Third Thread: The Conspiracy Theory Voters

Aka let's try to do SPD again, Sarah Palin's Disease. Sorry, my 2nd Thread was longer than I expected with Newt.

So now let's do Sarah Palin properly, in her own thread.

While George Wallace is the grandfather to Trump's run in 2016 (starting in 2015), there are not enough racist voters to win the election. Not even enough racists to win the NOMINATION of the GOP.

Trump needed to expand his support in 2015 & 2016. He needed INSANE voters.
The real prototype candidate to Donald Trump is Sarah Palin - a candidate so bad, she COST John McCain millions of votes in 2008 against Obama. Yes, exit polls are clear, for every 2 votes Sarah brought in to McCain she brought 3 votes to Obama. Net cost to McCain several MILLION
Sarah Palin was the Fake News candidate, who bravely battled reality and 'Lame Stream Media' for the past 12 years since her loss in 2008. She had a lunatic base of voters who believe in the conspiracy theories she spews. As Sarah Palin wasn't running, those voter went to Trump
We need to discuss the Tea Party. Back in the 2008 cycle, the progressives had a spontaneous movement in the economic criss to 'Occupy Wall Street'.

VERY EARLY in that movement, a 'sister' movement started as the Tea Party, against big government
Very early Tea Party had some synergies with Occupy Wall Street. But the progressives of OWS were unwilling to take corporate sponsorships and run a political platform and agenda. Meanwhile some opportunists captured the Tea Party movement AND SOLD IT to right wing supporters
The Tea Party 'patriots' are in every way an abomination of the original Boston Tea Party that launched the American Revolution against British rule and led to the USA Independence.

But by 2008, Sarah Palin had emerged as the poster girl for the Tea Party nutters
There were a few early principled Tea Partiers. But the movement evolved into the 'Freedom Caucus' of the modern GOP in Congress epitomized by Ted Cruz, Matt Gaetz, Gym Jordan etc. Absolutely batshit crazy conspiracy nutters and EXTREMIST right wing fanatics
This comes back to Gerrymandering. If a political party gets to draw Congressional districts so, that their party is guaranteed seats - guaranteed seats will no longer behave 'sensibly' in a political world.

Their candidates are PUNISHED for compromise, REWARDED for fanaticism
Sarah Palin's Disease aka SDP - is incurable. Once you are infected by SPD, if you hold a gerrymandered seat - or seat in a red state - your ONLY fear is to be PRIMARIED - by someone more madly maga than you.

THIS IS A CANCER

IT IS INCURABLE

IT has killed the GOP as we know it
Under NORMAL elections, this catastrophic electoral suicide strategy would have been obvious to the GOP back in 2008 or latest 2010-2012.

Because of Gerrymandering and Electoral College, and the freak 2016 Trump electioni cycle - GOP did not properly diagnose what is wrong
The GOP's pain today will be FAR WORSE to rid the party of SPD (=Sarah Palin's Disease = Maganutters) than it would have been back in 2016.

The GOP has lost the House, lost the White House and lost the Senate - even WITH the 'cheating' like gerrymandering, voter suppression..
The GOP has to consider WHICH WAY to fix itself. Those who are maganutters will not WILLINGLY abadnon their seats. They will pledge their undying support to the maga god. This hurts ALL Republicans in 2022, 2024 cycles. And they were the smaller party to begin with

More from Tomi Ahonen, Croupier at Pardon Roulette

More from Trump

Having a Twitter account is not a right.

If you incite violence on Twitter, the company can - and should - stop you. Good call.


Plans for “future armed protests” are spreading on Twitter and elsewhere, the company warned, “including a proposed secondary attack on the US Capitol and state capitol buildings on January 17, 2021”.

Yes, people who boosted their careers off of Trump - his sycophants, his kids & people like Haley, who helped him attack and undermine human rights around the world - are boo-hooing right now.

Always beware of powerful people pretending to be victims.

https://t.co/0A5D5eJFvL


But no one should react with glee. The president of the United States has been inciting violence, and Republican Party leaders, along with a willing, violent mob, have been aiding his attempts to overthrow the democratic process.

That's the real story here.

The dangers are real, and we've all seen them. That Twitter even had to contemplate banning any politician for inciting violence is awful. That they had to ban the sitting president for it is even worse.

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.