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Yesterday, the CDC released new guidelines for schools. Clear, science-based guidance was long overdue, so everyone was agog all week.

Did they get what they wanted? This is a long 🧵, buckle in.

 Before I dive in: I have no agenda here. I am not anti-kids, anti-schools or anti-teachers. The only thing I am is anti-virus. I follow the science, but despite what both sides insist, the science is not straightforward, or we wouldn't have this much division and dissent.
So, back to the CDC guidelines: Pro-opening advocates hoped for a sensible read of the evidence and teachers unions for strict precautions and vaccinations. Did they get what they want? Short answer: No.
There is no issue that is more divisive right now (ok, masks and vaccines). But kids of all colors are suffering, and the long-term loss of education and emotional toll might be devastating. OTOH: the rates in the US might be dropping but objectively they are still very high.
Schools should be the last to close and first to reopen, but many communities have not done that and probably will never. Those communities have not "budgeted" for schools by closing bars and restaurants. In fact, many are now reopening closed businesses before schools.
The CDC, as might be expected from a federal agency, took a conservative middle path. It said elementary schools can be open always. But when transmission is high, they go hybrid and middle and high schools should be fully remote.
Sounds reasonable given what we know of greater risk to high school students (very likely) and middle school students (maybe) compared to kids under 10. But pro-opening advocates are not happy because what CDC considers high transmission is way too low.
In fact, @CDCDirector said yesterday that 90% of school districts would fall into the high transmission category right now. Many schools have been operating at these levels without a problem -- but if they are taking all precautions (ie, masking, distancing hand-washing etc)
Some scientists have pointed out that in-school transmission is a better metric than community transmission because schools can control the environment and make it safer than the community at large. And that is an excellent point.
BUT: and it's a big but. We can only know what in-school transmission is if schools do regular testing -- not just diagnostic testing of symptomatic people, but screening for asymptomatic ones, or surveillance of the school population as a whole.
The problem, it seems to me, is that the schools that don't take precautions and need testing are also the ones least likely to implement testing unless someone forces them to -- which is highly unlikely. So... perhaps this is CDC's way of guiding *them*?
Some scientists have said the CDC should at least make it clear that for schools that are doing testing, the bar should be different -- again, another excellent point. Testing, done with good tests and regularly, can track in-school transmission well.
The CDC guidelines also said physical distancing is only required at high transmission -- another point of contention. Pro-opening advocates would say it's unnecessary at all levels, some teachers unions say 6 feet is minimum required.
What we know is that indoors, with poor ventilation, 6 feet is not much better than 3. But with good masking, both are doable. The CDC buried all talk of ventilation -- and my hunch is that they did so because they didn't want talk of HVAC systems etc to stop schools from opening
Some teachers unions are not happy about the no-distancing requirement at lower transmission or about the CDC saying vaccinating teachers should not be a prerequisite for reopening. Some insist everyone be vaccinated first -- which will not happen by fall.
A point about unions: Some are tough and are asking for things that will be impossible to fulfill, even with low transmission, even in the fall. And that is not helping the ugly fights over school re-openings.
OTOH, talking about teachers and unions as "evil" is also ridiculous. *Nothing* about the school debate is so straightforward. I've spoken to many, many teachers over the past weeks who are heartbroken about being painted as lazy and horrible people.
Some teachers are talking about permanently leaving the profession over this, when we need *more* teachers, not less. And not all unions are bad, just as not all people who want schools to open want it for sensible, logical reasons.
Full disclosure: Most NYT reporters are also represented by a guild that has our back. So on this I absolutely see both sides and I don't think it helps any of us to demonize either side. Neither side is malicious, neither is stupid.
As a parent of an anxious middle-schooler and a hypersocial elementary schooler, I *desperately* want schools to open. But as a science journalist, I genuinely believe there are no straightforward one-size-fits-all answers here.
With community transmission at the levels it still is, and with so many schools not following precautions, there cannot be a low bar for reopening. And yet, it's not fair to the many schools that have done very well to have to close.
If you came here looking for simple takeaways, I'm sorry. I'm no apologist for the CDC, as those of you who have followed me for a while know. But I sympathize with the agency's plight in this case. And I am heartsick over the ugly fighting between the two camps. That is all.

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Brief thread to debunk the repeated claims we hear about transmission not happening 'within school walls', infection in school children being 'a reflection of infection from the community', and 'primary school children less likely to get infected and contribute to transmission'.

I've heard a lot of scientists claim these three - including most recently the chief advisor to the CDC, where the claim that most transmission doesn't happen within the walls of schools. There is strong evidence to rebut this claim. Let's look at


Let's look at the trends of infection in different age groups in England first- as reported by the ONS. Being a random survey of infection in the community, this doesn't suffer from the biases of symptom-based testing, particularly important in children who are often asymptomatic

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1. The infection rates among primary & secondary school children closely follow school openings, closures & levels of attendance. E.g. We see a dip in infections following Oct half-term, followed by a rise after school reopening.


We see steep drops in both primary & secondary school groups after end of term (18th December), but these drops plateau out in primary school children, where attendance has been >20% after re-opening in January (by contrast with 2ndary schools where this is ~5%).
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V selective interest

They were and are revolted by SF glorifying murder but dont know or care about the deaths of catholics here. As I’ve seen the apathy to the life my parents lived, and the fear I grew up with, I always make it understood I’m Irish but from the north. Because it’s important

Showing absolutely no interest in the murder of the people in the areas SF are elected to represent is really selectively deciding whose lives you think are worth anything. I doubt anyone south of Louth Monaghan or Cavan could tell you or care about the Reavey brothers

There was and is no hand wringing about children being shot in the fields by soldiers in front of their parents or hunted down in their own house and killed in front of their families- where were the marches, the songs, the movements?

“But Sinn Fein said this”- is of zero comfort to victims of state or loyalist violence and you are actually framing their loved ones murders in such a way that you’re almost making them partially culpable for their own fate or excusing it somehow when it’s nothing to do with SF
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