the end of B*iden and the D*eep State.

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@AliVelshi
1/13
I have watched every presidential inauguration that I can remember, since I was a little boy, and long before I ever imagined I would live in America. But I had never watched one the way I watched the inauguration of Joe Biden. #velshi

2/13
I’d never considered the details leading up to an inauguration. I watched this one like a nervous parent, making sure everything went as planned. #velshi

3/13
Thanks to the last four years, everything is different, now. Our demons are on full display, our Union is certifiably imperfect. Our nation is divided. #velshi

4/13
After a year that takes first place in our history for death, destruction, fear and injustice, normalcy is struggling to regain its place. One thing with which we will struggle in this new day for America is the death of shame. #velshi

5/13
In addition to the other norms the former president destroyed, he turned lying - deliberate, casual and often with the force of law - into an art form and, with that, contributed to the death of shame. #velshi
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Steve Herman
Steve Herman
@W7VOA
Joseph R. Biden has just taken the oath of office as the 46th president of the United States.


"This is America's day. This is democracy's day," proclaims @POTUS @JoeBiden in inaugural speech. "At this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed."


"I know the forces that divide us are deep and they are real," says @POTUS.

#Twitter hasn't quite figured out this transition of power thing.


Meanwhile, over on @Facebook...
BIDEN
Ali Velshi
Ali Velshi
@AliVelshi
1/13
President Biden signed an executive order phasing out the federal govt's use of privatized prisons. It instructs the Justice dept. NOT to renew contracts with privately-operated prisons; a policy that was first implemented under Obama, then reversed in 2017 by Trump. #velshi

2/13
Private prisons are a stupid, amoral idea. So how did we end up with them in the first place? For starters, the U.S. is the most prolific incarcerator on the planet. That is a fact & it is not new. #velshi

3/13
2018 figures show the U.S. ranks number one when it comes to the total number of incarcerated people. It has roughly 300,000 more people that have been sentenced to prison than China does... which has literally one billion more in population. #velshi

4/13
What about prisoners as a percentage of the population? America for the win, again, with the highest rate of incarceration in the world, a great deal higher than the next country on the list, El Salvador. #velshi

5/13
Our prison system became so overwhelmed, partly due to misguided federal initiatives like The War on Drugs in the 80s and the 1994 Crime Bill, that it was forced to outsource help. #velshi
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Andrew Watkins
Andrew Watkins
@and_huh_what
THREAD/ Taliban's messaging/ approach to Biden admin's policy review:
-high-level meetings with top US adversaries
-insists foreign troops will be targeted if not gone by 1 May
-repeats accusations of US non-compliance with deal (and insists a delay in withdrawal would be same).

Taliban repeating their view of Doha deal: smoothed the way for US to leave after "unsuccessful" 20-year intervention. A "safe passage" deal.

The more Taliban insist they are meeting deal's conditions, the less need for a "review." Almost as if to pre-argue a US policy shift. /2

But no Western official or international audience is convinced by Taliban claims alone. Even Taliban can't believe that.

Who is Taliban's audience, as they display rigidity on the deal's terms and insist their interpretation is justified? /3

Perhaps Taliban reached a point where offering compromise/ flexibility to US on withdrawal would be perceived as too weak among its own ranks.

Or the interpretation & expectation of a swift return to power was genuine - and everything US did the past year seems like welching. /4

Or, regardless of internal discourse, current Taliban assessment could be that US/NATO will not leave by May deadline.

Since US does not seem to have begun re-negotiating or bargaining on a withdrawal extension, Taliban might feel boxed in by that, obliged to posture. /5
BIDEN

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How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
Good luck.

One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.
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Arif Hasan🇮🇳...
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5 star RSI Strategy by @VishalMalkan

Unconventional approach of 60-40 RSI and range shift concept.

According to him,
whenever the market is bearish,
it won’t be able to cross 60,
and whenever in a bullish trend,
it won’t be able to cross 40.

Like & Retweet for Maximum Reach.

So, instead of the 70-30 Relative Strength Index,
we will use the 60-40 range for the RSI indicator for this strategy.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI>60,
& when the RSI takes support at 40 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go below 40.

If a bullish candle is formed at the 40 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back, and one can enter the stock.

The stoploss can be placed at the low of that bullish candlestick,
and the target can be the 60 RSI level.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI<40,
& when the RSI takes resistance at 60 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go above 60

If a bearish candle is formed at the 60 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back from there, & 1 can enter the stock 4 shorting

The stoploss can be placed at the high of that bearish candlestick, and the target can be the 40 RSI levels.

#banknifty

This range shift concept can be applied in any timeframe,
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THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE

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#24hrstartup

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https://t.co/M75RAirZzs

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