It’s true that Labour cannot form the next government without winning back most of the “Red Wall” seats it lost.

But the leadership has come to some odd decisions over its Brexit strategy as a result.

Let’s look at the polling. From @OpiniumResearch last week, we can see that of 3 options:

a trade deal with close alignment to the EU
a trade deal with a clear break from the EU
No Deal

Only the close alignment option is acceptable to more people than unacceptable. 2/12

If we just look at the people who find each option unacceptable, out of All Voters, Labour voters *and* 2019 Labour Leave voters, all groups find a deal with a clear break more unacceptable than a deal with close alignment. 3/12

So it hardly feels like electoral suicide for Labour to explicitly argue for a deal with close alignment. This is particularly true since Labour’s current poll lead with @YouGov comes mainly from the one third of 2019 Lib Dem voters who now say they would back Labour. 4/12

75% of 2019 Lib Dem Remainers think a “clear break” deal is unacceptable, so there is considerable risk in alienating these voters by Labour backing a Tory deal with the EU which will inevitably mean a very hard Brexit.