Lots of discussion on media coverage of BIG BETS this week. They’re click-bait-y. Novel. Maybe there’s some envy or schadenfreude at play. But that’s not the real issue. The problem is how operators control media coverage.
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I don’t find big bets nearly as problematic as, say, coverage of someone hitting a 12-leg parlay, but the reason we are inundated with this type of coverage is the same: the operators are deciding what is newsworthy and what isn’t.
The issue is pretty fundamental. Most sports betting media entities exist only because of operators. They are literally paid by operators. That’s how the affiliate model works. Would we be ok if a newspaper covering the Trump White House were funded by the administration?
We’d expect some bias, wouldn’t we? As a result, the sports betting media is mainly a marketing arm for operators right now. Journalists have relationships with operators, who feed them information they want published. Operators understand the accessibility bias & exploit it.
Back to that 12-leg parlay. Operators *love* the 12-leg parlay because their theoretical hold multiplies as the number of legs on the parlay increases. Do operators want to see parlay success stories covered? YES!
How often do you see stories in the newspaper about people winning the lottery? Not often. And when you do, it’s more likely than not about the calamities that have befallen said lottery winner since their big score.
State lotteries would love to see media coverage of someone winning $20,000 from a $5 scratch-off ticket at their local 7-Eleven. But media outlets don’t get a referral fee when Joe Reader plays the lottery.
I don’t think every sports betting writer is a lapdog for operators. This is a bigger issue. It’s systemic. It’s structural. It’s a problem of incentives & power. And I don’t know the solution. But I would encourage sports betting media to try a different angle & see what sticks
There is an appetite for something different. The popularity of @capjack2000's parlay math tweet thread is strong evidence of that. Give us, the consumers, the chance to read something that doesn’t make us feel used.

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A THREAD ON @SarangSood

Decoded his way of analysis/logics for everyone to easily understand.

Have covered:
1. Analysis of volatility, how to foresee/signs.
2. Workbook
3. When to sell options
4. Diff category of days
5. How movement of option prices tell us what will happen

1. Keeps following volatility super closely.

Makes 7-8 different strategies to give him a sense of what's going on.

Whichever gives highest profit he trades in.


2. Theta falls when market moves.
Falls where market is headed towards not on our original position.


3. If you're an options seller then sell only when volatility is dropping, there is a high probability of you making the right trade and getting profit as a result

He believes in a market operator, if market mover sells volatility Sarang Sir joins him.


4. Theta decay vs Fall in vega

Sell when Vega is falling rather than for theta decay. You won't be trapped and higher probability of making profit.