Category A represents those States/UT where INC remains either No1 or No2 as per vote share in 2019 elections (Primary Party); Category B refers States/UT where INC is not No1 or No2 but has/can have partner
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Caution: Thread
Unsolicited advice to INC & Oppo. Parties
I had done an analysis of performance of non-BJP parties, particularly INC in 2019 LS elections to look for lessons for 2024. I focused on INC as it occupies no2 position in our polity despite its dwindling profile
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Category A represents those States/UT where INC remains either No1 or No2 as per vote share in 2019 elections (Primary Party); Category B refers States/UT where INC is not No1 or No2 but has/can have partner
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As we know, BJP won 303 seats (NDA at 355) (incl. SS-18). INC won 52 (UPA at 92). Other Parties won 96 seats
Category-wise breakup of 52 seats given in Table:
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Please be noted 245 includes TL(17), JH(14) and ND(7) where INC was no2 but I am doubtful if it will be so if elections are held now
Breakup of 245 below👇
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Pl note INC strongholds(!) are distributed across country but with very little heft+
10 States/UT with 298 seats (55%) fall in Category B and C
Breakup as follows :+
Only 5 States (Big 5)-UP,MH,WB,BH,TN- contribute 249 seats (48%) to LS of 543 seats👇+
INC won only 11 seats in Big 5; and 8 came from TN alone; UPA won 43 seats in Big 5 of which 30 seats were from its allies +
Of these 159 seats, INC could win only 9 seats in 2019 LS elections; BJP's % vote share exceeded INC's by 10% in 10 of these States/UTs
All these States/UT fall in Category A!
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1 INC's Principal enemy remains BJP as INC is in direct conflict with BJP in all Category A States (where INC is no1 or no2)
2 Looking at INC's lukewarm presence in Category B or C States/UT, INC shd not fritter its energies there+
4 Non-BJP, non-INC parties hv to then take on BJP/NDA in the Big 5 and also in States of AP+TL all adding to 291 seats+
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7 New entities have to incorporated into UPA - SS? TRS? YSRC? TDP? TMC? BJD? SP?
8 If above has to fructify, UPA's leadership cannot vest with INC any longer +
10 Is that all enough to take on the BJP? Absolutely NO
11 These parties have to then develop a comprehensive political narrative and campaign to take on BJP in 2024 +
14 Hopefully, both DMK&TMC win in 2021 elections; that wd be big push for this plan
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