BC SOCIETY
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

1/A LOT of critically important charts in this week's #DirtyDozen.

I cover growing trend fragility, a monthly sell signal, discuss why this *isn't* a major top buy why we should expect a 1-2 month correction to begin w/in the next few weeks, plus more.

https://t.co/qd6Old7Ehi

 2/ High euphoria = high trend fragility

-Record net 19% FMS investors raking greater risk

-FMS cash level at 3.9% triggering a 'sell signal'

-Global Risk-Love in 97th %-tile going back to 1987

-Asia/EM Risk-Love signaling "euphoria" for 1st time since 2015
3/ “Two-month flows into DM and EM equity funds the highest since [Oct 2000]. November alone saw the highest monthly inflow into global equity funds on record. Also over a three-month horizon, we’ve now seen the highest inflows into equity funds on record” via BofA $EEM
4/ Asia ex-Japan Risk-Love indicator’s Euphoria / Bearish Signal implies weak 6-month forward returns in Asia/EM.
5/ $IYT triggered a sell signal in Jan.

Dec's Doji (yellow) gave us a sell setup. Jan's Outside Bear Bar closed on its lows & gave us a sell signal. But, the strong bullish thrust of the preceding 8 bars means this pullback will likely be bought after a 1-2m pullback.
6/ But, investors who continue to try and call a top will once again be disappointed…

The economic backdrop is not one you want to fade. 92% BofA’s proprietary suite of growth indicators “are flagging a Bullish/Neutral signal, the highest level on record.”
7/ BofA writes “The last 3 decades have not witnessed this combination of animal spirits and a system flush with liquidity. All regions across the world are, at present, privy to surplus free liquidity — currently growing at 55% YoY in the US (highest on record since 1980.”
8/ While the long-term economic backdrop looks increasingly bullish, the short-term has been widely discounted and is at increased risk of a washout.

Bloomberg points out that money managers are more long commodities now than they have ever been in at least a decade.
9/ The rebounding economy and wall of liquidity plus declining COVID hospitalizations (largely driven by increasing vaccination numbers) here in the US definitely support the reflation narrative.
10/ However, the same cannot be said for the rest of the world. The WSJ quotes a recent UBS report, saying “At the current rates of vaccination, only about 10% of the world would be inoculated by the end of the year and 21% by the close of 2022.”
11/ The US’s greater capacity for fiscal combined w/ its inordinate access to vaccines, means it’s likely to outperform the RoW on the growth front. That superior relative growth performance could upset the extremely crowded short USD positioning via USD smile dynamics.
12/ While I remain a cyclical USD bear, I do believe there’s a decent probability we’re about to see a multi-month counter-trend move. USDSEK’s monthly chart looks ripe for a reversal.

https://t.co/VqTXZ78Zdr
fin/ $XBI has reversed its multi-year bout of relative underperformance versus $QQQ. Bios have some of the strongest long-term charts at the moment. Illumina (ILMN) is one of these names with a great tape. Last month, the stock broke out of a 2 ½ year consolidation range.

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Noah Smith
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@Noahpinion
Remember: Just because an idea is old doesn't mean it's good.

Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.

Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.

Then again, when underlying conditions don't change much, tried-and-true approaches are probably better.

"Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model...

(end)
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UN Watch
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@UNWatch
The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.

View the resolutions and voting results here:

The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.

Israel and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr


The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.

Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab


The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF


The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW
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Matthew
Matthew
@Matthew94091812
COVID Masks: Mechanistic View: Part 2: Fine Aerosol Emissions:

Masks may increase fine aerosol emissions from: 1) nebulization of large droplets into fine aerosols, or 2) friability of certain mask materials creating "aerosolized fomites."

Please share:

Here are the studies:

The question is whether facemasks are actually a source for viral aerosols by:

1) Masks get saturated by large "respiratory droplets" containing viral molecules. Air turbulence against trapped droplets may create aerosols that eventually diffuse around edges. Continued...

Trapped droplets potentially get pushed through the filter media of the mask, getting nebulized into aerosols.

Particles don't always stay in the mask:

Study: Ha'eri 1980

Title: The efficacy of standard surgical face masks: an investigation using "tracer particles"

Albumin tracer particles put inside a surgical mask were dispersed into the room by breathing.

Viral molecules can get airborne from air turbulence.

Study: Liu 2020
Title: Aerodynamic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in two Wuhan hospitals.
SARS-2-COV sub-micrometer aerosols not tightly bound to surfaces, get airborne when PPE is taken off.
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BlackCalvinist
BlackCalvinist
@BlackCalvinist
LOL at the uptick in followers.

Fair Warning: I believe that Cultural American Patriotic Churchianity (CAPC for short - aka White Evangelicalism/Christian Nationalism) has caused more damage to the body of Christ and the credibility of the church than CRT ever has or will.

It's been a systemic problem since the founding of the country (indeed, before the founding of the country) and has contributed to the church being complicit in chattel slavery, Jim Crow, cointelpro, redlining and a host of other things the Bible condemns as sin.

The conflation of Christianity with Americanism since the founding of the country has left too many actual believers confusing love of country and culture with biblical Christianity (thus, in their minds, to fight against conservative political culture is also to fight against

what they think is biblical Christianity). It's part of what makes it okay to minimize the sins of men like Dabney while extolling his ability as a theologian in other areas, or minimizing it as him being 'a man of his time'. It also allows you to have an atheist speak at your

Christian conference while condemning your brother who holds different political views than you, but professes the same faith you do.

On the other side of the issue, the phrase 'black lives matter' is true because of the Imago Dei. Debate your momma about it if you disagree.
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Marshall Steinbaum \U0001f525
Marshall Steinbaum 🔥...
@Econ_Marshall
My wonderful @jainfamilyinst colleagues @laura_bmw & @Edi_Nilaj have released their new report "Student Debt and Young America," which pretty comprehensively demolishes many of the myths about who does and doesn't have student debt.
https://t.co/y02KFosRQ3
Highlights to follow
/1

@laura_bmw @Edi_Nilaj First of all, look at this one chart that tells you why the student debt crisis is happening: rising debt; stagnant income, and the gap has opened widest for minority borrowers.
/2


You look at that chart and you see the total failure of the human capital model to explain labor market outcomes, insofar as it even is a falsifiable social science hypothesis.
/3

Second, while it's true that total loan balances are increasing in income, student debt has increased most over time among the lowest-income groups. This tells you that student debt is becoming a marker of the disadvantaged rather than the advantaged.
/4


Third, balances on outstanding loans are rising over time, not declining. As I said in my last report, the student debt crisis is a crisis of non-repayment. This is why it's foolish to think the student debt is ever going to be paid back, whether it's cancelled now or not.
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THE BATTLE OF SARAIGHAT (1671)

Lachit Borphukan's humiliation of Aurangzeb.

The battle of Saraighat was a naval engagement fought on the Brahmaputra river near Saraighat between the M0ghul empire and Ahom kingdom in 1671.

Guts, resolve and glory!

(Elaborate thread)


Koch was a state situated between the dominions of M0ghuls and Ahoms. For Ahoms, it was a buffer state for keeping M0ghul territorial expansions at bay.(1)

Times changed when the ruler of the Koch kingdom, Nara Narayana passed away in 1587 resulting in Koch being divided into 2. Western Koch was ruled by his son Lakshmi Narayan and the eastern Koch by his nephew, Raghudev.(2)

Lakshmi Narayan formed an alliance with M0ghuls after which he attacked Parikshit, son of Raghudev, in 1602. Parikshit Narayan was defeated while his brother Bali Narayan took refuge in the Ahom Kingdom.(3)

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make products.

"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."

Make Products.

"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."

MAKE PRODUCTS.

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There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.

You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.

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asif
asif
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Thread

Post partition, every morning a weak old woman would board the Model Town bus service headed to the city. The conductor never asked her for money or he would invite anger of the last Queen of Punjab.

1/n


Princess Bamba Sutherland, the eldest daughter of Maharaja Duleep Singh and grand-daughter of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, was born on Sep 29, 1869, in London.

Duleep Singh, the last Maharaja of Punjab was taken away to England by British after annexing Punjab.

2/n


Since he was still a child he was forcibly converted to Christianity and made to adopt British values in order to prevent him from ever thinking about regaining Punjab.

He was also kept away from his mother Maharani Jindan.
When he finally met his mother years later...

3/n

...he was told about his lost kingdom and religion after which he decided to reclaim it from British treachery.
During his struggle he married and had six children, 3 sons & 3 daughters from the 1st marriage.

Bamba was the most colorful character among 6 and was a rebel...
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...like her father and daring like her Grandfather Ranjit Singh. She married Col Sutherland who later became principal of King Edward Medical College.

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The best way to know if people like your product is NOT:

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The best way to know if they're actually pay for it.

The only thing that matters is your product providing a value, and you can't know this until people will pay money for it.

We can have a first signal of a product/market fit after the launch by check how many sales we've got in the first 24h. Some scale:

200+ This has a high potential.
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50+: Some people need it.
10+: People almost don't need it.
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