I spoke with Chris Wood of Jefferies post US inflation data. 20 min chat on markets.

(Link - https://t.co/El8K1GOw2E)

TOP 25 takeaways,

1. Double whammy of higher rates & b/s tightening

2. Will be astonished if S&P-50 doesn’t fall by atleast 30% from peak

#StockMarket (1/8)

3. After a 30% fall S&P-500, market will become very receptive to any hints about Fed changing stance

4. A > than 30% fall would need markets to stay down & then big retail outflows

#StockMarket (2/8)

5. Key question is if Fed's changes language later this yr

6. Huge political pressure from Washington on Fed

7. All opinion polls in US show inflation No.1 issue for Americans

8. For 1st time in > 40 yrs, we have pressure from political establishment on Fed

#StockMarket (3/8)

9. U.S. consumer confidence has fallen dramatically, could be mix of inflation & stocks falling

10. Cash buffers with U.S. consumers built up during pandemic running thin now, could be losses in stocks or crypto

#StockMarket (4/8)

11. U.S. CPI will keep inflation story bubbling

12. May CPI will make the market assume that the next hike will be 50 bps

13. Problem is that the Fed is so far behind the curve, that they need to impose real rates now & they are nowhere close

#StockMarket (5/8)