Each output would print either Heads/Tails.
I have defined Heads as bullish, Tails as bearish.
2/n
Getting a lot of hate and negativity in DM's regarding whatever I have said on 9:20 straddle.
A thread on my opinion, and an experiment that I did.
Going to be a long one, I hope you don't get bored.
1/n
Each output would print either Heads/Tails.
I have defined Heads as bullish, Tails as bearish.
2/n
Basic 10th math - 50% chance of a coin toss returning heads or tails. So if I can get a R:R of > 1:3, I might be able to make this random simulation profitable.
3/n
1. Only 1 trade at 9:20 everyday, with fixed SL and target.
2. SL 50% of prem, target 4X of SL.
Ex : I buy ATM CE @ 100, my SL is 50 and target is 200.
3.If neither SL or target hit, exit at 3:25.
Here are the backtest results 👇👇
Would you trade this backtest result?
If you didn't know the logic, why wouldn't you trade this?
5/n
Now I just changed the rules slightly.
Instead of R:R of 1:4, now I will aim for 1:2, and here is what happens
6/n
So aiming for a R:R of 1:4 and this random strategy can be profitable.
So IMHO, the profitability of this system is due to it's R:R, and not theta or delta or vega.
Now let's relate this to 9:20 straddle.
Why 9:20? Why not strangles? Why not ITM options?
7/n
IMO, solely because one is quick in booking the loss making side and letting winners run.
Below attached is the BT of 9:20 straddle, SL 25% each leg
8/n
9/n
Say every data point is bearish, and some random spike took away
10/n
My main motive is to understand why am I being profitable on this trade,
11/n
My intention here is to say that I am not comfortable trading this way because it does not suit my temperament, if it does suit you, go ahead.
If my tweet makes you doubt your system, is it even worth trading it?
12/n
If you are such a trader who does not want to understand why the profit is coming into your account, and just want to take random trades because it is profitable in an excel backtest, go ahead.
13/n
14/n
Kudos to them
But my reason of not trading it is because I dont want to feel helpless when my own money is on the line.
15/n
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1/OK, data mystery time.
This New York Times feature shows China with a Gini Index of less than 30, which would make it more equal than Canada, France, or the Netherlands. https://t.co/g3Sv6DZTDE
That's weird. Income inequality in China is legendary.
Let's check this number.
2/The New York Times cites the World Bank's recent report, "Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World".
The report is available here:
3/The World Bank report has a graph in which it appears to show the same value for China's Gini - under 0.3.
The graph cites the World Development Indicators as its source for the income inequality data.
4/The World Development Indicators are available at the World Bank's website.
Here's the Gini index: https://t.co/MvylQzpX6A
It looks as if the latest estimate for China's Gini is 42.2.
That estimate is from 2012.
5/A Gini of 42.2 would put China in the same neighborhood as the U.S., whose Gini was estimated at 41 in 2013.
I can't find the <30 number anywhere. The only other estimate in the tables for China is from 2008, when it was estimated at 42.8.
This New York Times feature shows China with a Gini Index of less than 30, which would make it more equal than Canada, France, or the Netherlands. https://t.co/g3Sv6DZTDE
That's weird. Income inequality in China is legendary.
Let's check this number.
2/The New York Times cites the World Bank's recent report, "Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations Around the World".
The report is available here:
3/The World Bank report has a graph in which it appears to show the same value for China's Gini - under 0.3.
The graph cites the World Development Indicators as its source for the income inequality data.
4/The World Development Indicators are available at the World Bank's website.
Here's the Gini index: https://t.co/MvylQzpX6A
It looks as if the latest estimate for China's Gini is 42.2.
That estimate is from 2012.
5/A Gini of 42.2 would put China in the same neighborhood as the U.S., whose Gini was estimated at 41 in 2013.
I can't find the <30 number anywhere. The only other estimate in the tables for China is from 2008, when it was estimated at 42.8.
I'm going to do two history threads on Ethiopia, one on its ancient history, one on its modern story (1800 to today). 🇪🇹
I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):
The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹
Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹
References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹
I'll begin with the ancient history ... and it goes way back. Because modern humans - and before that, the ancestors of humans - almost certainly originated in Ethiopia. 🇪🇹 (sub-thread):
The famous \u201cLucy\u201d, an early ancestor of modern humans (Australopithecus) that lived 3.2 million years ago, and was discovered in 1974 in Ethiopia, displayed in the national museum in Addis Ababa \U0001f1ea\U0001f1f9 pic.twitter.com/N3oWqk1SW2
— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec) November 9, 2018
The first likely historical reference to Ethiopia is ancient Egyptian records of trade expeditions to the "Land of Punt" in search of gold, ebony, ivory, incense, and wild animals, starting in c 2500 BC 🇪🇹
Ethiopians themselves believe that the Queen of Sheba, who visited Israel's King Solomon in the Bible (c 950 BC), came from Ethiopia (not Yemen, as others believe). Here she is meeting Solomon in a stain-glassed window in Addis Ababa's Holy Trinity Church. 🇪🇹
References to the Queen of Sheba are everywhere in Ethiopia. The national airline's frequent flier miles are even called "ShebaMiles". 🇪🇹