As someone who tried the blockbuster rinse and repeat short (unsuccessfully btw) on $gme almost a decade ago I'm quite familiar with the name. Burry's re-emergence at the end of 2018 & roughly $5ml gme position disclosure then put the stock on the deep value radar.
So I've followed DFV's $GME journey from beginning and think it says a lot about what's going on here. How do u go from $50k to $40ml deep value screening in about a year which btw beats $nflx and $amzn growth return holding for decades? A
As someone who tried the blockbuster rinse and repeat short (unsuccessfully btw) on $gme almost a decade ago I'm quite familiar with the name. Burry's re-emergence at the end of 2018 & roughly $5ml gme position disclosure then put the stock on the deep value radar.
$gme dropped like 50% in h1 2019 and his q2 disclosure indicated he had exited the name. It was at this time DFV emerged onto WSB with an essentially i'll take this shot at half MB's cost basis with the console refresh a year out thesis.
I don't recall him fully articulating the thesis then, but that really didn't matter as MB remerged with a 3-4% activist stake by the Aug 2019 about 70% lower than his year end 2018 cost basis. MB wanted a buyback immediately & criticized mgmt past capital alloc failures.
To be clear the thesis did not provide deep dive analysis on $GME or the industry. MB simply seemed to be of the view that the console refresh meant things were not ending anytime soon, and that simply buying back stock in size was the right move for mgmt.
DFV structured his position around that console launch rerate, and to his credit has been fantastic to watch with respect how he has managed that all the way. Also, the guy is just super affable and clearly passionate which is a rare mix in the space. But the thesis was wrong.
The console refresh was actually viewed negatively by people who did the deep analysis on the name and so was a large buyback even after they sold Spring wireless. Enter COVID-19....
As the value trap that was $GME was playing out the pandemic added its bizarro twist on all things. In theory it made the business an obvious and faster secular death, but in practice it provided a gasp of financial life for it.
$GME was expected to reduce costs, but the bear thesis assumed continued pressure on the balance sheet as profitability erosion was accelerating. Covid temporary halted all this.
This wasn't obvious to most people till the fall, and it definitely wasn't obvious to DFV in the summer when he posted his video explaining his entire thesis to the now growing audience on WSB. He was actually shocked the stock was under $4 with consoles now around the corner.
But the thesis started to catch some interest as gaming and hobby demand under covid combined with a high short interest was sprinkled on top of the console catalyst. Then the Chewy founder showed up at the end of august with a turnaround angle for the post-covid ecom era.
At this point DFV entered influencer land with his updates and the stock 3x pretty quick as the temporary covid benefits came to light. It's around here that the 'deep value' investment should been sold. But now it was an ecom-inflcr/turnaround stk w console lurking..MOAR!
On the bear side though nothing had changed, in fact the consensus view was the odds of a turnaround were now even less likely and the post-covid cliff looming now accelerated as far as digital delivery.
So, in sum the original thesis was wrong. In fact, GME would most likely blown up had it done an accelerated buyback. And console is proving to be exactly what the bears said it wud be. But Covid brought a giant audience to DFV who bought the same thesis.
And they bought the thesis because it was genuine, and to almost anyone who didn't really wade into things made perfect sense. Anecdotal online evidence of resilience of physical disks etc combined with hobby trading mania was enough for them.
And $chwy founder added a whole new narrative to the name. So, DFV was wrong enough to not be successful on his deep value buy before the consl refresh and lucky enough to catch a pandemic so bad that $gme couldn't continue failing on its path without some interruption.
This brings me to the last part. The current gamma squeeze and the chaos around it. The stock has gone from $20 to nearly $500 in nearly ten trading sessions. DFV has continued to hold his stock and bulk of options. This is most definitely not deep value investing.
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A THREAD ON @SarangSood
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.
Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen
1. Keeps following volatility super closely.
Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.
Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.
I am quite different from your style. I follow the market's volatility very closely. I have mock positions in 7-8 different strategies which allows me to stay connected. Whichever gives best profit is usually the one i trade in.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) August 13, 2019
2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.
Anilji most of the time these days Theta only falls when market moves. So the Theta actually falls where market has moved to, not where our position was in the first place. By shifting we can come close to capturing the Theta fall but not always.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) June 24, 2019
3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result
He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.
This week has been great so far. The main aim is to be in the right side of the volatility, rest the market will reward.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) July 3, 2019
4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega
Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.
There is a difference between theta decay & fall in vega. Decay is certain but there is no guaranteed profit as delta moves can increase cost. Fall in vega on the other hand is backed by a powerful force that sells options and gives handsome returns. Our job is to identify them.
— Sarang Sood (@SarangSood) February 12, 2020
