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1/ Today has brought a lot of news about 'variants', as we discover community transmission of B.1.351 (SA variant) in the UK.
But some of the people who study these genomes have increasingly started focusing on a different concept: 'constellations', which may be more useful.
2/ We're actually all using 'variant' wrong anyway – we're using it to refer to a 'lineage'. A lineage is a set of viruses descended from a common ancestor. All B.1.1.7 (UK variant) viruses descend from an infection that probably occurred in August or September.
3/ But what makes this lineage practically important is that it carries a set of mutations which make it more transmissible.
I.e. we don't really care about the ancestry in itself.
4/ For example, one of the mutations that we think is important to B.1.1.7's faster transmission is called N501Y.
5/ It turns out that a lot of the lineages identified as important recently, in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK, have mutations such as N501Y in common (figure adapted from https://t.co/lpJeW0GGnU)
But some of the people who study these genomes have increasingly started focusing on a different concept: 'constellations', which may be more useful.
2/ We're actually all using 'variant' wrong anyway – we're using it to refer to a 'lineage'. A lineage is a set of viruses descended from a common ancestor. All B.1.1.7 (UK variant) viruses descend from an infection that probably occurred in August or September.
3/ But what makes this lineage practically important is that it carries a set of mutations which make it more transmissible.
I.e. we don't really care about the ancestry in itself.
4/ For example, one of the mutations that we think is important to B.1.1.7's faster transmission is called N501Y.
5/ It turns out that a lot of the lineages identified as important recently, in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK, have mutations such as N501Y in common (figure adapted from https://t.co/lpJeW0GGnU)
THREAD: one more time on the need for citizens to understand the need for, then demand, then deliberate on, then manage - a total pivotal change. Next tweet..what is a pivot and why we need one 1/
We all did this as kids: Walk up a see-saw, you keep going fine until you cross the fulcrum then WHAM! It flips.This is what happens in nature when resources are used up faster than they are replenished. All goes fine until nearly half are used up. All who study biology know..2/
This flip is a population crash. It is natural. Important to know: the crash comes after the point where more resources are being used up than are being replenished. There is a period of overshoot. The crash comes some time after overshoot. Can that happen to humans? 3/
According to Joseph Tainter (1988) there have been three:
Ancient Rome
Mayan Civilisation
Ancestral Puebloans
Modern society is exhibiting all the signs (Club of Rome 1972) 4/
https://t.co/ND85PXV9MB
All of this is well-known by scholars. But somehow it does not seem to have sunk in with citizens in general. The urgency. So let me say it again in a retweet-worthy way 5/
We all did this as kids: Walk up a see-saw, you keep going fine until you cross the fulcrum then WHAM! It flips.This is what happens in nature when resources are used up faster than they are replenished. All goes fine until nearly half are used up. All who study biology know..2/
This flip is a population crash. It is natural. Important to know: the crash comes after the point where more resources are being used up than are being replenished. There is a period of overshoot. The crash comes some time after overshoot. Can that happen to humans? 3/
According to Joseph Tainter (1988) there have been three:
Ancient Rome
Mayan Civilisation
Ancestral Puebloans
Modern society is exhibiting all the signs (Club of Rome 1972) 4/
https://t.co/ND85PXV9MB
All of this is well-known by scholars. But somehow it does not seem to have sunk in with citizens in general. The urgency. So let me say it again in a retweet-worthy way 5/
This potential benefit list from CPTPP is not the longest and is still misleading. Those Malaysian whisky tariffs - emilimated over 15 years (if they don't seek any specific exemption for UK). Those rules of origin benefits? Only apply to import / export to CPTPP countries. https://t.co/9TbheOVhsR
Here's my more realistic take on CPTPP. Economic gains limited, but politically in terms of trade this makes some sort of sense, these are likely allies. DIT doesn't say this, presumably the idea of Australia or Canada as our equal upsets them.
As previously noted agriculture interests in Australia and New Zealand expect us to reach generous agreements in WTO talks and bilaterals before acceding to CPTPP. So this isn't a definite. Oh and Australia wants to know if we'll allow hormone treated beef
Ultimately trade deals are political, and the UK really wants CPTPP as part of the pivot to indo-pacific, and some adherents also hope it forces us to change food laws without having to do it in a US deal (isn't certain if this is the case or not).
If we can accede to CPTPP without having to make changes to domestic laws it is fine. Just shouldn't be our priority, as it does little for services, is geographically remote, and hardly cutting edge on issues like climate change or animal welfare.
Tomorrow we will formally apply to join #CPTPP \U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
— Liz Truss (@trussliz) January 31, 2021
Membership will help drive an export- led, jobs-led recovery across \U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7 bringing more opportunities to trade with fast growing Pacific nations. \U0001f30e
Read more here\U0001f447https://t.co/5sQhgW4vCM
Here's my more realistic take on CPTPP. Economic gains limited, but politically in terms of trade this makes some sort of sense, these are likely allies. DIT doesn't say this, presumably the idea of Australia or Canada as our equal upsets them.
Gather UK application to join CPTPP is finally about to be announced, not that it was exactly a secret. Economic value limited given distance and existing UK deals, not a particularly strong or modern agreement in areas of UK strength like services, but...
— David Henig (@DavidHenigUK) January 30, 2021
As previously noted agriculture interests in Australia and New Zealand expect us to reach generous agreements in WTO talks and bilaterals before acceding to CPTPP. So this isn't a definite. Oh and Australia wants to know if we'll allow hormone treated beef
Ultimately trade deals are political, and the UK really wants CPTPP as part of the pivot to indo-pacific, and some adherents also hope it forces us to change food laws without having to do it in a US deal (isn't certain if this is the case or not).
If we can accede to CPTPP without having to make changes to domestic laws it is fine. Just shouldn't be our priority, as it does little for services, is geographically remote, and hardly cutting edge on issues like climate change or animal welfare.
A quick and easy step by step guide on how to deal with online harassment.
I was going to make a video on this but my face is too puffy from crying my eyes out last night.
If you look at what my former friends said last night, it’s pretty disgusting.
Compare that to my direct interactions with them.
Why not call them out by name? It’s called class. I don’t even call out my harasser by name.
I spent the evening discouraging people to not speak out in my defense. It leads to further problems.
Anyways, here we go.
Step 1. Google your name.
If you’re an anon account, what you need to do is Google your username in various combos with your actual name.
For example:
[username] + Sarah
[username] + home state
[username] + employer
If you can find it, someone else can, too.
Simple stuff.
Step 2. The quickest/easiest way to be identified is using the same username on multiple SoMe platforms.
Everyone is on multiple platforms. If you’re posting pics or list your name, it’ll be found.
An anon shared identities w me using this method. I ignored the info.
I was going to make a video on this but my face is too puffy from crying my eyes out last night.
If you look at what my former friends said last night, it’s pretty disgusting.
Compare that to my direct interactions with them.
Why not call them out by name? It’s called class. I don’t even call out my harasser by name.
I spent the evening discouraging people to not speak out in my defense. It leads to further problems.
Anyways, here we go.
Step 1. Google your name.
If you’re an anon account, what you need to do is Google your username in various combos with your actual name.
For example:
[username] + Sarah
[username] + home state
[username] + employer
If you can find it, someone else can, too.
Simple stuff.
Personal safety involves a combo of Google searches. We need to assess what info is publicly available.
— Sarah Mojarad (@Sarah_Mojarad) December 8, 2020
Google the important info:
Name
Phone number
Address
Name + address
Phone number + address
Family members
Folks, your safety is important. Do this NOW before the harassment.
Step 2. The quickest/easiest way to be identified is using the same username on multiple SoMe platforms.
Everyone is on multiple platforms. If you’re posting pics or list your name, it’ll be found.
An anon shared identities w me using this method. I ignored the info.
