1. Bitcoin has surpassed all the bubbles of the last 45 years in extent that includes Gold, Nikkei, dotcom bubble.
What an amazing presentation! Loved how @ravidharamshi77 brilliantly started off with global macros & capital markets, and then gradually migrated to Indian equities, summing up his thesis for a bull market case!
@MadhusudanKela @VQIndia @sameervq
My key learnings: ⬇️⬇️⬇️
Bubble or Bull Market? Join us for a short presentation and candid one on one on 27th Jan, 4pm with Shri \u2066@MadhusudanKela\u2069. \u2066@VQIndia\u2069 \u2066@sameervq\u2069 #bubbleorbullmarket pic.twitter.com/LBvlBrz6mS
— Ravi Dharamshi (@ravidharamshi77) January 24, 2021
1. Bitcoin has surpassed all the bubbles of the last 45 years in extent that includes Gold, Nikkei, dotcom bubble.
US market cap to GDP nearing 200%.
5. Global liquidity injection (~$10T) has been more than 10% of world's GPD (~$85-90T) so far, and counting.
9. Market cap to GDP of 100 presently, compared to 139 in 2007. Corporate profits to GDP at just 2.3%, at the cyclical bottom.
Peak economic cycle ✅
peak earnings growth ✅
Peak valuations ✅
Peak fund raising ✅
Peak leverage ✅
This does NOT seem to be the case now.
Economy is strong✅
Earnings beat expectations for many quarters✅
Media is full of good news✅
People are confident, optimistic & greedy✅
Few defaults✅
Low skepticism✅
Euphoria everywhere✅
Again, this does NOT seem to be the case now.
The economic/ market cycle doesn't turn in just 10 months and so we cannot be at the top of the cycle already.
At best, we are at the skepticism stage of this bull market and lot of wealth should be created in the next 3-5 years.
GOD BLESS INDIA!
More from Tech
Ok, I’ve told this story a few times, but maybe never here. Here we go. 🧵👇
I was about 6. I was in the car with my mother. We were driving a few hours from home to go to Orlando. My parents were letting me audition for a tv show. It would end up being my first job. I was very excited. But, in the meantime we drove and listened to Rush’s show.
There was some sort of trivia question they posed to the audience. I don’t remember what the riddle was, but I remember I knew the answer right away. It was phrased in this way that was somehow just simpler to see from a kid’s perspective. The answer was CAROUSEL. I was elated.
My mother was THRILLED. She insisted that we call Into the show using her “for emergencies only” giant cell phone. It was this phone:
I called in. The phone rang for a while, but someone answered. It was an impatient-sounding dude. The screener. I said I had the trivia answer. He wasn’t charmed, I could hear him rolling his eyes. He asked me what it was. I told him. “Please hold.”
Wish I had the audio of Rush Limbaugh telling me off on the phone on his show when I was six. In the meantime, RIP.
— Shannon Woodward (@shannonwoodward) February 17, 2021
I was about 6. I was in the car with my mother. We were driving a few hours from home to go to Orlando. My parents were letting me audition for a tv show. It would end up being my first job. I was very excited. But, in the meantime we drove and listened to Rush’s show.
There was some sort of trivia question they posed to the audience. I don’t remember what the riddle was, but I remember I knew the answer right away. It was phrased in this way that was somehow just simpler to see from a kid’s perspective. The answer was CAROUSEL. I was elated.
My mother was THRILLED. She insisted that we call Into the show using her “for emergencies only” giant cell phone. It was this phone:
I called in. The phone rang for a while, but someone answered. It was an impatient-sounding dude. The screener. I said I had the trivia answer. He wasn’t charmed, I could hear him rolling his eyes. He asked me what it was. I told him. “Please hold.”
