15 January 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

The Burden Of Command, Or If I Were Trump Right Now

I'll get a few more hours sleep after posting this early morning's thread. It's just after 3:30 AM, EST. The dream for America that I dreamed awakened me, and so here I am.

🧵EMA + VWAP STRATEGY

Every trader has a go-to strategy that works best for them. My trading is all about keeping it simple stupid and revolves around two indicators - Exponential moving averages and vwap.

Here's the strategy that I utilize on nearly 80% of my trades.

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What are Exponential Moving Averages?

EMA's are a type of moving average that places a greater weight on more recent data points.

8EMA = Exponential Moving Averages of the last 8 candle closing prices.

EMA's adjust with respect to chart time frame.

What is VWAP?

Volume Weighted Average Price - A key intraday indicator in my trading that offers the true average price based on price & volume.

Calculation: (Price x # of shares traded) / total shares traded

EMA's I use

- 8
- 21
- 50

While I do utilize the 50EMA, the 8 & 21 EMA are most important for this strategy. Some people use the 9 and 20 which are essentially the same thing. REMEMBER: EMA'S adjust with respect to time frames.

A+ Set Up Criteria - (What I look for)

The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

- Have a lot of emails in the waiting list
- Become #1 on PH
- Become #1 of HN or Reddit
- Have people that saing "I'll pay"
- Have a lot of free users

The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
100+: This has a potential.
50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
0+: People don't need it.

This is for a single time payment product. For a subscription probably it should be less because people hate subscription.

And obviously, you should have a lot of traffic like 3-5k+.

Here is a stat for my products (macOS apps) for the first 24h after the launch:

In 1937, a trucker got frustrated waiting for his cargo to be unloaded. He later sold his company for $1.1 billion.

Here’s the story of how Malcom McLean made a billion dollars and which startup could be following in his footsteps. (Inspired by our episode with @laurabehrenswu)

In the early 1950s, the shipping industry was a dying business.

New York’s docks were handling half as much domestic cargo in the early 1950s as they had been in the depressed 1930s.

In thirty years, no one had invested significant money in coastal shipping.

Why?

As McLean found out, loading ships was difficult and slow.

A truck or train would deliver items to the port. Each item was unloaded separately, recorded, and carried to storage.

When a ship was ready, each item was taken from storage, counted again, and hauled on-board.

The cost of this labor was significant. As one expert at the time explained:

“A four-thousand-mile voyage for a shipment might consume 50 percent of its costs in covering just the two ten-mile movements through two ports.”

Yet, despite the industry’s issues, it felt little pressure to change.

Foreigners were barred from operating domestically. Cartels ran international routes. And gov. subsidies eased the pain of labor costs.

Reshaping the industry needed an outsider.

Enter Malcolm McLean.

List of companies with more than 50% Market Share:

1) Maruti Suzuki (passenger cars)
2) APL Apollo (structural & pre galvanized tubes)
3) CDSL (investors accounts)
4) Interglobe Aviation (air traffic passengers)
5) GMM Pfaudler (glass lined equipment)

6) Asian Paints (decorative paints)
7) Colgate (oral care)
8) Symphony (coolers)
9) PGHH (female care & vaporub)
10) La Opala Rg (opalware)
11) HLE Glasscoat (filtration & drying equipment)
12) Delta Corp (online poker games)
13) Bajaj Auto (3W segment)
14) Vinati Organics (IBB)

15) OCCL (insoluble sulphur)
16) LMW (textile machinery)
17) Bajaj Consumer (almond hair oil)
18) Indiamart Intermesh (online B2B Classified space)
19) Vst Tillers (power tillers)
20) Sanghvi Movers (overall domestic crane hiring market)
21) Emami (antiseptic & male grooming)

List of companies with more than 60% Market Share:

1) Concor (domestic container cargo transport)
2) Exide (lead batteries)
3) Naukri (Indian job market space)
4) Praj (ethanol plant installing)
5) ACE (mobile & tower cranes)
6) Pidilite (adhesives)
7) Jamna Auto (leaf spring)

8) CAMS (RTA within mutual fund industry)
9) Time Technoplast (polymer based industrial packaging)