Checking in on the energy investing framework as we approach year end 2020

First we revisit the rules. 1) Equities follow crude

2) Crude timespreads momentum dictates crude price momentum. Strengthening timespreads = strengthening crude price

3) Over the medium term, crude follows a) global inventories & b) Emerging Markets (BRICS) growth.

In a nutshell, as goes the global business cycle, so goes the energy cycle

#1 Crude vs OECD inventories #2 Crude vs BRICs GDP

The energy cycle consists of inventory build & draw periods

Draws=bullish
Builds=bearish

Energy equities (red, inverted) and crude inventories