BC TRADING
Saved by @jay_millerjay

1/ Since Dec, $TWTR stock has grown 50% above all-time highs. Lots has been said about Twitter’s product upside, ability to capture more of the value it creates (see @Post_Market @juliey4 @modestproposal1). I want to talk about the biggest bull thesis I see: cultural determinism

 2/ I'm a huge believer in cultural determinism (see Nintendo essay) - who a company is/been trained ‘to be’ in turn decides who a company ‘will’ or ‘can’ be.

CD is distinct from whether a culture is good, employees talented, committed to change, etc.
https://t.co/bUHuLiZuKT
3/ By the early 2010s, Twitter began to solidify cultural premises: it was focused on building up ad revenues rather than maximizing reach or users/its network, building a self-contained ecosystem, and in my view, a misplaced obsession with “live”
4/ This contrasted with competitors focused on network growth (FB), product enhancements (Snap), total creators (YT, Unity). Instead, Twitter throttled APIs and 3P devs, ignored opportunity to be a standard protocol for internet comms (h/t @AVC in 2016)
https://t.co/wGSjn4XKUH
5/ How did we see this? Lots of externally focused product investments – e.g. SeeIt TV Everywhere authentication experience w/ Comcast, helping TV networks integrate Tweets into live TV, allowing advertisers to buy Twitter adds… through Google AdWords!
https://t.co/goImtYg2ls
6/ This was during a time in which product innovation for Twitter users were modest-to-null. In 2017, Twitter said usernames would no longer count in Tweet counts…. They still do. It took Twitter seven years to add stories (“Fleets”)
https://t.co/WRQVWWeoLJ
7/ Touted “top secret” Project Lightning was just a rather haphazard editorial curation of tweets + trending topics on a the “Explore” tab (like all social apps).

i.e. Twitter focused on tweet exposure, not better Tweets (UGC "moments" never took off)
https://t.co/70i0vQKv64
8/ Obsession with live seemed most misleading. I’m a big believer in live, it's a big differentiator, + Twitter is fascinating/superb when something important is happening in real time (e.g. storming of the Capitol)

Real value, though, is in follow graph + frictionless sharing
9/ But Twitter is rarely “live”. It’s recent-ish or whenever.

Best tweets, shares, ideas tend not to be live. Most of your feed could have been shared 10 mins/hours later.

Core idea of QT/RT is… non-live sharing!

Very little is actually *real-time* (+not synchronous anyway)
10/ Fact Twitter rolled out an algo feed default shows this.

Stories + TikToks are some of the biggest social innovations of the past decade, neither are really live (they’re as live as most Tweets).

And of course, most efforts here (e.g. Periscope, Facebook Live) didn’t work
11/ Twitter’s philosphical obsession with ‘live’ explains focus on Live TV + many missed opportunities - RSS reader, publishing platform, protocol (don’t need to be a protocol if you’re ‘the’ destination after all), Stories, underlying product changes like longer tweets/edits
12/ Just look at ‘how much’ Twitter invested in live video, too. How many of these actually led to major events on Twitter? And did they need to be broadcast on Twitter to be big on Twitter?

Note these focused, again, not on user/creators, but ad revenues + external partners
13/ Consider how truly terrible search is on Twitter. Let alone DM search.

Makes sense if you think these old, asynchronous messages are low value, not your core .

Took forever to build a Tweetstorm function. How could long, pre-thought (i.e. not live) threads be a priority?
14/ Connects to (non-live) Vine. Vine is fascinating given it shutdown right as TikTok was starting to take off (and it is now far more valuable than Twitter). But crucially, Twitter reportedly pulled the plug after top talent wanted <$30MM a year to stay https://t.co/ZNl0lrrNTN
15/ This wasn’t a unique POV in the mid-2010s: platforms believed their job was to enable creators to make money, not to actually to pay them, or build products specifically to help them make money

This was very wrong (h/t @turnernovak)
16/ @Benthompson talks about the famous “Bill Gates Line”: A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it. Then it’s a platform.”
17/ For years, $Fintwit joked that Twitter is the best example or a platform (and therefore the worst business) because the value it creates is so, so, so enormously above what it captures. And it’s growing. Reason why @DanielSLoeb1 @plaffont and SAC joined Twitter last 6 months
18/ Anyway, this returns to cultural determinism. I see a lot of evidence of fundamental, cultural beliefs changing in Twitter. This doesn’t change the options available to them, but changes their ability to realize them. Massively.

It takes time to do this - years.
19/ For example, Twitter Spaces are launching MUCH faster (if still too slowly) than Fleets did (Clubhouse:Snapchat). Jack is talking openly about the desire to be a protocol, to invest in decentralized communication solutions https://t.co/gD5a6A7JeZ
20/ Many new products are not live: Revue newsletter, Fleets, even Spaces, which are live rarely *about* live, they’re ambient hangouts – more like dropping by a ‘clubhouse’ than tuning into a press conference.
21/ Most importantly, Twitter is embracing subscription/user fees rather than just advertising (e.g. paying for a newsletter, tipping an account, private access to a Space). I can’t highlight the value here enough – advertising is less than half of media revenues, and declining
22/ Twitter focusing on helping creators, thought leaders, influencers, entertainers all to create, memorialize, and build high revenue business on Twitter... is actually a huge shift.

Both because it raises the platform value Twitter creates, AND it's capture
23/ This tweetstorm doesn't have a model, doesn't have a product forecast, nor a price target. Those are important, but not my lane.

I also think they're far less important than cultural determinism - the underlying, most important, and hardest to change variable in the above
24/ In sum, I'm long $TWTR.

The theses of what Twitter can be, could be, and should capture hasn't changed. I think what the *company * can be and wants to be has.

More from Trading

Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
Technical Analysis Masterclass- Part 2

'Entering the trade'

Entering a trade without ascertaining a certain things is gambling.

In this masterclass we will learn the pre-requisites to enter a trade.

DON'T ENTER A TRADE WITHOUT DETERMINNG THE FOLLOWING.

Please share.

We understand what reward to risk (popularly called risk to reward) is.
It will be denoted by R:R.

We will also try to bust a few myths about R:R and how to avoid losing trades.

Before entering a trade, you need to determine 3 things.

1. Entry trigger
2. Stop loss
3. Target

1. Entry trigger = Reasons for entering a trade. There could be multiple reasons or a single reason for entry.

Generally a set of reasons AKA confluence is a higher probability trade and a generally a safer entry.

Example of an entry trigger.


2. Stop Loss.

The price in the opposite direction of the trade where the trade is exited, at a loss.

At this level, the reason for the entry becomes invalidated according to TA and the price can then move in the opposite direction, probabilistically.


3. Target is the possible price level that the asset might touch based on previous trends or confluence AND where a possible reversal could occur.

Target is the next path of least resistance from where the price might reverse.

We will always ONLY use TA to determine all 3.
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Emperor\U0001f451
Emperor👑
@EmperorBTC
CHEAT-SHEET

Multiple Confirmation short.

A Short Entry that we shared in 2020.

Study it point wise.

1. Bearish Candle type and lowering of volume on Price rise.

2. OBV divergence.

3. Accumulation with Bearish candles and Volume increase on Price decrease.

STUDY IT!


Explanation

1. When price increases with a decreasing volume, it's bearish.

2. OBV, On Balance Volume should be correlated with price.
If price increases without similar increase in OBV, it's bearish.

3. During consolidation, if the volume increases during dumps, it's bearish
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
A THREAD ON SL, TSL AND RE-ENTRIES-


WHERE TO PUT THE SL-

1. NEAREST PIVOT/SWING POINTS-

Normally I use this method for placing sl, In this method we use swing point for placing the SL.

As normally the stock would not try to go below previous swing point if it is to go in our direction.


2. ATR method-

Sometimes the Stock do not have any nearest pivot at time of buy, So we use this method as it gives us a level on basis of current volatility of the stock.

I use 1.5 ATR away sl , say the ATR at point of entry is 30, so I place sl
1.5 X, or 45 rs away from entry

In below example the entry is 120, ATR=5, SL= 1.5X ATR= 7.5 OR 113.

Nearest pivot was too far away, that’s why this method is used in these cases.


4. Anchor candles-

Anchor bars are those which have extreme Volume, gaps or wide Ranges.

Here, we place our sl below those candles which has the above characteristics.
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Madan
Madan
@madan_kumar
Thread on 'no stop loss', 'adjustments' and 'Risk'
----------------------------------------------------

Wanted to share my thoughts on this topic for a long time but this email sent by someone yday woke me up from slumber

Pls read the email 1st before delving into thread

(1/n)


In the past 1-2 years, there has been a sudden surge of traders who just talk about theta decay, option selling, adjustments and stuff like that..

It is all fair as long as the trader knows what he's doing. But the reality is far from what we see/perceive...

(2/n)

Many of these folks were told that one can 'adjust' their way out of any situation. Any sane options trader know that you cannot come out of any situation by adjustment

One of my friend used to do that(he is famous in options selling desi fintwit) for a long time until..

(3/n)

..he realized that one cannot possibly do that and its gonna burn him one day. He's pretty smart and hence, he put a portfolio level SL & when that hits, he will stop dancing, gets out and calls it a day

So, risk is managed at account level and he is quite clear about it

(4/n)

Unfortunately, 1000s of traders who does option selling(with adjustment) dont have this risk mgmt in place.

They think (i dont know if i had to call it false confidence or ignorance) their skills in 'adjusting' will take them ashore 😅

(5/n)
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JayneshKasliwal
JayneshKasliwal
@JayneshKasliwal
How to Avoid Big Losses In trading ?

1. Avoid Stocks Below 200 ema
2. Sell Stocks in Stage 4 Down Trend
3. Dont Trade Stocks that are moving in Circuits
4. Avoid News based Trading

A thread With examples🔖

Retweet to Educate Your Trading Friends !
1/n

A Study Shows that 90% of the winning Stocks stay above 200 ema before a big Advancing Phase

1. Simply Not Holding or Buying Stocks below 200 ema Saves a lot of time and Money.
2. You can looses opportunity Cost if you buy stocks below 200 ema.
3. TimeFrame: Daily 200 ema

2/n


B. Sell Stocks in Stage 4 Down Trend

1. Stocks Exhibiting this are in complete Bear Grip
2. The 30 week ema acts as reference for stage analysis
3. These Stocks can be short sold on pullback to 30wema
4. Happens after Topping Phase
5. TimeFrame : Weekly , 30 Week Ema

3/n


C. Dont Trade Stocks that are moving in Circuits

1. Mostly these stocks are Speculatve and Operator Driven.
2. You never know what is the top of the trend and may get Stuck with Huge Losses

Example : TTML , Alok , Ruchi etc
This is Pyramid Structure and news driven also
4/n


D. Avoid News based Trading
1. Whenever a postive News comes in Market People Jump in Buying the Stocks without thinking .
2. Most of the the times the news is factored in or gets factored after heavy buying
3. Your Money may get Stuck

Example : PnbBousing , AdaniPower
5/n
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In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.

In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.

This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.

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🌿𝑻𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒚 𝒐𝒇 𝒂 𝑺𝒕𝒂𝒓 : 𝑫𝒉𝒓𝒖𝒗𝒂 & 𝑽𝒊𝒔𝒉𝒏𝒖

Once upon a time there was a Raja named Uttānapāda born of Svayambhuva Manu,1st man on earth.He had 2 beautiful wives - Suniti & Suruchi & two sons were born of them Dhruva & Uttama respectively.
#talesofkrishna https://t.co/E85MTPkF9W


Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
#KrishnaLeela


The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.


One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.


Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"
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Seth Abramson
Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
(THREAD) The Whitaker scandal is deepening, as it becomes clear that Sessions' Russia recusal was a coordinated sham and his firing an act of obstruction—and that his replacement is a White House plant inside the Mueller probe. I hope you'll retweet and read on for more details.


1/ From 2014-17 Whitaker worked for World Patent Marketing—which during his tenure defrauded consumers out of $26 million and was successfully prosecuted by the feds. His involvement in the scam confirmed he had loose morals and that the feds would never want to employ him again.

2/ Despite the seeming impossibility of a man with Whitaker's background getting a job at Justice ever again—he'd been found to have used his former title as a US attorney to fraudulently threaten consumers with valid complaints with criminal penalties—Whitaker found an opening.

3/ Within 60 days of parachuting out of World Patent Marketing as it was being fined $26 million by the feds, Whitaker was working for CNN and telling a fellow attorney panelist that his purpose in working for CNN was to get noticed by one man—Donald Trump—and thereby get a job.

4/ Whitaker spent his time at CNN making ludicrous statements about the Mueller probe: there was no obstruction or collusion, he said; Mueller had no authority to look into any aspect of Trump's finances or to subpoena him, he said. All the while, he hoped Trump was watching him.
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History Of Rajputana
History Of Rajputana
@KshatriyaItihas
**Thread on Bravery of Sikhs**
(I am forced to do this due to continuous hounding of Sikh Extremists since yesterday)

Rani Jindan Kaur, wife of Maharaja Ranjit Singh had illegitimate relations with Lal Singh (PM of Ranjit Singh). Along with Lal Singh, she attacked Jammu, burnt - https://t.co/EfjAq59AyI


Hindu villages of Jasrota, caused rebellion in Jammu, attacked Kishtwar.

Ancestors of Raja Ranjit Singh, The Sansi Tribe used to give daughters as concubines to Jahangir.


The Ludhiana Political Agency (Later NW Fronties Prov) was formed by less than 4000 British soldiers who advanced from Delhi and reached Ludhiana, receiving submissions of all sikh chiefs along the way. The submission of the troops of Raja of Lahore (Ranjit Singh) at Ambala.

Dabistan a contemporary book on Sikh History tells us that Guru Hargobind broke Naina devi Idol Same source describes Guru Hargobind serving a eunuch
YarKhan. (ref was proudly shared by a sikh on twitter)
Gobind Singh followed Bahadur Shah to Deccan to fight for him.


In Zafarnama, Guru Gobind Singh states that the reason he was in conflict with the Hill Rajas was that while they were worshiping idols, while he was an idol-breaker.

And idiot Hindus place him along Maharana, Prithviraj and Shivaji as saviours of Dharma.
HISTORY
foone
foone
@Foone
So I was talking to @gewt about Job: A Comedy of Justice and I came up with a theory that I think explains why Heinlein's late-period work is so kinda-terrible and why I still enjoy it so much


So Heinlein had always been very interesting in the short parts of his novels, like the little snippets inside chapters. He had a very fun writing style, and wrote some fun dialogue with fun characters, right?>
It probably comes from how much of his early stuff was short fiction

And I think what happened with a lot of his longer works is that he'd just start writing fun bits and hope it would end up going somewhere or having a bigger plot by the end. like eventually he'd figure out where this was going, then go back and rewrite it into a cohesive whole

and I'm sure he had editors that'd help this process. No editor would let you publish something as rambly and changing-gears-every-other-chapter as The Number Of The Beast, for example... unless you were God-King Of Science Fiction 1980s Robert Heinlein.

so basically I think what happened is that by the 80s (when he was in his seventies!!) he lost the drive to go back and rewrite and he was too Untouchable for editors to make him.
CULTURE


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