It is somewhat hard to know which strand on England's November lockdown to pick apart - a large number of people in the press (and twitter) are commenting ("hot takes" in the US parlance) - most heat and not so much light.

Yesterday, before the announcement, I tweeted on this here: https://t.co/HmaMSwbqQ1
I'd also recommend @AdamJKucharski's tweet thread on this https://t.co/UN7tTt95dQ and @JeremyFarrar's here https://t.co/dCYmUdE4gJ
I can feel quite a few people processing this, and those people in media positions, via their public personas. It's unsurprising there is concern, angst and questions, even though if you had been following the numbers, SAGE and other debates it was well sign posted
So - in this tweet thread I want to remind people why this is different to March - it *really* is, and then I will do a second thread on things that people bring up which I think are not good arguments
Why is November Lockdown or more restrictions not like March in England?
The first, and most practical, is that hospitals will stay open for non-COVID procedures if at all possible + schools being open is the next highest priority (that's what I infer). Both of these are clearly about minimising the health and life impact aspects of more restrictions.
The second is that our situational awareness - how much of the virus transmitting, and where - and knowledge of the virus (incubation period, disease profile at least for acute disease) is in a completely different space - we really know stuff.
Just knowing where and how doesn't mean we can change things, but it is a good thing. It allow us to forecast and model with confidence; it allows us to understand where to focus.
The third thing is that worldwide clinical research - of which some of the best has happened in the UK in particular the excellent RECOVERY trial - means less people die who are infected. Both single big things (knowing which drugs work) and thousands of little things here.
Frustratingly our increased knowledge does mean we now have a fuzzy view of a nasty long term follow on disease ("Long COVID") which we still need to get into focus more as it will be important to understand.
The fourth big thing is that although the mixture of TTI and restrictions in October was not enough to prevent growth, it *did* slow growth alot from the R ~2.5 to 3 in March vs 1.5-1.2 in October. We're not that far away from reasonable control of the virus transmission.
This deserves the Dickensian quote again: "Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery". Much the same with growth vs shrinkage here.
One "card in our favour" is that at lower incidence levels some aspects of TTI - in particular Trace - just work better (or should work better - it is super complex to operationalise this stuff). This means lower incidence gives us a chance to have less restrictions and control.
The fifth big thing is that we have real confidence that there will many vaccine trials reporting end of this year / beginning of next, and if one or more is successful, this will likely change many aspects of the epidemic.
Vaccines are best not thought of as a fairy tale ending to this pandemic, but they are potent tools when they work (how potent we wont know until the Phase III trials are in). Past the early vaccine results there is the Spring and less favourable weather for the virus.
So - although this is not a nice place to be, the horizon is definitely better looking forward. And although the weather in England is always pretty foul I hope this lockdown is far sharper, shorter and easier than March (fingers crossed!)

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Niger state shares borders with Zamfara, kebbi, Kaduna & Benin Republic. Terrorists from Niger republic and Burkina faso easily move money and arms across the borders of Kebbi, Zamfara and Benin R into Niger state. According to UN over 900,000 people have been displaced in B'Faso https://t.co/65YEMJhqDp


Niger, Mali and Burkina faso are weak countries populated by Shell terrorists who have now found a safe haven in the forests in Kaduna and Niger state. Birin Gwari, Mokwa forest, Nanati forests, Kanji lake areas.

No decent human resides permanently in forests.

We are facing both external and internal threats from these weak and failed countries we are surrounded with. As a senator you know that a FG police system with less than 300k officers can't actively police the landmass and borders in the North.
Form your state police now!

You and other senators should scrap the FG police system and devote the unaudited security votes and constituency allowance to policing your corridors and forests. Let the airforce bomb them and put your rangers in the forests. Issue an ultimatum for those in the forests to leave

You are all living in a dream if you think the current police structure will become efficient overnight.
Budget, Personnel, Technology, Equipment, Surveillance..It's impossible.
Form your state and community police and flush out the terrorists.
I'll bite, Mr. Gray. We can even play by your rather finicky rules.

Let's begin with some of the things you have said about Xinjiang, notably absent from your more recent media appearances, but still present in your blog about your 2014 biking trip.


The following is taken from an ongoing list I keep of people who have been to Xinjiang and written/spoken about their experiences. It is separate from the testimony of detainees and their relatives I also keep. Jerry is on this

Jerry, your article for CGTN, as well as your various Medium pieces, belabor themselves to emphasize the smoothness of your time in Xinjiang. Why did you leave out so many details from your log of your 2014 trip? They seem relevant.

For example, would CGTN not let you speak about Shanshan, the town that evidently disturbed you so much?


Why, pray tell, after noting how kind and hospitable Xinjiang police were to you in 2019 for CGTN—and how you were never told where you could or could not go—would you omit these details?
🧵 ⚡️ #Navalny, in handcuffs, expects his second verdict in one day NOW, about to be ready any minute now. He’s joking about cucumbers he pickles in his cell. I will translate his SECOND last address in one day but here is the previous trial coverage


Extracts from #Navalny last address #2 today: “Putin’s party is akin a swine devouring oil and gas dollars from a trough, & when poked & reminded that $ are for everyone, growls, “What about the WWII? What about veterans?!” The verdict is due any minute now. #FreeNavalny 👇🏼☝🏼

The judge is back and reads the verdict now.

“The politician criticized the participants in the [RT] video in support of the amendments to the Constitution, calling the presenters "corrupt lackeys", "traitors" and "people without conscience."

The judge says Navalny pleaded not guilty and called the persecution politicized.

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