BC VALUATION

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue 5 years, 4 months ago 1261 views

When a stock is trading around 15-20x sales - ask why would an accident not happen? What could be the valuations damage in that case?

More from Sajal Kapoor

Still waiting for those ~5 to go bankrupt. Future is unpredictable. We only need a few 100x over 15Y.

Tail-events generate the biggest panic and upside. If you survive the panic w/o jumping off the train, you deserve the 100x in few stocks.

Temperament + Business Analysis = ⤴️

@unseenvalue Hats off Sir. I compared an equal weighted portfolio of your stocks above to the 2 Coffee Can stocks Abbott & Divis and your portfolio has delivered significant upside since then
Key has to be conviction and equal weighting pic.twitter.com/6dJ1LDMSYr
— ML4TradingDoctor (@DrKRIndia) May 16, 2021

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

"The global natural cosmetics market is expected to be worth $48.04 billion by 2025..... #Biotechnology could be the game-changer for natural beauty lovers – and, more crucially, Planet Earth."

https://t.co/PEvcSXrrW1

#Fermentation | Industry 5.0 Vision 2 🧬

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

From failing to qualify for a major world event to winning a major world event. Unseen transformation in just 3Y 🇮🇹 ⚽️

From an unseen retail owned micro/small cap to institutional darling large cap. Magical transformation unfolding in just 3Y from late 2019 to late 2022 🇮🇳 ⭕️

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

@connectgurmeet Real estate - unseen exposure

Playing real estate and home improvement structural story in \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3 via a focused proxy consumption \U0001f9fa

1. Asian Paints
2. Pidilite
3. SHIL (Hindware portfolio)
4. Fragrance SpecChem (Kelkar & Fairchem)

Consumption | Proxy Consumption
— Conviction | Patience (@unseenvalue) January 10, 2020

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@Jeevan_rjv @soicfinance @itsTarH No. Not those ones. Editas, Intellia etc are more on the CRISPR patents and royalty play.

More from Valuation

Dinesh Sairam
@Dinesh_Sairam

@Gautam__Baid He laid down very similar principles a decade ago in his 1976 letter (Source: https://t.co/6Z5v0qEaIg)

What's amazing is how consistent he's been in following his philosophy even after nearly 5

John Mihaljevic
@JMihaljevic

Grateful to @AswathDamodaran for sharing his wisdom in this remarkable conversation with @veiled_value about the book, The Dark Side of Valuation.

Excerpts follow in this thread.
Members, access the full interview

On every investor's worst enemy:

On uncertainty:

On multiples vs. DCF:

On stories and valuation:

Net-Nets Baby!
@five_reds

@hindsightcapllp @mjmauboussin It still has some life, but will go extinct on the day you see "Adjusted Book Value" in Qtrly Con Calls :)

SKJ
@skj_102

If the Adani stocks trading at more than 50x sales are able to sustain for next 3 years, we will enter a new era of valuation.

And we have never entered in the new era of valuation before.

There was only one since the beginning.

If you know, you know.

Arjun Badola
@badola_arjun

A thread: How to value? 🏦💰❓

Sharing my learnings from my journey so far.

Initially when I started out I used to ignore what anybody would have to say about their style of valuing a business and I would blindly copy what Benjamin Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor had to say.

Later came a stage where I realized Benjamin style was not working.

Before we get into the learning, here is the background to it:

If you have been following me for the past 1 year you would have noticed how my valuation method has changed.

I used to struggle a lot with valuation and it would be at the back of my mind the whole day thinking what are these investors doing to value. I tried DCF but that didn’t work for me. (Don’t hate me for that, its my personal choice)

I used to attend Bloomberg Quint’s talk on Zoom, message investors, read books, etc. to figure out: How to value? (The frustration had got to a level that I took break from investing for 3-4 weeks)

One of the most successful stock trader with special focus on cash stocks and who has a very creative mind to look out for opportunities in dark times

Covering one of the most unique set ups: Extended moves & Reversal plays

Time for a 🧵 to learn the above from @iManasArora

What qualifies for an extended move?

30-40% move in just 5-6 days is one example of extended move

How Manas used this info to book

The stock exploded & went up as much as 63% from my price.

Closed my position entirely today!#BroTip pic.twitter.com/CRbQh3kvMM
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) June 22, 2020

Post that the plight of the

What an extended (away from averages) move looks like!!

If you don't learn to sell into strength, be ready to give away the majority of your gains.#GLENMARK pic.twitter.com/5DsRTUaGO2
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) June 24, 2020

Example 2: Booking profits when the stock is extended from 10WMA

10WMA =

#HIKAL

Closed remaining at 560
Reason: It is 40+% from 10wma. Super extended

Total revenue: 11R * 0.25 (size) = 2.75% on portfolio

Trade closed pic.twitter.com/YDDvhz8swT
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) July 2, 2021

Another hack to identify extended move in a stock:

Too many green days!

Read

When you see 15 green weeks in a row, that's the end of the move. *Extended*

Simple price action analysis.#Seamecltd https://t.co/gR9xzgeb9K
— Manas Arora (@iManasArora) August 26, 2019

Daddy Files
@DaddyFiles

This is my son, Sam. He’s 5. And today he learned how shitty and harmful #ToxicMasculinity is. My rage meter is spiking right now so excuse me if this is a little raw but there are some things I want to say about BS #gender norms (a thread)

Sam is my middle child & he’s a terror. A “boy’s boy” as so many (not me) would say. He’s rough and tumble, he’s loud, he’s always dirty, loves trucks, plays sports and knee drops me from the couch. But he also loves a lot of “girl” things.

Sam has a collection of purses because he likes to carry things around. And he also loves to have his nails painted bright colors because he thinks they “look beautiful.” And he’s right – they are beautiful…

So he proudly wore his red nail polish to kindergarten this morning because Sam has absolutely no concept of nail polish only being for girls or reason to think anyone would possibly have a problem with beautiful nails.

But his classmates did have a problem. A big one. Sam was ridiculed for being a boy with nail polish. They called him names and told him to take it off. This lasted the entire day.

$(\u3063\u25d4\u25e1\u25d4)\u3063 \U0001f499 \U0001d440\U0001d4b6rymo Belfast \U0001f499\U0001f331\U0001f340 \u24cb\U0001f397\ufe0f$

(っ◔◡◔)っ 💙 𝑀𝒶rymo Belfa...
@MarymoBelfast

THREAD PART 1.

On Sunday 21st June, 14 year old Noah Donohoe left his home to meet his friends at Cave Hill Belfast to study for school. #RememberMyNoah💙

He was on his black Apollo mountain bike, fully dressed, wearing a helmet and carrying a backpack containing his laptop and 2 books with his name on them. He also had his mobile phone with him.

On the 27th of June. Noah's naked body was sadly discovered 950m inside a storm drain, between access points. This storm drain was accessible through an area completely unfamiliar to him, behind houses at Northwood Road. https://t.co/bpz3Rmc0wq

"Noah's body was found by specially trained police officers between two drain access points within a section of the tunnel running under the Translink access road," said Mr McCrisken."

Noah's bike was also found near a house, behind a car, in the same area. It had been there for more than 24 hours before a member of public who lived in the street said she read reports of a missing child and checked the bike and phoned the police.

$Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3$