With a lot of coverage of the latest dramatic Scottish poll results, it's time to remind everyone that predicting results in individual seats or seat totals (and overall majorities or lack thereof) is MUCH harder than predicting national shares of the vote.

This is REALLY IMPORTANT when people will be holding forth on the supposed certainty or otherwise of a single-party majority, or of a single-party whitewash in a particular region, and perhaps encouraging people to change their votes in light of this supposed certainty.

Let's assume you could go to the start of 2016 with the vote shares from the election, Biff Tannen from Back to the Future style. You are far ahead of any pollster - you know the *exact* national vote totals. What would they have told you would be the result in terms of MSPs?

Well, they'd have said it was going to be an SNP majority. Plug it in and you would have seen SNP 66, Con 30, Lab 23, Grn 5, LD 4. Close, but off in that one key detail. And remember, this is assuming you actually had the correct national numbers rather than just poll estimates.

Why? Basically, all the seat predictors out there for Holyrood have a big simplifcation. They assume all parties' shares of votes will change by equally in all constituencies. If the SNP are up 1% nationally they increase that vote by 1% everywhere and work out the new 'winner'.

11 January 2020 #MAGAanalysis #Overturn

Information, Disinformation, And Overwhelm

In these weeks since the election, I feel like I've begun to come to understand the world of intelligence officers and analysts a great deal more than ever before.

Since the election what have we seen happen?

*HCQ is suddenly "safe" and quietly being reinserted back into literature for fighting the virus cheaply.

*The media suddenly cares about NY Covid victims and Cuomo's role in their death.

*The Lincoln Project have been exposed.

Evangelicals, America, and their utter disgrace (Cracks Knuckles) A THREAD.

Now that Evangelicals have lost their most important political figure since, well Ronald Reagan (we may dispute on this but I'm going with Reagan) What Now? How should we write about them?

First off, let me state the obvious. Evangelicals supported a white supremacist president because they support White Supremacy. The theologies and practices are racist, and while you may say not all evangelicals are racists.....

I spent a year writing about about Evangelical Racism from the 19th to the 20th century. Let me assure you, this is not the History that NOLL, MARSDEN, KIDD or any of the rest of the old guard who created that history wanted to admit.,

Evangelicals have started the long tap dance to try to dance away from Donald Trump, their lord and Savior. Yep. Exhibit A, David Brooks article in the NYT yesterday

Thread – Election Fraud Denial and Course of Action

1. There was massive election fraud during the election. You know it, I know it, and everyone with a functional brain knows it – even those in the Democrat-media complex who want to wish it away & usher in the Biden Dark Ages.

2. There was an excellent article at American Thinker yesterday that examined possible reasons why an intelligent observer would opt for the cover-up of election fraud if it did take

3. Here are the reasons listed:

3A. Reason 1: The election fraud–denier wanted President Trump to be removed from the Oval Office.

3B. Reason 2: The election fraud denier-wanted a Democrat to be elected as the president.

3C. Reason 3: The election fraud–denier was afraid of violence that investigation of election fraud may lead to.

3D. Reason 4: The election fraud–denier wants to be "pragmatic" — that is, to accept whatever happened and go along with whatever comes out of it.

3E. Reason 5: The election-fraud denier was concerned that any serious investigation of election fraud might erode public trust in our elections.

(TRUE STORY) In the weeks before the 2020 election, ex-Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne was desperately trying to get to me through an intermediary to share info about the coming election he claimed was critical.

I ignored his overtures.

Donald Trump invited him to the Oval Office.

I had messages from Byrne's rep on every social media platform I'm reachable on. I decided that his public instability was such that I wanted nothing to do with him. Incredible to think that the President of the United States—the most powerful man alive—made a different decision.

MORE/

NOTE/ What's telling about this—and what U.S. media might wonder about, now—is whether Byrne was contacting me to tell the same tale he told the president in the Oval. Seems unlikely, right? Seems like maybe Byrne is just peddling nonsense wherever he thinks he can get attention?

NOTE2/ Here's what I can tell everyone (and media): Byrne represented—via his rep—he'd been in touch with Roger Stone, and wanted to talk to journalists pre-election about the FBI/Comey. I'm sure I'm not the only one he contacted. After all, we know he contacted the White House.

THREAD📌 Since Jan. 20, 2017, I have been terrorized by the Trump presidency as a lesbian, as a #disabled person, as a journalist. I have reported hundreds of stories of how marginalized groups in particluar have been harmed by Trump's policies, even in his final days.
1/

I have reported on the uptick in poverty under Trump, particularly among women and LGBTQ people. I have written relentlessly about #healthcare and how each year under Trump fewer Americans had access to it and more people were bankrupted and having to crowdfund medical bills.
2/

I have written about violence against POC: the relentlessness of it. The anti-Black animus. The hatred of brown immigrants--even babies. I have reported on the way Trump and his extremist white nationalist cohort have stoked violence from Charlottesville to the Insurrection.
3/

There's been so much to report under Trump, crucial stories get lost, erased by some new Trump-fueled crisis in our country. I'd write about homelessness under Trump or the rise in environmental racism under him or the loss of access to elder care--all erased by new headlines.
4/

It's been hard to be an in independent left journalist under Trump, esp since the pandemic. Trump has made America monomaniacal: We can only focus on one or two stories at a time. Do folks think #gunviolence or #climatechange are over? They are both more terrible, not less.
5/

In the days after Ravi Zacharias died, I started collecting screenshots of those praising his life and ministry. It consumed hours of my time. I knew that the time of this great reveal on his corruption and abuse was coming. I wanted to make sure that the receipts were there.

I tried to give them away to a couple other people, but it wasn’t the time. I’m going to try to make a long thread of them since those who supported RZ should be held accountable and not just quietly get to delete their supportive tweets without acknowledging the abuse of RZ.

I don’t relish this task, because the harm that RZ caused and the shielding he received from people in high places of the Evangelical world chills me to the bone. It triggers me to no end. But I’m going to go slowly and add as I have the bandwidth to do so.

Here with Mike Pence

#HoldRaviZachariasAccountable

Kayleigh McEnany

#HoldRaviZachariasAccountable

KERALA POLITICS and BJP's Role.

For those who are interested in Kerala politics, specifically BJP's stance and chances, I am transcribing a Youtube Q&A with @surendranbjp BJP president, Kerala.

A vibrant and savvy politician, KS is the leader Kerala BJP supporters asked for.

He is an extremely sharp strategist who leads from the front - someone who sees the dance from the balcony and also perfects nuances on the floor.

This interview reflects his acumen, clarity of thoughts and candid approach to politics. A no-nonsense leader, he says a lot.

1. How is BJP aligning with RSS in Kerala?

BJP and RSS relationship is that of ideology and political outfit (I have discussed this in detail in a previous thread and KS's view supports my points) and is strong currently.

Covid relief work has brought us even closer.

2. Accusation is that BJP does Hindu politics. But UDF (INC+++) has Ms League (IUML) and Kerala Congress (Xs) - in touch with their spiritual leaders - both INC and LDF do this.

But BJP doesn't do this. Why?

BJP does not need to do this as Kerala Hindus perceive BJP as their own, and at the moment we are basing on the Hindu support.

But we are open to minority support as well. Hindu movement is stronger, not sure how far UDF have understood this.

🔴🔴🔴🔴 Mitch McConnell received donations from Dominion Voting Systems and shut down two election integrity bills in 2020.

The Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), is urging Senate Republicans to accept the Biden electors without objection when they are presented to

Congress on January 6. On that day, one member of the House and one member of the Senate may object in writing to the electors presented. This year, there are numerous reasons for every single member to object, but they are being pressured to accept the fraud, no matter what.

McConnell wants Republicans to blindly go along with the process, even though the votes were illegally certified by states in the face of mounting, coordinated election fraud. The 2020 election was attacked like never before and now it is being contested in front of the state

legislatures. Hopefully, these testimonies and hard evidence will be heard before the Supreme Court, including the cases where power-drunk Democrats circumvented the state legislatures and changed election rules and where the Democrats illegally blocked Republican poll watchers.

If America is truly a Constitutional Republic, as established by the founders, then the 2020 election requires that the rule of law be applied to every incidence of coordinated election fraud. There is more than enough evidence to withdraw the Biden electors, and the courts and

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate.
Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He leads in Florida, 47 to

In an analysis of interviews conducted yesterday, including in Arizona (where a poll is ongoing), there was modest evidence of a shift in Joe Biden's direction after Trump's COVID diagnosis. That said, one day of interviews is not nearly enough to reach any firm conclusions

The shift, though, would be material if confirmed and it was statistically significant, controlling for the demographic and political variables used in weighting. That said, it's still just one day of interviews. We'll have to wait and see here.

Of the two results, the biggest surprise was probably Florida, where we found Biden+5 with a R+4 sample. This is a fully updated voter file that reflects some meaningful GOP registration gains in the states.

It's just a subsample, so big MoEs here, but we found no evidence of the big Trump gains among Hispanic voters in Florida or in Miami-Dade County. Biden even narrowly led a (very small) sample of Cuban voters; they were R 47-28 by registration. Again, small samples but...

President elect Joe Biden, please do not appoint any members of EDGE, the John Brockman nonprofit that laundered Jeffrey Epstein’s money and reputation, to positions in the new administration. No associates or allies of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell in public office.

One name already out there. It’s breaking our hearts.

Everyone calm down. While we don’t know why witnesses weren’t called, we know that the Democrats didn’t “cave.” They’re not hapless idiots. They’re savvy fighters, and they must have had a damn good reason for this. Stop blindly attacking them and let this play out.

For insurance, the DC Attorney General let it be known last night that he’s looking to criminally charge Trump for the insurrection. That’s infinitely more important than impeachment. Perhaps he asked the Democrats not to screw up his prosecution by calling his witnesses.

It’s also possible that one or more of the witnesses changed their story, and therefore it would have backfired.

There are all kinds of plausible explanations for what just happened. “Democrats stupidly caved” is NOT one of them, because these Democrats are NOT stupid or cavers.

We really, really, really need to learn to avoid jumping straight into the “all hope is lost” and “Democrats just stupidly caved” routines. Neither of those things ever ends up being true. When we fatalistically yell that stuff, WE are the ones (unwittingly) causing harm.

We deserve answers as to what happened today, but we’ll get them soon enough.

I warned you from day one not to let the media suck you into the fictional notion that the impeachment trial was crucial, and that he’s “getting away with it all” if he’s not convicted in it.

"Multiple European security officials told Insider that President Donald Trump appeared to have tacit support among US federal agencies responsible for securing the Capitol complex in Wednesday's coup

"Today I am briefing my government that we believe with a reasonable level of certainty that Donald Trump attempted a coup that failed when the system did not buckle." - NATO Intelligence official

Yikes on bikes.

"The French police official said they believed that an investigation would find that someone interfered with the deployment of additional federal law-enforcement officials on the perimeter of the Capitol complex...

"...the official has direct knowledge of the proper procedures for security of the facility."

We know that:

1) Sund told Representatives that he had requested additional National Guard back-up. That did not happen.
2) National Guard was deployed for "traffic control" at...

...the Capitol perimeter. Though this was a fairly small number of Guard troops, none were deployed to help inside the perimeter.
3) Additional Guard support was delayed by Sec. of Army Ryan McCarthy, Sec. Def. Christopher Collins, and allegedly by Trump himself for 90 minutes.

(Sorry, long, rambling, unthought-out thread here) I've lost count of the amount of times I have been proud to call myself an Unioner, and of their commitment to direct, and often local action instead of parrotting nebulous and often ultimately meaningless phrases.

I know personally people at the club who take very seriously their commitment to eradicating racism from the club, as well as from football itself. But I have seen and heard racism in the stands, as well as on the way to and from games too many times before.

I have always shied away from acknowledging it. I've accentuated the positives, I've said it comes only from a small minority (which is also true), all because I don't want my own romantic image of the club to be tarnished, and I don't want to be guilty through association.

Or, to be honest, to endanger my privileged position of being able to write about the club I adore in the city I love.

When it happens it is a reflection of a broader racism in Germany, and in football, but that is no excuse for my inaction, for my sitting on my hands and hoping the problem goes away, so I can just go back to hailing them as a rebellious club from a rebellious city.

hey pals - logging in to remind you that you really should vote. and i GET IT, mailing things is hard/weird bc many of us don't ever have to do it. if you're in the nj/nyc area, u can buy stamps at duane reade/cvs/staples/many bodegas

i used to get kids to fill out voter registration forms at concerts back when i was in college - even back then the biggest roadblock was 1. *remembering* to mail it and 2. having a stamp and envelope and knowing where to put it. don't be embarrassed if you don't know - pls ask!

here's a nice list of states and the weird (sometimes lack) of info on how much postage is required (in nj, postage isn't required!)

this reminds me of when i had a former boyfriend go to the post office to get us a book of stamps so we can mail the rent check and he came back with a book of **1 cent stamps**, bless that man for he is now a father of two and today i accidentally dressed as parappa the rapper

Thread:

10/24/2018 Request for Information on the Dominion Voting system:

https://t.co/NCSMkKnoME

https://t.co/Od5IZ3fECG

Table of Contents

Background 3.1
• Election Managmnt System: Global Election Management System (“GEMS”)
• In Person Voting Machines: AccuVote R6 and AccuVote TsX (“DREs”)
• Precinct Scanners & Tabulators: AccuVote-OS
• Statewide Electronic Pollbook System: ExpressPoll 4000 and ExpressPoll 5000

"During absentee in person voting, voters are able to vote in any early voting location in their county. Georgia would like to keep this option for early voting in any new system. On election day, voters must vote at their assigned precinct."

Equ. rights 14th amendment violaton?

3.2 Statistics
Polling Places: Approximately 2,365
DREs: Approximately 27,000
Precinct Scanners & Tabulators: Approximately 800
Registered Voters: Approximately 6,700,000 (92% Active Status; 8% Inactive Status)
Ballots Cast in November 2016 General Election: 4,165,405

Fighting Ourselves When We Should Be Fighting Them

In support of Jimi Agbaje during the 2015 elections, I produced 2 jingles as my contribution. I wanted him to win.

So, through the assistance of a friend of mine who is a PDP stalwart, we were directed to handover the CDs to a PDP Chieftain in Lagos. The PDP Chieftain asked us to meet him at a club house around Palmgrove. It was a Sunday evening.

When we arrived, we passed through security checks. The club house was guarded by mobile policemen. On entering, the PDP Chieftain was seated with company. Right opposite him was a friend with company also. All of them were having drinks.

They were the only people in the club house-apart from the stewards- and my friend and I. The club house was shut to others and we could only come in because our names had been dropped with the mobile policemen who were on guard. Music blared from speakers in the club house.

We were invited to have drinks. We respectfully declined. No be wetin we come do be that. I handed over the two CDs. The first CD was played. It was a dance-along, sing-along, gyrate kind of jingle. The friend of the PDP Chieftain jumped up and started dancing.