Am I glad Trump was impeached again? Not really. I am glad people are catching up with politics - there has been a lot of learning going on - but the future presents some difficulties, and lots of people lack post impeachment, post sedition experience.

[Thread] /2

I see columnists writing with a prophetic eye, tackling the question "What's next?", but they really don't understand what has happened so far. The denials that were registered at the podium by Republicans were BRUTALLY ignorant and irrational.
/3 How do you foresee the future when you deny the past and obscure the present?

Republicans still support Trump. How is that possible?
/4 It is possible only because Republicans have been casting Democrats for years as something less than human. To them, we are all Socialists, Communists, unfair judges, idealistic, and disingenuous. If they let loose of the coattails of Trump, they lose their lifeline.
/5 But it isn't that simple. Republicans embrace their ideology. You don't become a Republican by demonstrating free-thinking independence. You pass the vetting by showing loyalty and your willingness to stand with others rather than stand for others.
/6 For them, if they aren't loyal, they lose everything. They are dependent on their MEMBERSHIP. That is where their power comes from. Some Republicans can stand alone, McCain, Romney, without losing their identity. But
/7 the less experienced are too vulnerable to take even a single step from the protection of the pack.

And now, like pup wolves, they bay for the resignation of Liz Cheney. These aren't leaders of a nation of independent thinkers. They are cowards, hiding in the herd.
/8 The greatest fear for a Republican is that they will be mistook as a Democrat and subjected to the shaming that they, and their colleagues, level at Democrats every day.

More from Trump

This is mostly right but strikes me as it needing said that I don't think the left or the intelligentsia have the slightest idea how low institutional trust in anything coming from a left mouthpiece is now. Except in-network, the best heuristic is "the opposite of what they said"


If you look at the situation from a predictive models perspective instead of the more rigorous and appropriate (under normal circumstances) "prove your case or gtfo" perspective, trusting the opposite of whatever the left side says has an AMAZING track record, as we know it.

Literally, the best heuristic most people have right now, in terms of how often it gets things right versus *completely* wrong, is "whatever CNN, the NYT, public health officials, and the Democrats said... yeah, the opposite." That is, they're wrong WAY outside of statistics.

They're also not just wrong. They're *completely* wrong, backwards, often transparently covering something up that they don't want known or refuse to believe. This isn't just a legitimation crisis because there's a heuristic: whatever the official left narrative is, is wrong.

There are a few reasons why such a heuristic would be more predictive than not. One of those is conspiracy, and another is mass hysteria with ideological capture. We know at least one of those is happening and have rather strong evidence both are. That makes conspiracy reasonable
Trump: Day 1,407 (THREAD)
-13,454,254 Cases of COVID-19 in US
-US CV-19 Death Toll Rises to 271,026
-Day 20 Since Biden Declared Winner
-Day 424 at a Trump-owned Property
-Touts Assassination of Iran Scientist
-Appointed Judge Rejects PA Lawsuit
-$3M Recount Increases Biden Lead


https://t.co/hOfTV6hRNx


https://t.co/KYBIm6Qohw


https://t.co/Bj5tluZ5dh


https://t.co/Q9YG4btKvH

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