Shopify is a $1T (5.5x) company in the next 10 yrs if any combo of the below work in its favor:

1/ Ecomm penetration continues to grow
2/ Global churn increase/US DTC model becomes viable
3/ Brand discovery (key!)
4/ Larger cut of each transaction

A thread:

1/ Doesn't require much explanation - the more things people buy online, the more $ Shopify makes. 2 things in Shop's favor here:
Can Shopify make ppl buy more things? *Did I really need that 5th pair of Allbirds?*
What other retail categories will move more online?
2/ *Heinz going DTC seems silly and doesnt move the needle for them rn, but why can't every small restaurant order their condiments DTC in the future? *DTC of wholesale makes a ton of sense.*

Ecom goes way beyond DTC (Shopify's current bread & butter)-Shopify can, and should...
3/ start to take on the Squarespaces, Wix, Weebly's of the world. If you monetize online, Shopify should be your first stop.

Not to mention, overtime, Shopify will eat traditional competitors at the top (Oracle/SAP) and similar competitors will die out (Woo, Big, ect ect)
4/ High churn is a good thing for Shopify (ht @benthompson) The more people trying and failing on Shopify, also increase the probability of a major winner. Marginal costs of failures < marginal gains of big winners.

Globally, Shopify needs to reduce the pain of failure.
5/ Shopify can reduce pain through making it super easy to set up a Shop/finance initial POs/make upfront costs ~$0. Globally, tho, pain of failure comes from economic development and safety nets that encourage entrepreneurship.
6/ Domestically:
a) Business model needs to become more viable
b) We need to start to see some real winners
7a/ Will get into this more later -- but DTC, for vast majority, is either a labor of love / or shitty business...because the economics simply don't work for the amount of work it requires. Running a $10M biz w 5 ppl is a tough life. Running a $10M biz with 30 isnt possible.
8b) For DTCs at scale, we need to start to see good some outcomes - rising tides lifts all boats. This will encourage more entrepreneurship from more serious people. Would be great to see a company like @Allbirds become a public, lasting brand that sits right btw Nike & Lulu.
9) Shopify needs to work on brand discovery/marketing tools. Shop App was a first good step, but this needs to be a full funnel effort... to start:

1. Shop/FB need to play nicer/better. Two companies are highly dependent on each other for growth...pls fix IG browser!
10/ 2. Shop needs to get discounts across all ad platforms. Snap give 10% off to Shop merchants or we'll take our biz to FB, ect ect.

3. Build better native ESPs/SMS/CDPs

4. Give people a reason to use Shop App beyond...consolidated tracking #s...
11/ Conservatively, Shopify brands spend 30% of NR across prospecting platforms and retention tools. Shopify needs to start dipping in here -- oppty is in hundreds of billions. Shopify knows this...and I'm sure we'll see alot of innovation on this front.
12/ Shopify needs to take a larger cut of each transaction and lower total fees for merchants.

a) Processing fees
b) Fulfillment fees
c) Shipping fees
13/ Hey, we all love @stripe, and its so cute how nicely Shopify and Stripe play together. I often daydream of Tobi & the Collisons talking strategy...but Shopify needs to start taking a cut of that sweet, sweet transaction tax.
14/ Shop Pay is great for many reasons...but if the team can figure out how to circumvent the 2.9%+$0.30 paid to Stripe/card providers, then thats the big win. Not a payments genius, but feel like ACH could be facilitated through Shop Pay pretty elegantly w much lower fees
15/ I go back and forth on the Fulfillment/Shipping play for Shopify. Should they fully vertical integrate (ie Amazon), be merely the software layer (seems to be current strat), or just negotiate bulk discounts with 3PLs and take vig on every transaction. IDK!
16/ Other tools - lending, banking, financing, payroll, data & analytics, corp cards, B2B payments, the list goes on and on. They do some of these currently, but I should be able to run my entire Shopify business in Shopify (esp. in early stages --> eventually at SMB/enterprise)
17/ The opportunity for Shopify is huge here. Currently about 10% of Amazon market cap, with tailwinds in its favor.

Or of course, every DTC company loses its shirt in the next 3-5 yrs, and the Shopify promises gets washed away with it.
Two more thoughts:

1) Shop App needs its Prime wedge. What would make me go directly to the Shop App to buy a black tshirt?

2) Subscribe to https://t.co/EbggzbZ2Jt, not for me, not for @packyM, but for baby Dev so that one day he won’t have to shill online for a living.

You May Also Like

@franciscodeasis https://t.co/OuQaBRFPu7
Unfortunately the "This work includes the identification of viral sequences in bat samples, and has resulted in the isolation of three bat SARS-related coronaviruses that are now used as reagents to test therapeutics and vaccines." were BEFORE the


chimeric infectious clone grants were there.https://t.co/DAArwFkz6v is in 2017, Rs4231.
https://t.co/UgXygDjYbW is in 2016, RsSHC014 and RsWIV16.
https://t.co/krO69CsJ94 is in 2013, RsWIV1. notice that this is before the beginning of the project

starting in 2016. Also remember that they told about only 3 isolates/live viruses. RsSHC014 is a live infectious clone that is just as alive as those other "Isolates".

P.D. somehow is able to use funds that he have yet recieved yet, and send results and sequences from late 2019 back in time into 2015,2013 and 2016!

https://t.co/4wC7k1Lh54 Ref 3: Why ALL your pangolin samples were PCR negative? to avoid deep sequencing and accidentally reveal Paguma Larvata and Oryctolagus Cuniculus?
Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel was previously CEO of bioMerieux in France from 07-10.

Alain Merieux, who owns bioMerieux, was instrumental in the creation of the Wuhan Institute of Virology P4 Lab.

The same people who helped create the virus, also helped to create the vaccines...


Moderna partnered with French Pasteur Institute in 2015 to develop mRNA vaccine technology.

Pasteur Institute partnered with the Wuhan P4 Laboratory in 2017 along with the Merieux Foundation to study emerging viruses...
https://t.co/yFsHwrNYaK
https://t.co/9M5lydBKhM


Nobel prize winning scientist Luc Montagnier asserts that Sars-Cov-2 is man-made and originated from the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Montagnier did extensive work with the Pasteur Institute in France which was partnered with the Wuhan P4.

Merieux Foundation & the Chinese government have worked together since 1965, and partnered to study emerging pathogens in Africa in 2015.

Their research included "PATHOGENS CARRIED BY BATS" that provoke respiratory diseases.

🚨🚨🚨
https://t.co/gVwpT0ssqI
#ஆதித்தியஹ்ருதயம் ஸ்தோத்திரம்
இது சூரிய குலத்தில் உதித்த இராமபிரானுக்கு தமிழ் முனிவர் அகத்தியர் உபதேசித்ததாக வால்மீகி இராமாயணத்தில் வருகிறது. ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயத்தைத் தினமும் ஓதினால் பெரும் பயன் பெறலாம் என மகான்களும் ஞானிகளும் காலம் காலமாகக் கூறி வருகின்றனர். ராம-ராவண யுத்தத்தை


தேவர்களுடன் சேர்ந்து பார்க்க வந்திருந்த அகத்தியர், அப்போது போரினால் களைத்து, கவலையுடன் காணப்பட்ட ராமபிரானை அணுகி, மனிதர்களிலேயே சிறந்தவனான ராமா போரில் எந்த மந்திரத்தைப் பாராயணம் செய்தால் எல்லா பகைவர்களையும் வெல்ல முடியுமோ அந்த ரகசிய மந்திரத்தை, வேதத்தில் சொல்லப்பட்டுள்ளதை உனக்கு

நான் உபதேசிக்கிறேன், கேள் என்று கூறி உபதேசித்தார். முதல் இரு சுலோகங்கள் சூழ்நிலையை விவரிக்கின்றன. மூன்றாவது சுலோகம் அகத்தியர் இராமபிரானை விளித்துக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது. நான்காவது சுலோகம் முதல் முப்பதாம் சுலோகம் வரை ஆதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்னும் நூல். முப்பத்தி ஒன்றாம் சுலோகம்

இந்தத் துதியால் மகிழ்ந்த சூரியன் இராமனை வாழ்த்துவதைக் கூறுவதாக அமைந்திருக்கிறது.
ஐந்தாவது ஸ்லோகம்:
ஸர்வ மங்கள் மாங்கல்யம் ஸர்வ பாப ப்ரநாசனம்
சிந்தா சோக ப்ரசமனம் ஆயுர் வர்த்தனம் உத்தமம்
பொருள்: இந்த அதித்ய ஹ்ருதயம் என்ற துதி மங்களங்களில் சிறந்தது, பாவங்களையும் கவலைகளையும்


குழப்பங்களையும் நீக்குவது, வாழ்நாளை நீட்டிப்பது, மிகவும் சிறந்தது. இதயத்தில் வசிக்கும் பகவானுடைய அனுக்ரகத்தை அளிப்பதாகும்.
முழு ஸ்லோக லிங்க் பொருளுடன் இங்கே உள்ளது
https://t.co/Q3qm1TfPmk
சூரியன் உலக இயக்கத்திற்கு மிக முக்கியமானவர். சூரிய சக்தியால்தான் ஜீவராசிகள், பயிர்கள்