BC POLITICS
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

In regards to the #CapitolCoup, I’m in a unique position. I monitored forums ahead of time and then was present for the coup itself.

These are my observations based on what I saw and the evidence that’s been collected so far. I reserve the right to adjust my analysis as needed.

 Let’s talk about the organization of the coup first. Seeing some people insist that the coup must have been highly planned and coordinated.

Yes and no. This was a #StochasticCoup. We’ll see little evidence of direct communication between Trump and the insurrectionists.
Within the insurrectionists, there was not one group that executed the storming of the Capitol.

Rather, there were a number of smaller groups working independently towards the same goal. I expect you’ll see little evidence that these various groups communicated with each other.
What you will see is detailed planning and coordination within these small groups.

Then there were the joyriders, those Trump supporters who weren’t directly involved in any plotting but who were more than happy to go along for the ride once the coup was in motion.
After four years, the insurrectionists were carefully attuned to Trump’s messaging.

Every tweet and statement of his was treated as marching orders and carefully dissected for meaning.

It’s why shutting down Trump’s Twitter account was so important.
Here are additional screenshots of Trump supporters interpreting Trump’s “Wild Protest” tweets.

This is stochastic terrorism in action.
And it wasn’t just Trump who was stochastically priming Trump supporters for violence on 1/6.

There were a number of “spicy memes” that served to reinforce Trump’s messaging.
Not to mention this.

They weren’t exactly being subtle.
Another example of stochastic priming. Have a good laugh about the crazy Antifa conspiracy theories, then listen at about the two minute mark for some detailed instructions on how best to infiltrate the Capitol.

https://t.co/EaLimm9SEW
You can see how Trump was able to incite an insurrection without ever directly communicating with the coup plotters.

I think there may have been one or two exceptions to this which I’ll go into later.
Now, how well-planned was this coup?

There doesn’t seem to have been a plan. Rather, there were a series of competing plans, notions, and ideas.

The first one was the idea of a siege. Surround Congress and don’t let them leave until they’ve certified Trump as the winner.
If you’re an intelligence analyst, btw, the letter to the Folger Library should’ve been a huge red flag that the insurrectionists were serious about their plan.

No one takes time out of their busy day to write an apology letter to the Folger Shakespeare Library just for funsies.
The second idea or notion was straight up storming the Capitol.
The third was this idea of triggering a Civil War, so that even if the coup plot failed, it would unleash a series of events that would lead to the extermination of the Communists (anyone who opposes Trump is a Commie) and the certification of Trump as the election winner.
There was also this near fixation on the tunnels of DC and making sure members of Congress were prevented from escaping.

Note the last screenshot also makes a request that anyone who works at the Capitol leave a gate open on 1/6.
Finally, there was the idea of a citizens arrest or hanging for any treasonous members of Congress who refused to certify Trump as the winner of the election.
You might have noticed some gaps in these plans.

Believing in conspiracy theories forces you to accept logic gaps, which likely led to the coup plotters not being able to spot the gaping holes in their plans to get Trump certified as the winner.

And remember, that was the goal.
Interestingly, some of the other Trump supporters in these forums noticed the shoddy planning.
A few other screenshots of interest.

One is a breakdown, by the insurrectionists themselves, of some of the factions that would be present at the Trump rally.

The other is an attempt to outline a coherent plan to force Trump to be certified the election winner.
I’m going to take a break, then look at how these plans, ideas, and notions were or were not carried through on 1/6.

One huge disclaimer: These sorts of plans were all over the MAGA-verse.

We have no idea if the individuals quoted here took any part in the actual coup attempt.

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Trump has only been out of office and, therefore, no longer (purportedly) immunized from criminal prosecution for ~1 month. Also, because of R delay, Garland is still awaiting confirmation. Once Garland is AG, expect a thorough



2. investigation of Trump for inciting insurrection in violation of 18 U.S.C. 2383, together with other federal crimes. Once that investigation is completed, based on the information that is currently public, there is a good chance that Trump will be prosecuted for violating

3. 18 U.S.C. 2383, together with other federal crimes. Not absolutely guaranteed. But a very good chance. The only element of inciting insurrection that is open to credible dispute is Trump’s intent. Is there sufficient evidence that he intended his speech to incite imminent

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2/ The "blogosphere" was an outgrowth of MySpace and LiveJournal, inasmuch as in the heady early days of the internet people suddenly realized that they could engage in private diaristic writing—a very specific subgenre of writing—in the public square, and it was suddenly "okay."

3/ So the blogosphere as such had *nothing* to do with journalism, which needless to say was in a different state just 15 years ago (note: unlike Drezner, I also teach writing and journalism at the university level, so this thread is squarely "in my area," unlike his Post piece).

4/ The blogosphere was a manifestation of the transformation of the public-private binary at the dawn of the internet—and *also* connected to the "creative writing" explosion (what I did a PhD on); in the aughts, creative writing was the fastest-growing discipline *in the world*.
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