BC TRUMP
Saved by @Alex1Powell

1. Ok, I'm liking @RepSeanMaloney

"I sure as hell didn't win 5 Xs as a gay guy in a Trump district"

Much more imp he just correctly pointed out that even liberal MSNBC gives the GOP a major assist by constantly talking about Defund the Police, socialism, & intraparty fighting

 2. and @JoeNBC is right, in my "modernized moderates" plan, you have to have these candidates go on offense. Its CRAZY that @SpanbergerVA07 is defending her record as a moderate when she's running against an ideologue in Nick Freitas.

If you ask the wrong questions & ask them
3. the wrong way, the evidence & data will screw you. Such as it did in 2020 because there is no reality in which Dem congressional/senate candidates were well-served by pulling out all their registration and in-person voter contact while the GOP was doing it. It was a bold
4. decision that someone, looking at the weak or inconsistent findings of research on effects of GOTV and esp the diff between in-person and "remote" forms and decided "you know, there is likely no diff from in-person and remote & in fact, remote you can contact WAY more people."
5. And the fact is, maybe this is right. Maybe the Ds total bomb on the congressional map has nothing to do with the decision to suspend the field programs of the House & Senate campaigns. Maybe. I'll be interested in the analysis when the voter file is updated I'll be looking at
6. turnout differentials between Rs & Ds and between campaigns that ran in-person field and didn't (and campaigns that put that field up last minute after myself & other upon finding out about it, totally freaked out). Again, the Biden campaign is in this bucket- only reinstating
7. in-person field once stories of troubles in FL began to leak out. BUT again, something I've highlighted elsewhere, they had grassroots groups doing in-person field on their behalf, something that wasn't happening, generally, for these congressional candidates bc the grassroots
8. tend to focus on the prez in this cycle (although some do the full ticket). Again, could be that the lack of in-person GOTV appears to have no effect in my controlled analysis. But, something weird happened. Its possible that every single forecasting model & qualitative race
9. handicapper was wrong for 2020 & that our estimation that Ds, under these fundamentals and the assumption that Ds would unseat a one term incumbent pres (which is HARD) would also likely improve on their margins in the House was simply wrong. That for some reason, the things
10. that my far better established (& frankly, better at the race handicapping thing) at @Center4Politics @kkondik suddenly misread House races even though the dude gets it right every other time. IDK. Seems weird though. It seems weird that the House elections did an unexpected
11. thing, that this MAJOR electioneering change was made to the side which experienced this major unexpected loss. Keeping in mind, in the normal course of things, suspending in-person field would NEVER happen bc it would be deemed politically suicidal not to run any in-person
12. field, even IF the experimental results on it are often inconclusive. So, point is, the Ds have these data shops & lord knows I like data but you want to be careful about data bc as Cohn's analysis that argues that Black voters "let Ds down" (his argument, not mine) data is
13. always vulnerable to the person loading it for the analysis and the frame set for analyzing it.

Maloney imploring to MOJO to think about the effects coverage on MSNBC has on assisting the GOP's efforts on setting the narrative & terms of the debate was GREAT & if I ever got
14. to have dinner or coffee w those guys, it was on the list of things I wanted to talk about bc the GOP feeds that shit over to MSNBC intentionally- they understand exactly how our media works (as does Trump) and use it strategically against us.

More from Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer 📈🔭🍌

Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. When I hear @clairecmc talk about Dems learning to talk to the Piggly Wiggly crowd, I hope she'll want to join/help w my moderate messaging electioneering overall for Ds effort. BC its CRUCIAL to understand- Ds & outside groups tried already to cater to these voters on the

2. persuasion. That in fact, this cycle was the product of a very concerted effort of that strategy driven by high profile data firms on the D side (many of which who've been critical of my work) & it was a complete and total failure for 2 reasons. The main 1 is that it wants

3. to ignore the effect that polarization is having on voter behavior & the limitations that is placing on certain electioneering techniques that USED TO BE EFFECTIVE and are now not. I want to make something really clear- it is only in places where at least 1 element of the D's

4. operation "went rogue" that Biden pulled out wins: GA, where Abrams made electioneering about turning out the new coalition, AZ, where the AZ state party did the same, but with Latino voters, MI & WI where the state parties put into effect base-centric voter turnout strategies

5. at odds w the party's conventional playbook to focus on turnout, and/or places where concentrations of the D's new coalition: college-educated whites + minority voters (and young voters) are so high (like NE 2) that sub-par strategy doesn't matter, turnout surges are naturally
POLITICS
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. SO MUCH more than that. What Barr & the GOP pulled off w the release of the Mueller Report was demonstrated mastery of the American media & the news cycle.

They manipulated both brilliantly.

The reason reporters are conditioned to report a stalled bill as "Congress failing


2. to pass a covid relief bill"- the norm of objectivity- has allowed the RNC/GOP/Trump to develop a system to manipulate the media into doing their dirty work. But never have we seen it orchestrated so deliberately & cleanly as it was to neutralize the Mueller Report. By his

3. "Letter to Congress" where he intentional mispresented the findings of the report on 2 crucial areas- the investigation's conclusions regarding the activities of the Trump campaign and Russia and whether or not the President's actions to damage/disrupt the investigation

4. constitutes obstruction of justice, Barr & the GOP team understood that if the report was released, the media would likely get out on its own this meaning: Trump campaign's contacts with Russia did not rise to criminal charges and that Trump can not be charges w obstruction

5. while being president. BUT, by sending out this letter that interprets the report for the media in advance (well in advance!) of the actual report- Barr can instead tell the media a different narrative, far more favorable to Trump. These, of course, go on to become the
MEDIA
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Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. We've got @dananessel, killin' like usual on messaging w @HallieJackson on @MSNBC stating, objectively (accurately) that if SCOTUS were to grant the relief sought by TX & these other states & invalidate the votes of millions of Americans due to COMPLETELY FABRICATED claims of

2. of fraud, it would be the end of democracy in America. PERIOD. It would serve, functionally, as the moment of SC's succession, Dec 20, 1860 & also as a function of anti-democratic, unpatriotic, and TREASONOUS behavior post a presidential election they simply didn't want to

3. accept and spend 4 years living under. So instead, they "invalidated" it by refusing to continue to be part of the U.S. Here, if the Court was to play along (and to be crystal clear, the ONLY constitutional, pro-America position here is a full and unequivocal rejection of this

4. suit and frankly, a "supreme" legal tongue lashing at the ideologues that now control the modern Republican Party and by controlling it, have now forced the United States of America into its first constitutional crisis since the fields of her were strewn with bodies and blood

5. as she ripped herself apart to rid herself of her original sin of slavery, and in that process lost 620,000 Americans which at that time was 2% of the country's population. That Trump & his good squad fabricated a story of trucks in the night sneaking in 100Ks worth of ballots
GOVERNMENT
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. Yes, as @danielsgoldman is talking about now on @MSNBC is playing a big part. Rep Senator reluctance to go after Trump is MUCH MORE now than mere political reluctance. And frankly Trump made these threats openly known. Yet, he had his "lists" for primaries. But there is much

2. more going on here, that I'll touch on in the article which will also include the survey results ( there is STILL TIME to get involved w the survey. It is on extremism in the GOP- focused on MTW, GA-14 but also GOP extremism broadly. Ultimately, I waited to field it until

3. after the impeachment trial bc the survey wasn't really meant to test that (trust me, the big org will cover it!) and bc I was afraid it would impact what we are trying to measure. So now its time to get this puppy in the field. UNLESS, y'all care to asses some of this stuff

4. Impeachment may or may not impact attitudes on MTG and tribalism. Lord knows it had so many elements of extremism that times in. In order to add anything I'd gave to raise more money. 10K is not enough- survey research, the kids you see in wapo and nyt and such are like 30K

5. Some quotes I get are even for 50k!!! For 10K, with me doing analysis, we'd get to ask 5 or 6 questions and the most critical demos. (If you are reading this and willing to add your won pro-bono work to mine PLEASE DM me. This isn't some silly horse race poll. The goal is to
TRUMP
Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c
Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer
1. IMP ANNOUNCEMENT

I want to let you know when I made the decision to launch @StrikePac & directly get into electioneering I realized I wasn't going to continue issuing "race ratings" & "forecasts" each cycle- OBV that's a conflict of interest!

The hostility & sexism of

2. that world, I have to be honest, makes it very easy to walk away- the misogyny in the top tier of the election analysis community outside of @Center4Politics folks who are awesome & also more accurate than anyone else is intolerable. I'll still analyze politics, political

3. events, issue commentary, write articles, run the pod, go on TV, and generally succeed in ways that drive those men nuts but no, I won't be putting out ratings or "forecasts" anymore. Now, lots of people are asking me "what's going to happen in 2022?" The Midterm Effect, the

4. the long standing pattern of the president's party losing seats in the Midterm happens virtually every single cycle. I believe there are 2 recent exceptions: post-9/11 in the 2022 midterms and 1998 post-Lewinski gate. What I'm trying to do in building @StrikePac is completely

5. redesign/overhaul/modernize & reshape the way that Dems currently approach electioneering. I want to build a new organization with the funds capable of coming into cycle's like VA's 2021 cycle and the 2022 midterm cycle and start to deploy these new methodologies into the
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More from Trump

Tomi Ahonen, Croupier at Pardon Roulette
Tomi Ahonen, Croupier ...
@tomiahonen
Thread 4: Donald Trump Did Not Invent Trumpism

It was Fox. Fox created a Maga Nation (without that name) and promised their maga god Messiah would come some day. In 2015 when Trump came down that escallator, FOX proclaimed Trump as their dude

Trump didn't even know the lyrics


Fox News was born after Reagan ended the Fairness Doctrine in TV news broadcasts.

Fox was set up from the start to be a PROPAGANDA channel. To give PARTIAL and BIASED news. Not the full picture. They brainwashed 1/3 of American electorate over 3 decades

#FixFox

Long before Trump decided to run, Fox had been building a voter base for an ultra-conservative (and racist) candidate. Who would 'defend America in a war against Christmas' and who would 'build a wall' to keep brown people away etc. A cult of white men who feared a changing world

Trump was FLIRTING with this, what we know recognize as the Maga cult (#Cult45). He started his courtship with the Birtherism lies about Obama being born in Kenya - & Trump the fake Billionaire supposedly sent investigators to search Obama's birth certificate - remember all that?

The racist and RELIGIOUS nutters of the Maga cult were not naturally drawn to Trump. Many hated and feared Trump or despised him. But Trump was 'taught the lyrics' of how to speak to the Maga cult. The person who taught Trump to speak Maga was Stephen Miller from late 2015
TRUMP , POLITICS
Pasquale "Pat" Scopelliti
Pasquale "Pat" Scopell...
@ThyConsigliori
24 January 20210 #MAGAanalysisisMini

"In the month leading up to the riot, Mr. Trump was devising his own plan: He and a Justice Department official plotted to oust the acting attorney general to try to advance baseless election claims, interviews showed...
TRUMP
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words.pen.ready.writer
words.pen.ready.writer
@ready_pen
1.) Here’s the transcript: Coincidence it is “18” screenshots to capture? I think not!💥🇺🇸💥🇺🇸💥 https://t.co/wrfqjjW6hw
TRUMP
Lesley Abravanel\U0001f198
Lesley Abravanel🆘...
@lesleyabravanel
.@benjaminwittes' tiny cannons were bigger than Trump's pitiful 21 gun salute. Meanwhile the (lack of) crowd at Andrews is completely the #TrumpCrimeFamily and assorted griters. Trump looks defeated and I've never seen Melania look so animated. #ByeFelicia #GTFO 🖕🖕🖕

THE...SPACE FORCE!


"Our vets are happy, our people are happy..the military is thrilled." (Spoiler: no, no they're not)
#GTFO

The job numbers have been absolutely incredible (Narrator: yes, they have. The lowest since the Depression). #GTFO

Remember us when you see these things happening. (Narrator: The Turd Reich administration has the blood of 400,000 dead Americans on its hands). #GTFO
TRUMP
The More You Know
The More You Know
@Nixit1Wills
First off; “We The People” need those who have sworn an oath to protect Us and the constitution to read this article...NOW, not tomorrow! We are at war for this country! @USMarshalsHQ @USMC @usairforce @USArmy @SpaceForceDoD

We know so much more than this. Since 2015, Donald J Trump running for Office of the President has thrown a wrench in the plans that very bad traitors had for us. For decades, elected officials have infiltrated ideological people into ALL aspects of OUR agencies to do their

bidding! The cia, nsc, doj, fbi, cdc, nsa, just to name a few, have perpetrated a series of lies to “frame” Donald Trump before during and now after his presidency! Google; Pelosi, “Wrap up smear”! ALL of which was knowingly false just to stop DJT from getting in their way!

You and I both know this absolutely was a coordinated effort which proves conspiracy! The media as well is not just bought, they have proven time and again by their own reporting, foreknowledge of many of the falsehoods. These evil ppl have pulled out ALL the stops to what they

won’t do! With this new (false) administration, they are telling Us, up is down, black is white, and left is right, and if you don’t STFU and obey, we will send you to re-education camps. This is NOT a Dems v Reps operation, as we have proof that there are only a handful from
TRUMP

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FEW USEFUL CHARTINK SCANNERS :

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Here is a special thread introducing our series on “The Making of the Islamic World.” It offers 10 episodes about the transformation of Islamicate societies between the 7th and 17th centuries. You can find the series page here: https://t.co/7mL9eWmMmz


This is Chris Gratien posting. I created this series during Fall 2020 for my students as asynchronous material supported by readings and discussion. This is going to be a long thread, but it will be a great shortcut for those looking to make similar use of these materials.

There are two items worth pointing out: 1. This is an overview of the political, social, and cultural history of Islamicate societies. It does not deal with the origins of Islam or many theological questions. It does discuss Islam’s spread and the transformation of Islamic law.

2. This is the first part of a two-part sequence that takes the history of the Islamic world into the present. It emphasizes developments and themes that have particular relevance for later periods.

This is really a multivocal narrative of Islamic history. We feature over 20 scholars from almost as many institutions. Many of those who worked on it, myself included, study the early modern and modern era but have teaching obligations that take us further back in history.
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Facebook originally a CIA program called "LifeLog".
LifeLog, via DARPA, terminated on Feb 4th, 2004.
Facebook was launched on Feb 4th, 2004.
Many of the LifeLog team became execs at FB.
Zuckerberg is a figurehead.
CIA allowed Cambridge to help Trump win

https://t.co/enzOXDCogV


Pentagon Kills LifeLog
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Here is Editor-in-Chief of the @EpochTimes, @JasperFakkert's response to the slanted hit piece that @Buzzfeed's @HayesBrown put up 2 days ago:

Brown's article at Buzzfeed starts off pretending it's some kind of really off-the-wall notion that Hillary Clinton paid for the creation of the Steele Dossier that was then used to justify the FBI's spying on the Trump campaign & transition team.


After that awful start, he swerves to making accusations that the Epoch Times is connected to the 'cult' Falon Gong.

You can read the article here:

Brown insinuates with no real evidence whatsoever that the Epoch Times is 'Falon Gong-linked'.

The 'evidence' he supplies in his article to 'prove' @EpochTimes is 'Falon Gong-linked is this:

1) the Epoch Times' extensive *news coverage* of China's attempts to wipe out Falon Gong with intense persecution directed at the group since 1999.

2) a reporter *shouting a question in 2006* at then-President George W. Bush about China's persecution of Falon Gong members.
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Aditya Todmal
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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
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