I have been working on pandemic outbreaks for 15 years.

There is a misunderstanding of the difference between the response in much of the West, versus successful countries (including New Zealand and Australia).

Summarizing:

1.Reactive versus proactive and goal oriented.

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2.Mitigation (slowing transmission) versus elimination (stopping transmission)

3.Gradually responding to increasing levels of infection by imposing greater restrictions which enables the infection rate to grow (red zone strategy), …

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versus starting with high restrictions to arrest transmission and relaxing restrictions only when the number of new cases is so low that contact tracing or localized short term action can stop community transmission (green zone strategy, including localized "fire fighting").

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4.Trying to keep economic activity and travel as open as possible but perpetuating the economic harm and imposing yoyo restrictions, versus making an initial sacrifice of economic activity and travel in order to benefit from the rapid restoration of normal economic activity.

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5.Focusing attention on few individuals resistant to social action because of shortsightedness or selfishness, versus recognizing the vast majority do the right thing if given clear guidance and support, which is what matters for success, as elimination is a robust strategy.

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UK variant update:

50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.

No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.

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https://t.co/D8DXVvBeew

50% higher infection rate

(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)

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Main effect in children under 9 years old

(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)

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Essential to stop the UK variant: 50% higher transmission will lead to more cases, more hospitalizations, more ICU cases, more deaths, and greater economic costs.

Independent SAGE's plan for the UK variant

With the new Covid variant everywhere, it's not enough to just wait for the vaccine | Stephen Reicher