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The real danger for the country isn’t the election results, it’s the reaction to, and the refusal to accept the results. For more than four years, Trump and the Right Wing Media Echo Chamber have conditioned his supporters to believe the election is “rigged”. They believe it….1/

In a recent thread about collective election anxiety/PTSD, I wrote that “one half the country doesn’t believe in evidence, the other half can’t trust it.” 2/


This couldn’t more evident than by the fact that 87 percent of Trump supporters believe he will win re-election, despite the fact that… 3/

…the empirical data that shows Biden *should* win easily. This has resulted in https://t.co/e8JNg5tYmK calculating that Trump has only a 10% chance of winning. To be clear, 10% is a non-zero number, much like the 30% chance that Trump had in 2016. 4/

But the real problem isn’t necessarily about low probabilities, the real problem…..or more accurately, the danger…..lies in the pathologically unrealistic expectations of the cult of Trump: 90% of them have been conned into thinking that a 10% probability is a “sure thing”. 5/
The White House will be won or lost in these eight battleground states – and Biden is leading in all but one https://t.co/rtXPTpdbnr


In Arizona, Trump’s handling of the pandemic is proving costly, leaving him struggling to match his 2016 performance among those over the age of 65
https://t.co/TTHvr8Sclg


Republicans typically hold a slight edge in absentee ballot returns in Florida elections. But this year, for the first time ever at this stage of a general election, Democrats here are outvoting Republicans — and by a huge margin https://t.co/BCsVccVn1Y


Most of the attention in Georgia this year is directed toward Atlanta’s populous suburbs, which have turned hard against Republicans in the Trump era, But the outcome might come down to a less scrutinized force in this state: white rural voters https://t.co/2W17tsDVyf


All three Rust Belt states that Trump improbably won in 2016 — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are problematic for the president this year. But Michigan is where things look bleakest. https://t.co/aQo6KIQZVH