#Nifty Muti-timeframe Analysis of #Momentum
In #Raghumantra classes we elaborate how "stretched" and "fatigued" momentum has to be observed & distinguished from one another.
Weekly momentum is inching towards getting "stretched" but nowhere near "fatigued".
1/n
#stockmarkets

#Nifty Daily chart momentum studies illustrate oscillator faling to keep pace with price-swing but with a reading of 77+ is nowhere near to being "fatigued".It would take a couple of more dips and new swing highs to display that (fatigue) so "buy on dips" remains the mantra,
2/n

#Nifty 75min & 15min charts are the tools for "buying that dip". While 17525 is THE THRESHOLD for keeping long bias (below it should get alarmed), 17650 spot is the best buy point
n/n
For learning/finetuning technical skills, join #Raghumantra Classes
#WhatsApp 8595884101

When I first started learning different option strategies, long straddles seemed the easiest and the way to riches without any significant risk.

Simply buy a CE and PE of same strike before an event, whichever way rhe stock moves post event you make money

But real life is a tougher place, so this did not work in practice 🤣

Vols went up before event pricing in the risk, and since vols over estimate event impact in general, majority of the time there is a vol crush post event and straddles lose money. ( this is why sellers sell)

But the markets now is a strange place. Vols refuse to go up before an event. We have GDP data today evening and Gujarat election results within next weekly expiry. The cost is 1.3% of Nifty for the next week straddle with 8DTE .

So whoever is selling this straddle does not expect Nifty to move 1.3% from here, either up or down within next Thursday? Does not make sense.
Vols not rising before event makes it a no brainer to buy this straddle

With vols not going up before event and with such low vols, chances of further vol crush are slim. Plus, even if markets now go up further, I think traders will get a bit nervous/fearful pushing vols up.

Let's see whether my thesis works out 🙏

Nifty fut : rising Lows and Highs, showing a megaphone or broadening formation on 15 min charts. Though a bearish pattern, here it seems has broken out. 11k CEs on monthlies seems badly trapped. As long as the CE is > 140, will maintain a strong bullish stance

EOD charts. Rising after strong accumulation and volumes. COI going up with rise in price. Can have a fast upmove anytime now till 11300. View negated below 10900

BNF 15 min charts : showing FLAG formation. Breakout above 22400, trade negated below 22200. Targets given in chart. Also higher highs and higher lows

BNF also strong accumulation yesterday. This model is also showing continuous accumulation since 16th. Almost same levels given in earlier tweet

Now there are broad positional views, or the context. Trades now will be based on realtime data , option analysis etc. But these analysis suggests keeping a bullish bias on the indices while trading now unless this data changes drastically

I have received lot of queries on exit strategy. Just a few points that will help start the process of finding a suitable exit strategy as per your own comfort. Please note I have worked a lot on this aspect of trading/investing but still not perfected it as yet.

Exit Based on Fundamentals

Valuations are expensive and future prospects are priced in fully
Investment thesis does not play out as expected or significant deterioration in underline business
Better risk reward opportunity is available
Corporate Governance Issues, Fraud

Bases on Technical Strategies

Initial Stop Loss – it could be fixed or trailing. This is a tricky choice between fixed or trailing stop losses. Past data of MAX ADVERSE EXCURSION will be very useful in deciding this. There is a fantastic thread on MDE by @InvesysCapital

Trail Stop loss

1. % based - As the price moves in favorable direction after certain % move stop loss follows the price.
2. Indicator Based – Popular indicators like PSAR or Super Trend used to trail stop loss
3. Volatility based - ATR, DEVstop, Bollinger Bands can be used

Profit Booking

1. Fixed Target – This is the simplest of the strategies. This can be based on simple resistance support or based on previous data of trades or on % basis.

$BTC #Bitcoin

Liqidation levels (estimation), 25x-100x

Pretty accurate game theory tho ..

best on 4h

Lets add some Barmaui Bands (volatility) and VWAP

and you make some system ..

Add just finish with funding and custom all in one: mfi, Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channel, a/b/c waves ..
and bottom is trend meter ..

#btc 2021

here is the explanation:

this study uses the standard deviations of an anchored VWAP from the previous ATH to project possible outcomes of the current bull run.

Price has been moving significantly similar to the 2017 run as it can be seen on the following charts.

Notice the similarities in both bear markets.

Similarities in this bull run so far:
1. After reclaiming the 1st St Dev the bull run is initiated
2. The 3rd St Dev shows 2 corrections in both, in this case shallower as the run is showing more strength.
3. 5th st dev reject (tbc)

If price keeps behaving in a similar manner, we could expect the following corrections (prob shallower nonetheless):

1. 40k -> 28k
2. 45k -> 27k
3. 76k -> 45k
4. 120k -> 84k
5. 175k -> 135k
6. 265k -> 200k

Top = 300k.

I know it sounds ridiculous but better be prepared.

Adding confluence to this thread.

The Puell Multiple is at the same level as the one obtained by using the anchored vwap deviations.

#TRADING
#BANKNIFTY Pivot + vwap trading system

A) Short - 1) close less than ema200, prev day vwap, cam l3, floor pivot low; 2) distance between prev day vwap and cam l3 & floor pivot low should not be more than 1.5% (to avoid over extension); 3)vwap less than ema200
OR
--1/n

...................2/n
B) Price high crosses down weekly pivot high.
OR
C) Price crosses down camarilla h3 and candle low is lower than prev candle low.

Position taking between 945 am till 245 pm.

Cover at close or when price crosses 2 std deviations above current vwap or when price crosses weekly pivot low from downwards or when price crosses daily pivot low from downwards.

Backtest results since feb 2019 :
Annual return 43%
Drawdown 2.6%
Profit factor 1.9
Winning trades 50%
Timeframe 5 min chart

Intraday data for Bnf futures not available before 2019 for increasing the sample size.

1/n) Below is tweet storm of my journey into public market investing/trading, how I learned, and a thank you to those who have helped (direct & indirect) along the way:

It was 3 years ago just before Easter we were on our way to Amsterdam for 10 days (it was a work trip for my

2/n) wife, I invited myself). During the days while she had work and I was working remote, I began my quest to learn about public market investing. Reason is, majority of net worth at the time had been tied up in Commercial Real Estate (co-investing in our investments for my “day

3/n) job”). I felt valuations were beginning to get frothy and wanted diversification/liquidity for the next real estate cycle. Enter reading Security Analysis. Value intuitively made sense. This led me to @PrestonPysh @stig_brodersen , which led me to @Greenbackd work in Deep

4/n) Value. Quant & testing immediately made sense to me. I’ve always been a process guy at everything I’ve ever excelled in. “Less being more” and one metric that tested well made sense. Shortly found Greenblatt’s books & after seeing his returns I was astonished. 2017 was a

5/n) year I implemented an Acquirer’s Multiple based value strategy and thanks to FCAU, had a great year beating SPY.

During this time, I started listening to @MebFaber podcast and learning more about systems trading and trend. In stark contrast with value, I was wrestling

Most wanna be day traders perceive intraday trading as "enter into the trade in the morning and hold it till end of day"

It is not like that.

Intraday trading is all about trading tradable intraday moves or swings.
1/n

For Nifty, intraday moves/swings are usually of 40+ points and are tradable. For stocks or commodities, depending upon its volatility it can be 1-2%.

Any trading system, which allows us to trade such intraday moves consistently with good accuracy and RR, is a good system.

2/n

For example, have a look at current #NIFTYFUTURE intra chart. There were 3 tradable swings of 40+ points.

In order to become a successful trader, it is not necessary to trade all such moves or catch big moves. Trading only one such move is more than enough.

3/n

My #intraday trading system allowed me to trade two swing moves. Instead of trading #NIFTYFUTURE I opted to trade options today, 11800CE of 31st Oct expiry

First setup was to go long when it took support at PDC and another one was to go short when it got rejected from high
4/n

First long trade entry at 48, part booked 50% at 65 and booked rest at 78. Second trade, short, entry at 70, part booked 50% at 58 and rest at 81

Net gain from two trades = 24 points/lot

I just need to keep repeating the same trading process everyday to gain from intraday.
5/5

$BTC falling hard- soon to touch lows from last "crash" selloff

Sold all $BTC moved all into $ADA

ADA IS THE WAY

$ADA 📈 5.03% > $BTC 📈 3.18%%

If your anything of a technical trader- you have to LOVE the charts on crypto right now ALL timeframes $ETH $BTC $COIN $ADA $LINK $LTC going to be a good next couple day's running 🤑📈 $ADA though all the way
10,13,30,50 MA top to bottom

$BTC 2H & Daily Chart- hook out thru next 30 day prediction (70k by 5/30/21) we're taking $ADA and $DOGE to the moon with us 🚀

🚨How To Chart Fibs🚨

Everyday we get asked how/where we chart our Fibonacci Retracement levels

Here’s a quick guide I made to help:

•Use daily chart to find range high & low
•Plot high & low in chronological order
•Use as intraday R/S with confluence

Hope this helps 🤝

Hello traders!
Do you try to understand what is price doing? If not, let me help you.

Price can be either in a trend or range. If it is in trend, it may have either momentum or lack of momentum. If it is in range, it may have either high volatility or low volatility.

1/n

Price cannot do anything else other than these four. As a trader, our first job whenever we look at the price chart, is to try to figure out what price is doing. Is there
Trend with momentum
or
Trend with lack of momentum
or
Range with high vol
or
Range with low vol

2/n

Now let me show you a daily chart of #banknifty of year 2019. First chart with big picture. It clearly shows price in a phase of "range with high volatility."

3/n

Now the same chart of #banknifty but with more understanding of all four phases of price action at different times of the year 2019.

4/n

So now after having it analyzed, we can say that currently #banknifty is in broad range of 32k to 26.5k with high volatility with CMP closer to bottom of range.

5/n

#TrendFollowing
#StockFutures
The Complete #Trading #Process

1) Stock Selection - Buy Strongest, Sell Weakest. Combine Higher TimeFrame to Identify Strength/ Weakness

2) Entry SetUp - Enough FirePower for Sustainable Trend Going Forward (1/n)

3)Trend Confirmation - That Point from which chances of Reversal are Low so as to achieve Higher Win Rate

4) Low Risk Entry - Costs Saved in Execution are added back to profit. Use Mkt Fluctuations in Our Favour (2/n)

5) Initial SL- Uncle Point. Not Too Tight, Not Too Loose, Just About Perfect. Let the trade breath before leaping forward

6) Trailing SL - Reduce Open Risk in Trade Continuously Simultaneously allowing Trend to Develop (3/n)

7) Profit Booking - Don't Look for Top/ Bottom. Catch 70-80% of Max Profit. Most Difficult Decision. No Perfect Exit. Break in Multiple Exits. Be happy with Whatever We Get (n/n)

#TrendFollowing
#SystemTrading
#StopLoss

In TrendFollwoing, We Look To Enter Trade & Keep Holding as Long as It is in Our Favour. Initial Stop Loss Is Important Part of System Trading.
How To Decide What Should Be Initial StopLoss? (1/n)

Too Tight StopLoss Will get Stopped Out Frequently.
Too Loose Will Cause Bigger Loss & LessRR.
What Is Optimum StopLoss?

We Need To Generate Data on What is Called Minimum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE Is The Max Amount By Which Trade Goes Against Us From Entry Point (2/n)

MAE Can Be Measure in Amount Or Percentage Or ATR. We calculate MAE In ATR so as to adjust for Different Volatility of Different Scrips. Here You Can See The Data for MAE in ATR For Our #Stock #Futures #Swing #Trading System For Long & Short Trades For December (3/n)

Visual Look Tells That Price Doesn't Go Against Us By More Than 2 ATR in More Than 95% Of Trades. So We Can Safely Take 2 ATR StopLoss For Our Trades From Entry Point. Also, More Than 90% Of The Trade Show Loss After Entry Which Can Be Used To Decide Level Of PullBack Entry (4/4)

This System is Based on 25Min TimeFrame & 75 Candle ATR. Every System Uses Different Entry Method, Different TimeFrame For Signal Generation & Different No Of Candles For ATR. So Don't Assume 2 ATR is Universal Stoploss. See What Suits Your System & Then Develop Own StopLoss (5)

I have got some queries about how I manage the weekly stocks that I keep posting on twitter. But first standard disclosure I am not a SEBI registered adviser and all trades posted are only for educational purpose and is in no way buying or selling recommendation.

I run 3 portfolios 1. #momentum trading portfolio (based on charts) this is based mostly on weekly charts I post on Twitter. 2. Stocks based on #fundamentals mostly growth stocks I do buy few value stocks but not many. 3. Some discretionary trades in Index options and in cash mkt

Main reason to start the thread is to explain how I run the momentum trading portfolio based on charts. This is run on a system and entry and exit is based on the set parameters. Only discretion I use is on whether I should take the trade or no.

So I buy max 25 stocks with each having 4% weight. Stock selection has no view on fundamentals and has no particular bias to any market cap. Entry and Exit can be on any day during trading hours. I follow a strict 10% stop loss to start and then trail the stop loss.

Currently I am holding 24 stocks in the portfolio. Average gain here is 10.4% & average loss is -1.79% I have attached a screenshot of current open portfolio with 10Lakh investment. Total gain on the portfolio is 143055/- with mtm gains of 87835/- & booked profits of 55220/-

Directional Bias Explained - Thread

1. What is DB?
- explicit expectation of a direction in the market
- probability enhancer; longs superior success rate in bullish DB, shorts superior success rate in bearish DB
- helps improve target selection & trade management (confluent with DB)

2. Constant vs. Situational DB
Constant DB = trading system virtually always offers a
directional preference (deriving price from moving average)
Situational DB = ts only offers a directional bias under specific circumstances (price decisively closes below a daily support)

3. Affect of DB on Trade Selection & Trade Management
- long when DB bullish; short when DB bearish
- disallow all trades against DB unless there are extremely unusual circumstances (sig. news, tremendous R:R)
- helps silence intraday noise
- adjust TP when DB is strong

4. Affect of DB II
A. Target should be derived from high time frame charts (not intraday)
B. Intraday trouble areas (ITA) still useful for trade management (adjusting stop loss etc.)
C. ITA anticipated to fail as DB unfolds
D. broken ITA provides excellent compounding opp.

#BollingerBand Squeeze Breakout

Sharing An Entry Set-up For Cash Market Since Cash Market Is Running Hot Currently

Bollinger Bands Are Volatility Bands with Centre line, Upper & Lower Band

Centre Line Is Simple Moving Average

Default Is 20 Period Simple Moving Average

Upper & Lower Bands are constructed by Adding / Subtracting Standard Deviation Values from SMA

Default is 2 Standard Deviation Away from 20 SMA for Upper & Lower Band

During Trending Phase, Bollinger Bands generally expand as Standard Deviation Expands in Trending Phase

During consolidation standard deviation drops, causing Upper & Lower Bands to contract towards centre line

This Gives the look like bands are getting squeezed, hence the name Bollinger Band Squeeze Breakout

Entry Setup occurs as below:

1. After Good Rally, Price takes pause, goes in consolidation of few weeks, typically 3-8 weeks

2. Bollinger Bands tighten or Squeeze, indicating volatility contraction

3. While bands are in squeeze, price rises to Upper Band

4. After Touching Upper Band, Price is Rejected

5. price Rejection creates Lower Low on Daily charts, which is called Bearish Fractal

6. High Point from Which price is rejected & creates Bearish Fractal become Breakout Point

1/n

Why Orderflow Charts?

Lets explain this with some basics comparing Candlestick Chart with Ordeflow Chart

Order flow candle shows the contract volume traded on the seller side (left) and contract volume on the buyer side (right) on each single price level...

#orderflow

2 / n

Why this additional info important to the trader?

Trader is now

1. Closer to the actual market happenings
2. Gets an insight to the candle
3. Receives in depth market information in real-time
4. Can see the volume on each price level separated in buyers and sellers ...

3/n

5. Can discover price and volume patterns that cannot be seen with a regular candle chart
6. Can see how the buy and sell orders affect the price
7. Better assessment of whether the market will continue its trend

More self-confidence when trading...

4/n

Most Common Order Flow Chart Types

1. Volume Order Flow Chart

2. Bid x Ask Order Flow Chart

3. Delta Order Flow Chart

5/n

Volume Orderflow Chart

Basically this gives you the Volume Profile of every Candle

[1/X] Attempt to explain Orderflow basics. It will be a long thread but will try to make the content worth the read.

Below is a Depth of Market (DOM). The
Blue ones = Bid Limit orders
Red ones = Ask Limit orders

So what happens to these orders in the trade cycle

#Basics

[2/X] Such limit orders are invariable absorbed by the Market Orders.

It is the Market Orders that drive the markets up and down.

Lesson # 1: Every auction starts with a Bid and an Ask
Lesson # 2: Market orders move the price

[3/X] So how do we track these market orders. We track them on the Footprint aka Cluster charts

GREEN = Buy Market Orders
RED = SELL Market Orders

Market Orders indicate Aggresiveness

[4/X] So what you see on the Foorpint aka Cluster chart is Market Orders and what you see on DOM are the Limit Orders i.e., orders waiting to be executed.

Lesson # 3: A Market Order buys/sells a Limit Order

PS: Exceptions to every rule exist

[5/X] When the buyers are aggressive, they will take out all the Limit Orders on the Ask side.

Similarly when sellers are aggressive, they will take out all the Limit Orders on the Bid side

This can clearly be seen on the Footprint Chart