Many people on FinTwit incorrectly invoke Soros to justify buying TSLA or other trends at the highs. Soros preferred being early, having a trend, a misconception, a change of fundamentals and some early confirmation in price. Here are 7 examples I have on right now. A thread:

1/ The trend: climate change & growing Chinese wealth. The misconception: agriculture prices will always go down due to improved crop productivity. The Shock: Locust plague in Africa & water scarcity. The Trade: Long Cocoa Futures versus Hershey. The Confirmation:
2/ The trend: nationalism and Realpolitik. The misconception: ESG investing will halt investment in defense stocks. The Middle East is calming. The shock: Biden engaging with Taiwan. Kamala saying Assad needs to go. The trade: Defense stocks vs Russia and Saudi. The confirmation:
3/ The trend: state run markets. The misconception: the government will flex its muscles to benefit cloud, internet, and social media more than the genome sector. The shock: Moderna and Pfizer solving a $5 trillion+ problem with gene editing. The trade: ARKG vs ARKW. The chart:
4/ The trend: collapse in US soft power, business friendly dynamics. The misconception: capital will stay in the US instead of moving internationally. The shock: RCEP signed without the US - free trade zone in Southeast Asia. The trade: long Singapore (EWS) short R2K. Chart:
5/ The trend: obscene monetary debasement/fiscal expansion. The misconception: gold is the best expression. EM central banks have $ to buy more gold. The shock: electric vehicles driving nickel shortage. AstraZ failure = bad for EM. The trade: long Nickel hedged with gold.
6/ The trend: politicization of central banking. The misconceptions: central banks can endlessly absorb 30 year issuance. central banks can't buy whatever bonds they want. The shock: stimulus checks & green ECB statement. The trade: green short term debt vs US long term debt.
7/ The trend: true monetary unification of the Euro. The misconception: the Germans will profit from the ECB's climate shift and effective bailouts of the peripherals. The shock: massive peripheral debt purchases, discussion of Jubilee. The trade: Spain & Portugal vs Germany
8/ All trades have fundamentals, data, and a constant stream of news flow I can monitor 24/7. Most are in very liquid markets so I can get out fast. I'm constantly looking to be wrong. Soros said at his Google lecture that his most prized ability was changing his mind quickly.
9/ I'll leave you with George Soros' own words of the 8 parts of a boom bust process. Good luck trading.

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महर्षि कश्यप की तेरह पत्नियां थीं।लेकिन विनता व कद्रु नामक अपनी दो पत्नियों से उन्हे विशेष लगाव था।एक दिन महर्षि आनन्दभाव में बैठे थे कि तभी वे दोनों उनके समीप आकर उनके पैर दबाने लगी।


प्रसन्न होकर महर्षि कश्यप बोले,"मुझे तुम दोनों से विशेष लगाव है, इसलिए यदि तुम्हारी कोई विशेष इच्छा हो तो मुझे बताओ। मैं उसे अवश्य पूरा करूंगा ।"

कद्रू बोली,"स्वामी! मेरी इच्छा है कि मैं हज़ार पुत्रों की मां बनूंगी।"
विनता बोली,"स्वामी! मुझे केवल एक पुत्र की मां बनना है जो इतना बलवान हो की कद्रू के हज़ार पुत्रों पर भारी पड़े।"
महर्षि बोले,"शीघ्र ही मैं यज्ञ करूंगा और यज्ञ के उपरांत तुम दोनो की इच्छाएं अवश्य पूर्ण होंगी"।


महर्षि ने यज्ञ किया,विनता व कद्रू को आशीर्वाद देकर तपस्या करने चले गए। कुछ काल पश्चात कद्रू ने हज़ार अंडों से काले सर्पों को जन्म दिया व विनता ने एक अंडे से तेजस्वी बालक को जन्म दिया जिसका नाम गरूड़ रखा।जैसे जैसे समय बीता गरुड़ बलवान होता गया और कद्रू के पुत्रों पर भारी पड़ने लगा


परिणामस्वरूप दिन प्रतिदिन कद्रू व विनता के सम्बंधों में कटुता बढ़ती गयी।एकदिन जब दोनो भ्रमण कर रहीं थी तब कद्रू ने दूर खड़े सफेद घोड़े को देख कर कहा,"बता सकती हो विनता!दूर खड़ा वो घोड़ा किस रंग का है?"
विनता बोली,"सफेद रंग का"।
तो कद्रू बोली,"शर्त लगाती हो? इसकी पूँछ तो काली है"।
I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.