BC TRADING
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/ Having built online trading platforms, I can share insights what is happening with #RobinhoodApp, why their businessmodel is shady and how this $GME 🚀🚀🚀squeeze makes this all a pretty messy affair.

So, a thread 👇🏻

 2/ Firstly, the well hidden truth of online trading platforms is that most of the active traders lose money. And most does not mean 51%, but this is more like 90-95%. Clients burn out quite quickly as well.
3/ Some research:
a) from Brazil: "97% of traders lose money" https://t.co/DVEfRkyvuS
b) from Taiwan: "Less than 1% of daytraders consistently earn positive returns"
https://t.co/920redEG3D
4/ If we take a 100 year stock market chart, one can clearly see that longterm investing makes a lot of sense, whereas active trading most often is not a very rational thing to do. People do it because they think they can be better than the average.
5/ Every online broker should say to their clients "just do long term buy and hold, please-pretty-please do not do any trading stuff." But have you seen messages like that? Me neither.

The reason is that one active trader can bring fees like 500 passive investors.
6/ Robinhood goes extra mile with making leverage and options available to small investors that will probably increase the number of clients that will burn out even more.

The chart below shows how call option activity in US has made all time records due to Robinhood customers
7/ Since novice traders usually play the long side, extraordinarily good times on markets will increase the % of traders with positive returns. But only temporarily.

Last 6 months have been super bullish and therefore r/wallstreetbets has such a big number of active traders.
8/ In addition to all that Robinhood sells it's clients trading flows to Citadel et al. This is the way they can offer free trading.

Citadel can then use flow data to their own benefit and that is very likely totally against the benefit of Robinhood customers.
9/ Comparison to Facebook is a suitable one for Robinhood. "If you are not paying, you are not the customer you are the product". Free trades is a marketing gimmick to lure in investors, usually they would be better off trading elsewhere and paying some commissions.
10/ An important detail: most of the accounts at RH are margin accounts. If Robinhood goes belly up, then the stocks on your account are not yours they are on RH's balance sheet. "Cash account" is the account type where you own shares. If that gets more publicity - bank run.
11/ We do not have enough facts to decide if Citadel also pushed Robinhood to limit $GME trading. On one hand it makes a lot of sense for some parties to pressure RH with that and Wall Street is even more connected than everybody thinks. But RH also really has a liquidity problem
12/ All the $GME saga pushed aside, the stuff above shows that Robinhood really is doing some nasty business. Selling trading info to big players and pushing novice investors to trade, that is just plain ugly. And complete opposite of Robin Hood principles.
13/ This all also is a reason why I have not started another brokerage project. Most of the money is made there on the trading side. A reasonable approach would be to push people towards longterm investing, but it's hard to make money there.
14/ At least their masks are now off. Robinhood probably needs another bailout and the ugly PR-fiasco with $GME is pretty lethal, lots of customers will leave - business will never be the same for them.

"Do no evil" still should be a key principle for every startup.
15/ If just this $GME thing can cause Robinhood such liquidity problems they must have a pretty horrible risk management. Should make customers worried.

Taleb's take on VaR used by RH and regulators is just not smart at all:
https://t.co/IJwwc244bX

More from Trading

10-K Diver
10-K Diver
@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.


2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.
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Sarang Sood
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FINDING EDGE IN OPTIONS

24/08/15: Nifty gap down 250 points & another 250 after that. Previous few months return gone, but since I'm quick to take my losses, was saved from ruin. Before that my only edge in option selling was adjustments & my forever edge of following PA. (1/n)

I soon realised that theta decay with sound adjustments is not an edge, which i earlier thought was & which gave me good returns over the years. After that i went deeper in understanding volatility behaviour, how/where it manifests & all the discrepancies in option chain. (2/n)

With finding edge in logistics i mean how to keep the greeks in check, SL in place & optimum ways of adjustments with minimum slippages. So the main aim here is to write theta without following vol behaviour & having any actual knowledge of what's going on in the markets. (3/n)

A dedicated trader can learn all this in few years & it is something which is 'obvious' to become successful. But majority can't reach this level, as this also requires consistent hustle in live markets. All the seminar/webinar business teaches you till this level only.(4/n)

If you get passed this level though, the real work starts, when you have to find your real edge. This can't be taught in a webinar. It needs serious introspection of your trading skills, psychology & strategies in use, which ultimately allow you to book excellent profits. (5/n)
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Abhishek Kar
Abhishek Kar
@Abhishekkar_
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗢𝗣𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗-𝟮
So we had discussed a few pointers in the previous thread about options,its time now we discuss further implications and applicability in this thread which will help you in NEW YEAR.
Let’s go and dive into the world of options trading.

-The amount of decay can be measured by theta. This is why you can be right on stock price direction and still lose money. The time decay portion of the option price overpowers the directional move in the underlying stock price.

-During result days due to the heightened uncertainty, there is opportunity for options sellers because of the expensive premium. When entering into an earnings trade, it is optimal to initiate the trade as close in time to the event as possible.

-Keep some cash on sidelines. This would help in adjustments,margin expansion,face losses and also during new opportunities which suddenly arise. A lot of people do the mistake of going all in and regretting later.

-Everything in trading has a trade off.

Unlimited profit comes at the expense of low probability of profit. Give up some profit potential, and you gain a higher probability of profit.
-By using portfolio beta weighted delta, you can accurately gauge your overall portfolio risk. If your portfolio is leaning too far in..
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Anshika Sharma\u26a1
Anshika Sharma⚡
@Anshi_________
Full Technical Analysis in Single Thread🧵

This whole course is worth 40-50K-

1- Candle sticks and how to use

2- Advanced price action

3- The dow theory

4- Moving
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Anon
Anon
@AnonTrader21
A thread on getting intraday (any timeframe) data to excel without any coding. Limited to only last 60 days. Fetches from zerodha chart.

👇

1. Open the chart on zerodha web in chrome. Right click and select 'Inspect'. Click 'Network' as shown in this pic.


2. Right click on the last entry on the table you see and click 'copy as cURL (bash)'


3. Go to website https://t.co/f8rhwoGLUc and paste on the left box and click 'Run'

4. The output below candles written on right of box is the ohlc, volume and oi data. Copy and paste to excel.
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Manipulation Sign:

If you are compromising too much, there is a chance that you are getting manipulated.

Why are you the one that's always compromising?

How come the other person always gets their way?

Be more curious.

If something seems off, stick up for yourself.

'Wait, you sure I am being manipulated?'

I have no clue, that is only something that you can decide for yourself.

'Dang is there anything I need to look out for?'

Plenty..

But let me give you a few things to look out for.

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I see manipulation as skillfully controlling someone's behavior for egotistical or unethical purposes.

'How come people don't leave when it's happening to them?'

Because most people have 0 clue that they are being manipulated.

1. Guilt Trip

You ever made a mistake around someone, only for them to hold it over your head?

The will always bring up the mistake when you 2 are not seeing eye to eye.

These people will use that mistake as leverage to get what they want from you in the future.

Look out.

2. The Rationalizer

This person will commit the worst acts & find a way to rationalize it.

Example: cheaters when they get caught.

They have every excuse in the book for why they did it.

Heck, they are so good at rationalizing, they will make it seem like your fault.
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1/n

Moving averages
EMA and SMA
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is similar to Simple Moving Average (SMA), measuring trend direction over a period of time.
2. However, whereas SMA simply calculates an average of price data, EMA applies more weight to data that is more current
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21 EMA : SHORT TERM TREND
1. Calculates the Average Price of past 21 days
2. A stock above 21 ema is in strong momentum , which will give pullbacks to 21 ema again and again.
3. Stock above 21 ema should never be shorted so as to stay with the trend
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3. A stock which moves 10-15% above 21 ema will be too extended and hence will generally pullback
Stocks take dynamic support on 21 ema
4. You can Short only if its too extended like 15 to 20% from 21 ema ( Not advised )
#ADANIPOWER:
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4/n


1. Whenever 21 ema is sloping upwards its called uptrend
2. Whenever 21 ema is sloping downwards its called dowtrend
3. Whenever 21 ema is sideways its called consolidation
⏫Buy in uptrend
⏬Sell in downtrend
Examples:
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NARHARI AND BHAGWAN PANDURANG/VITTHAL

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He wanted a gold girdle studded with precious gems, to be made for Prabhu Vitthal. Narhari refused to make it as it was for Vitthal.
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Only give these currencies to high value people. Never spend these currencies on low value shitheads eg: trolls, weasels, snakes, naysayers etc.

'Wait, I thought money was the most important currency?'

Nah.

Once you adopt abundance mentality, you realize their is no shortage of money.

Making the dollars your most important currency will have you leading an empty life.

Time to flip your perspective.

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▪Energy

When you strip yourself to the core, you are an emotional creature.

Emotions are your internal worlds energy.

Harnessing that energy is crucial for leveraging yourself to obtain whatever you want.

You have a finite amount everyday, so spend it wisely.

▪Time

A second that is lost will never be returned.

You start valuing the hell out of this currency the more you mature.

As the years start adding up, you realize time is precious.

You must always have a scarcity mindset towards time.

Once you do so, you will not be lazy.

▪Attention

You can be here, but not present.

Attention is completely mental.

Giving someone your attention means you are clearing up mental bandwidth to make room for them.

Only give your attention to people who help you grow.

For the negative ones?

Ignore their existence
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