BC USD
Saved by @SAnngeri

1/
🧵on dominant USD💵

USD has been on upward swing since mid 2021 and has jumped sharply more recently

❓What is $ Index?
❓USD💵role in global economy? <- reserve currency
❓Why it is so 'strong' right now?
❓What drive it?
❓Will it collapse?

 2/

What is $ Index?

The US Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally, the "Dixie") is a measure of the value of USD💵relative to a basket of foreign currencies often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.
3/

🌟The elimination of the gold standard fostered the birth of DXY

🌟DXY was originally developed by US Fed in 1973 to provide an external bilateral trade-weighted avg value of the USD against global currencies

🌟DXY reached its high point in 1985 and its low point in 2008
4/

The following six currencies are used to calculate the index. It is a weighted basket

1⃣Euro (EUR) 57.6%
2⃣Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6%
3⃣Pound sterling (GBP) 11.9%
4⃣Canadian dollar (CAD) 9.1%
5⃣Swedish krona (SEK) 4.2%
6⃣Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6%
5/

What is a Reserve Currency?

⭐️has depth and liquidity to allow reliable & efficient international transactions
⭐️freely and easily exchanged for other currencies
⭐️held by many monetary institutions in significant amounts
⭐️A large % of commodities are priced in it
6/

In 1973 President Nixon's brought an end to the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. It also decoupled the U.S. dollar from the value of gold.
7/

Why the US Dollar is the Reserve Currency?

It’s currently fashionable to espouse the inevitable end of the💵 as reserve currency. Here are some facts in a🧵I wrote

https://t.co/a43XqjBxix

~90% of foreign currency trading involves the dollar on one side of the transaction
8/

Despite trillions of $$ in debt and large deficit spending, the US still holds global trust and confidence in its ability to pay its obligations. For this reason💵will continue to be the top global currency in the years to come

This makes USD exchange rate very important
9/

What are the threats to replacing💵as a reserve currency?

🇨🇳China➡️opening up and allowing the free flow of capital with less government intervention (unlikely)

🇪🇺 EU➡️getting their shit together (unlikely)

Crypto➡️restoring trust in the system (unlikely in the short term)
10/

Underlying supply and demand mechanics drive💵strength. Over simplified key factors:

1⃣The role of bonds
2⃣Economic outlook
3⃣Inflation
4⃣Central bank policy
5⃣Political stability
6⃣Trade balances

Price equilibrium is set where demand and supply meet
11/

1⃣The role of bonds

⭐️US govt issues bonds to raise capital that is then purchased by foreign investors
⭐️'safehaven' <- US has never defaulted on this debt
⭐️foreign investors to sell their currency to buy dollars to purchase bonds
12/

2⃣Economic outlook

When a country’s economy is booming, so are investments in that county. More $ in = higher demand for local currency = stronger currency.

Ex: India (IT and manufacturing) and Taiwan (Semiconductor)
13/

3⃣Inflation

A country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies.

This works in lockstep with central bank policy, which has controlling inflation as part of its mandate.
14/

4⃣Central bank policy

Central banks play an instrumental role in exchange rates due to the interest rate they set. If the interest rate in one country is relatively more attractive than in another, there will be foreign investment inflow into that country.
15/

5⃣Political stability

A collapse in political stability will lead to contagion as confidence is lost in the system.

Srilanka
https://t.co/X2WXgXOqjA

China
https://t.co/Q8XmES2dZW

The US track record for political stability leads it to be viewed as a “safe haven”
16/

6⃣Trade balances

When the US exports products or services it creates demand for dollars because customers need to pay for this in the local currency, USD. They will therefore have to sell their own currency to buy USD, which is favorable for the demand for the dollar.
17/

Why is💵so strong right now?

1⃣Fed ended its expansive monetary policy (QT)
2⃣Fed also raised interest rates
3⃣ECB still slow to raise rates

The💵automatically strengthens when the💶weakens - this is because the euro makes up 57.6% of the value of the DXY.
18/

Recent Run-Up in DXY➡️ Supply/Demand factors

It is all relative. The top two constituents of the DXY, Japan and Europe.

1EUR < 1USD

First time since 2002, we now have parity in the EUR and the USD.

Fed has been hawkish to contain inflation while ECB is still hesitant
19/

The dollar is surging: Who wins and who loses?

I wrote a 🧵some time back on this

https://t.co/3JnG06U5VF

The main driver of the recent DXY strength is the central bank monetary policy gap.

The Fed is starting to ramp rates up while the ECB and BoJ are still too hesitant
20/

Why the💵wont collapse (different than decline)?

1⃣backed by the U.S. government
2⃣universal medium of exchange
3⃣most international contracts are priced in $$
4⃣US is the largest export market for many countries and these countries have pegged their own currency to the💵
21/

💵Impact on Earnings Season

Lot of companies report in💵but are widespread across all geographies. Currencies affect the bottom lines of companies when exposures are not hedged back to the home currency.

IBM https://t.co/x0IfcbPINs

$MSFT https://t.co/BerCtUjItX
23/

What Is the Petrodollar?

🌟A petrodollar is a💵 paid to an oil-exporting country that cannot be spent on imports for that country.
🌟The 1945 U.S.-Saudi agreement created the petrodollar.
🌟The purchasing power of a petrodollar relies on the value of the U.S. dollar.
24/

Wrap-up ....

In the current state of the💵, monetary policy differentials between the Fed and other central banks and a 'flight to safety' amidst global recessionary fears explain most of the USD appreciation in this recent run.
25/

However, I think the tide is about to change.

If the market is widely expecting a US recession and moderating inflation figures over the next year - these two developments should tighten policy spreads.
Source

💡https://t.co/UGQaiDoGQ9

💡https://t.co/HrQMCAkDTX

💡 https://t.co/5q6Wvb7dL9

💡https://t.co/kBXloUlh5a

💡https://t.co/6NGM6K2dlN

💡https://t.co/JZ5An7XVPg
appreciate your feedback

@AI_Feb21 @caswapnilkabra @suru27 @SahilKapoor
@BahirwaniKrish @StocktwitsIndia @IronyMeter
@saketvaani @ajaydhakaajay @Vineet_invstor @aditya_kondawar @saketreddy @academy_share
@borrowed_ideas @connectgurmeet @IndraprasthaInv
@Finstor85
@anishteli @AnishA_Moonka @mishika_chamria @Vipinguptaca @cautkarshpandey @Delhi_Investors @Sheetal9925 @abhymurarka

You May Also Like

Pat Walls
Pat Walls
@thepatwalls
And here they are...

THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE

Remember, this money is just fun. If you launched a product (or even attempted a launch) - you did something worth MUCH more than $1,000.

#24hrstartup

The winners 👇

#10

Lattes For Change - Skip a latte and save a life.

https://t.co/M75RAirZzs

@frantzfries built a platform where you can see how skipping your morning latte could do for the world.

A great product for a great cause.

Congrats Chris on winning $250!


#9

Instaland - Create amazing landing pages for your followers.

https://t.co/5KkveJTAsy

A team project! @bpmct and @BaileyPumfleet built a tool for social media influencers to create simple "swipe up" landing pages for followers.

Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!


#8

SayHenlo - Chat without distractions

https://t.co/og0B7gmkW6

Built by @DaltonEdwards, it's a platform for combatting conversation overload. This product was also coded exclusively from an iPad 😲

Dalton is a beast. I'm so excited he placed in the top 10.


#7

CoderStory - Learn to code from developers across the globe!

https://t.co/86Ay6nF4AY

Built by @jesswallaceuk, the project is focused on highlighting the experience of developers and people learning to code.

I wish this existed when I learned to code! Congrats on $250!!
MAKERS
Janmajit Sinha
Janmajit Sinha
@Impregnable007
#Thread - 1/21

A story of a brave woman who let her "breast" cut to protect the life of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose!

Neera Arya was born on March 5 1902 in Khekra Nagar, Uttar Pradesh in a distinguished & eminent businessman Seth Chhajumal's family. Since her childhood,


2/21
She was a true nationalist & always had a vision of becoming a part of the freedom fighter movement. She was also reportedly accused as an undercover by the British Govt.

That was the time when her father's business was flourishing in Calcutta, though his business was..

3/21
spread across the country but Calcutta was the center of his business and that was one of the reasons why her education was done in Calcutta. During that period of time, she had learned quite a few languages along with Bengali, Hindi, English.

4/21
Her father got her married to a CID Inspector "Shrikant Jairanjan Das" in British India but they were two different individuals, Neera Arya was a true nationalist but her husband was a true British servant. She was highly motivated & she had an urge of getting us freedom..

5/21
so she ended up joining the Jhansi Regiment in Azad Hind Fauz after the marriage. It was the regiment that the British always accused them of spying on British Govt.

It was the time when Neera's husband Jairanjan Das was given the responsibility to spy on Netaji Subhash..
CULTURE
Advertisement
Brian Cates
Brian Cates
@drawandstrike
Trump is gonna let the Mueller investigation end all on it's own. It's obvious. All the hysteria of the past 2 weeks about his supposed impending firing of Mueller was a distraction. He was never going to fire Mueller and he's not going to


Mueller's officially end his investigation all on his own and he's gonna say he found no evidence of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election.

Democrats & DNC Media are going to LITERALLY have nothing coherent to say in response to that.

Mueller's team was 100% partisan.

That's why it's brilliant. NOBODY will be able to claim this team of partisan Democrats didn't go the EXTRA 20 MILES looking for ANY evidence they could find of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election

They looked high.

They looked low.

They looked underneath every rock, behind every tree, into every bush.

And they found...NOTHING.

Those saying Mueller will file obstruction charges against Trump: laughable.

What documents did Trump tell the Mueller team it couldn't have? What witnesses were withheld and never interviewed?

THERE WEREN'T ANY.

Mueller got full 100% cooperation as the record will show.
POLITICS
\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e\u093e\u0932\u0940 \u0939\u093f\u0924\u0947\u0936 \u0905\u0935\u0938\u094d\u0925\u0940
श्रीमाली हितेश अवस्थी...
@HiteshAwasthi89
#Thread
Benefits of writing SRI RAMA Jayam!!!

Writing Sri Rama Jayam is known as Likitha Japam- Writing Meditation. This gives one a complete sense of surrender to an inner conscience and peace while writing or chanting the mantras.

#Sri_Rama_Jayam #RamaNavami

Cont 👇

You can write this in any language of your choice. It is the connecting chords with the divine and your inner self.

Below are some points that we came across on the benefits :

Cont 👇

1. Vedas tell that as the sun dispels the darkness, the chanting of Rama Nama dispels all evil and obstacles of life. It is a way of liberation and salvation of human suffering.

2. When you think, that all roads are blocked to walk away from day to day problems..

Cont 👇

writing ‘Sri Ram Ram Ram’ gives you the most needed clarity of thoughts to find away out of odd situations.

3. It was told that a calmness engulfs as one indulges in writing the Sri Rama Jayam bringing in more clarity of mind, tolerance & strength to withstand obstacles in life.

4. Devotion of service of life and its varied forms is devotion to God. So there is no right or wrong way of writing this. The very thought and process to write is a connection with god and finds a inner meaning.

Cont 👇
ALL
\uff2c\uff41\uff44\uff59 \uff22\uff4c\uff41\uff5a\uff45\uff53
Ｌａｄｙ Ｂｌａｚｅｓ...
@Lady_Blazes
Oh my Goodness!!!

I might have a panic attack due to excitement!!

Read this thread to the end...I just had an epiphany and my mind is blown. Actually, more than blown. More like OBLITERATED! This is the thing! This is the thing that will blow the entire thing out of the water!


Has this man been concealing his true identity?

Is this man a supposed 'dead' Seal Team Six soldier?

Witness protection to be kept safe until the right moment when all will be revealed?!

Who ELSE is alive that may have faked their death/gone into witness protection?


Were "golden tickets" inside the envelopes??


Are these "golden tickets" going to lead to their ultimate undoing?

Review crumbs on the board re: 'gold'.


#SEALTeam6 Trump re-tweeted this.
GOVERNMENT