Authors Dean Sheikh
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2020 Predictions Report Card
Item 1 - Tesla will lose more money in 2020 than 2019.
❌
I missed this one clearly. Didn't realize that they could recognize three years of credits in a single year, because I was using GAAP. Tesla does not appear to be conforming to GAAP here.
Doubt the auditors make a stink about it but who knows.
Also note that the total net income for the first nine months of 2020 ($451M) matches almost exactly the increase in A/R balance ($433M). A/R balance is now 1.76B, dwarfing their reported profits of $451M.
Item 2 - Model S will be discontinued.
✔️❌
They didn't discontinue. They dropped the price $10,000 instead. Combining this will the price cuts in 2019, including free EAP, gross margins for the Model S are now decisively negative. Giving myself partial credit on this one. (:
Item 3 - Model Y price will be cut $2K after initial orders are filled.
✔️
Ding ding ding. Prices were cut $3K right after initial backlog was filled.
Item 4 - MY SR+ will be released
❌
Missed this one. My best guess is that M3 SR+ are so low, they don't want to offer a similar MY variant.
2020 Predictions Report Card
Item 1 - Tesla will lose more money in 2020 than 2019.
❌
I missed this one clearly. Didn't realize that they could recognize three years of credits in a single year, because I was using GAAP. Tesla does not appear to be conforming to GAAP here.
2020 Predictions:
— Dean Sheikh (@DeanSheikh1) January 19, 2020
Tesla will lose more money in 2020 than in 2019.
The Model S will be discontinued.
MY prices will be cut $2K+ after the first batch of suckers make their purchase.
MY SR+ will come out this year to hide lack of growth from the weakest retail investors.
Doubt the auditors make a stink about it but who knows.
Also note that the total net income for the first nine months of 2020 ($451M) matches almost exactly the increase in A/R balance ($433M). A/R balance is now 1.76B, dwarfing their reported profits of $451M.
Item 2 - Model S will be discontinued.
✔️❌
They didn't discontinue. They dropped the price $10,000 instead. Combining this will the price cuts in 2019, including free EAP, gross margins for the Model S are now decisively negative. Giving myself partial credit on this one. (:
Item 3 - Model Y price will be cut $2K after initial orders are filled.
✔️
Ding ding ding. Prices were cut $3K right after initial backlog was filled.
Item 4 - MY SR+ will be released
❌
Missed this one. My best guess is that M3 SR+ are so low, they don't want to offer a similar MY variant.