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Isaac Newton: A brilliant scientist, a terrible investor

How Issac Newton lost $4 million due to the first stock market bubble in history and insider trading

/THREAD/

 1/ Sir Isaac Newton is considered one of the most influential scientists of all time and a key figure in the scientific revolution.

He was a mathematician, physicist, astronomer, theologian, and author.
2/ The most prominent part of his work was the formulation of the laws of motion and the law of gravity.

However, his most prominent failure was losing an entire fortune in the first stock market bubble in history, the South Sea Company in 1720.
3/ Newton was usually a cautious investor.

Before 1720 most of his investments were in safe and reliable securities, various government bonds that delivered a regular stream of income, and shares in a few of the larger companies on the exchange, including South Sea Co.
4/ Newton began in 1720 with stocks and bonds worth approximately £32,000 (close to $6-million in current U.S. dollars).
5/ South Sea Co., set up in 1711 to restructure the British government’s debt, was a vehicle for converting government debt into equity.

Government bondholders were given the option to exchange their securities into South Sea Co. shares.
6/ Dividends were paid on the stock at a lower rate than interest on bonds.

However, the potential for dividend increases and sizable capital gains was created when Parliament gave the company a monopoly on trade with Spain’s colonies in South America.
7/ In June 1720, the British Parliament passed the Bubble Act.

It required all companies that sold stock to the public to hold a royal charter aiming to control rampant speculation.
8/ However, the legislation had been introduced by the South Sea Company presumably as a means of controlling competition in a thriving market.

A well-bribed Parliament and ruling ministry accepted the idea in February, and the deal became official in April.
9/ Investors and gamblers swarmed London’s Exchange Alley, bidding up the stock to £315 on the first day new shares went on sale, 8% up on the day and more than double the price of shares in January.
10/ Newton began buying the stock in 1712.

Over the next eight years, he picked up more shares, using his savings and the proceeds from selling his shares in other companies.

In 1720, he converted his government bonds and annuities into the stock.
11/ The price of South Sea Co.’s stock shot up in 1720, from £128 in early January to £350 in April.

At this point, Newton unloaded most of his shares for a profit of more than £20,000 equal to 200 years of his former annual salary as a professor at the University of Cambridge.
12/ The stock price skyrocketed due to the trading monopoly the company had.

This was amplified by the hundreds of newspapers in London posting glowing articles from esteemed authors, along with rumors about South American commodities that would be imported back to Europe.
13/ The top South Sea leaders did all they could to pump the stock, lending money to fund purchases, secret share buybacks, the aggressive use of an early form of derivatives, and more.

The stock was also made easier to buy through installment plans with 10% downpayments.
14/ The stock kept soaring.

With England in a euphoric mood, watching from the sidelines was hard to do.

By mid-June, Newton could no longer stand the thought of the money he’d “lost” by selling too soon and began to buy back in.
15/ Shortly after, the price hit £800, making the company worth twice the value of all the land in England.

By mid-August, he was paying £700 to £1,000 a share, more than double the price he’d sold in April.
16/ But the share price could only be increased so far above the company’s fundamental value.

In the summer, news broke that insiders were selling.

The stock began to tumble and within a few weeks, plunged back to the £200 level.

So ended the infamous South Sea Bubble.
17/ The South Sea Co. remained in business, but its shares never did regain their glory before Newton died in 1727.

Newton’s losses were catastrophic, likely £20,000, the equivalent of $4 million today.
18/ That year was the first time “bubble” was used in reference to publicly traded companies.

1720 was sometimes referred to as the “Bubble Year”
19/ The South Sea Bubble is alleged to have prompted Newton to exclaim: “I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”

He allegedly forbade everyone from uttering the words "South Sea" in his presence.

/END/
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Charles Ponzi and the Postal Service

The story of the man who put the 'Ponzi' in 'Ponzi scheme'

/THREAD/


1/ Carlo Pietro Giovanni Guglielmo Tebaldo Ponzi, a.k.a. Charles Ponzi, was an italian swindler and con-artist.

Born in 1882 in Italy, he became notorious for his money-making fraudulent schemes in North America in the 1920s.


2/ He arrived in Boston in late 1903 with $2.50 in his pocket.

After many professional failures, he moved to Montreal in 1907 and started working as a bank teller at Banco Zarossi, where he rose to the position of bank manager.


3/ This is where he first witnessed the bank's scheme, where Zarossi was funding interest payments using deposits from newly opened accounts instead of investment profits.

4/ Ponzi served 3 years in jail for check forgery and returned to the US after his release.

However, he got involved in smuggling illegal immigrants into the country landing in prison for another 2 years, moving back to Boston after that.
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Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
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@itsKostasWithK
Companies to AVOID

/THREAD/

Some tips by Peter Lynch, one of the most successful investors of all time, on which companies to avoid investing in


1. Hottest stock in the hottest industry, with nothing but hope and thin air to support them (MJ stocks in 2017, internet stocks in 2000, electric vehicles in 2020)

Deteriorating balance sheet.

When analysts predict double-digit growth forever, the industry goes into decline.

2. Product/service, not protected by patent or niche, easy to be replicated by competitors, especially in a high-growth industry.

3. The "Next Something"

Everyone wants the next $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOG

Most likely you won't find a company to replicate their business with that success.

4. Diversification = companies wasting capital on foolish acquisitions, in new sectors they do not understand, and in companies that are overvalued.
TRADING , INVEST
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Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
If you want to become financially independent and don't know where to start, here is a thread that will help you get started

/THREAD/

1. Review your expenses and make a budget

It will help you see where you overspend, make a plan to save, pay down debt and start


2. Set your investing and retirement goals

How much do you need to support yourself in retirement and when do you want to


3. The earlier you start investing, the better.

Here's why and how time and compounding can become your


4. Invest in an index fund

It's easy, safe, cheap, and the best choice for a beginner in investing, with not much time for
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Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
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This year I started writing daily on Twitter about finance and investing and gained more than 500 followers in 2 weeks

Here are the main things I learned on Twitter growth

1. Brand
2. Content
3. Engagement
4. Networking
5. Tools

/THREAD/

1. Brand
You need to find a niche you are interested in and focus on it
E.g. finance, fashion, travel, etc.

Adjust your profile by adding a profile picture and banner that will show someone what your profile is about and why they should follow you.

Add a linktree that will have all the links for your blog, website, newsletter, etc.

2. Content
Don't wait to gain followers before posting. Nobody will follow you if they see an empty feed.

Start posting daily focusing more on single tweets or threads that provide insights on a topic people in your niche might be interested in.

At first, it will feel like talking to a mirror.

Have a pinned tweet, which will be your best one that will catch the attention of someone visiting your profile.
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Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
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The Baltimore Stockbroker Parable

How one stockbroker managed to achieve a 100% success rate in predicting stock movements

/THREAD/


1/ One day you receive an unsolicited newsletter from a stockbroker in Baltimore.

It contains a tip that a certain stock will soon rise sharply.

A week passes, and as he predicted, the stock goes up.


2/ The next week, you get another newsletter from the stockbroker, this time with a tip about a stock that will fall.

And next week, the stock craters.


3/ Ten weeks go by, and each week you receive a tip about a stock that will go up or down.

Every time the prediction comes true.


4/ On the 11th week, you get a solicitation to invest your money with the Baltimore stockbroker for a hefty commission, justified by his successful predictions.

That sounds like a great deal, right?
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There is no shortage of takes about what's going on with Gamestop (and other surging stocks), Robinhood and Reddit's r/wallstreetbets, many of them contradictory - at least on the face of them. But I think it's possible for most of these takes to be right. Here's how.

1/


First you need to understand the underlying mechanics of the story. Stock markets are fundamentally a way of making bets, including bets on the outcome of other peoples' bets, and bets on the outcomes of THOSE bets.

2/

All this complexity creates lots of exploitable opportunities. Some of these opportunities are considered legitimate and are given respectable names like "arbitrage." Others are considered illegitimate, and are called disreputable things like "stock manipulation."

3/

A hypothetical Martian observing all this through a telescope could not tell you which kinds of bets were honest and which were dishonest, because the difference isn't about any objective standard, but rather, about power.

4/

The strategies of powerful people are legit, while the strategies of their would-be dethroners are not legit. Sometimes, even outright frauds are OK if they're done by people with enough power.

5/
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I have to wear shoes? \U0001f339
I have to wear shoes? ...
@migbike
A thread about GameStop:

Big hedge funds made big bets that GameStop’s stock was overvalued. The way these bets work is the hedge fund borrows shares of the stock and sells those borrowed shares.

When it comes time to give the borrowed shares back, they buy them on the market, hopefully at lower prices. For example, they might sell the borrowed share at $50, hoping to be able to buy the share back at $30, to make a $20 profit. This is called shorting.

The hedge funds were so sure that GameStop was going down, that GameStop was the most shorted stock on the market. 140% of the shares in existence were “borrowed.” Imagine Bob borrows from Jane who borrows from Sue who borrows from John.

Shorting is risky, but the hedge funds were so sure that they just didn’t even care. People on Reddit realized this and basically thought “what if we all just bought shares and refused to sell them when the hedge funds need to give their borrowed shares back.”

The price goes up, the hedge funds are forced to buy back the expensive shares and lose money. Except the hedge funds kept doubling down as the price rode up, expecting that it would eventually fall. The Redditors weren't scared off and with "diamond hands" refused to sell.
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10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.


2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.
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Trader knight
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Overthinking - The art of creating problems which weren't even there.

Thread on How Over-analysis leads to decision Paralysis-


What is Analysis paralysis?

In simple terms, analysis paralysis is a person's tendency to over-analyze or over-think upon a decision to such an extent that he/she fails to make a choice resulting in a paralyzed state of inaction.


How a retail trader trades-

A trader named Rahul, He know all the basics of markets, He also has made a system which gives signals on nifty, he has also encorporated good Risk management and Position sizing into his system.

One day he gets a signal to buy Nifty at 13500 with stop at 13450, he wanted to take the trade, but he wanted to get sure that the trade he has take should be a winner.

So he says just let me check the RSI if its above this level I will buy , he checks it and it was above his

level, then again he wants to check another indicator named MACD, he wanted to get sure man, Now he do the most intelligent thing to get sure he gets right.

He goes to twitter and ask his twitter Friend Trader knight he ask him that should I buy nifty at 13500,
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My swing cash strategy ☢️
(In simple language)

1⃣ #stock selection process - always choose that stock which are consolidating near all time high

(Because whenever stock will give all time high breakout then it will easily give 20/30% return in 1/2 months

2⃣Volume analysis - In that consolidating period volume should be high of up move days then down move days. And last 3/4 month volume of accumulation is must higher then previous days.

3️⃣ fund diversification - always deploy your capital in 3/4 stocks, not more then that or not less then 3.

And, your 3/4 stocks must be from different strong sectors.

4⃣comunding magic - If you hold 10 stocks then if 2 stocks will give 100% return then portfolio impact is 20% only. (here time period is 8/15 months)

If you hold 3 stocks out of them 2 will give 40% then ur portfolio impact is 25%
(Here time period is 1/3 months)

5⃣sectors analysis - always choose that sector stocks which are near support or breakout stage.

If any stocks is out of nifty sector then u can open stock scanner website and check their peer charts.If out of 5 ,3 are strong then u can select that
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Payyanur Sri Subramanya Swami Temple 🚩
Kerala

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Srikanteshwara Temple,
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