THREAD Last night’s vote against delaying the budget deadline means nothing can stop the Knesset dissolving @ midnight. Election on 23.3. I explained in @haaretzcom last month why Netanyahu doesn’t want a March election. Too many factors beyond his

A March election means the campaign will be dominated by 3 events beyond Netanyahu’s control: 1. 3rd wave of covid crashing down on Israel before vaccines have an impact 2. From January 20, a much less friendly administration in the US 3. Early February his bribery trial resumes

Netanyahu’s biggest advantage is that he’s going in to the election serving PM with control over the critical finance and health ministries. Gantz and his B&W ministers will remain in office but have much less power as discredited members of a zombie

Netanyahu’s campaign is going to have 2 themes: Only I could have brought millions of vaccines early to Israel (expect another show when he gets his 2nd jab) and my diplomacy brought peace with Arab states (he’s desperate to visit the UAE during the campaign). No-one else could.

Netanyahu’s biggest problem going in to the election, he won’t have Gantz to kick around any more and brand “weak left” but much more experienced right-wing challengers determined to take him out. Sa’ar, Bennett, Lieberman. Sa’ar tried and failed last