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Ryan Struyk
@ryanstruyk 5 years, 7 months ago 540 views

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Here's what I'm watching in exit polls tonight (1/thread):

White voters without a college degree:

This group propelled Trump to the presidency in 2016, but now, Biden hopes to narrow the gap. Trump won them by 31 points in Michigan, 32 points in Pennsylvania and 28 points in Wisconsin. Trump needs to try to hold those margins again.

Seniors:

Trump won voters over 65 years old by 7 points in 2016, but amid a pandemic that is disproportionately killing older Americans, Biden may win them back in key states like Florida. Plus, Trump won White seniors by 19 points. Can Biden break even?

White women:

Pre-election polls suggest Trump is losing ground with this group, but he needs to stop the bleeding to have a fighting chance. A gaping gender gap could be fatal to Trump's reelection bid. Trump won White women by 9 points in 2016.

Black and Latino voters, especially men:

Trump has been pushing to make inroads with Black and Latino men, where even a small shift could help make up losses with other groups. Hillary Clinton won Black men by 69 points and Latino men by 31 points in 2016.

Independent voters:

Independent voters haven't given either candidate a double-digit advantage in more than 30 years. Could Biden break the streak? Trump narrowly won independent voters by 4 points in 2016, and he'll need to keep things close with this group to win again.

White voters with a college degree:

One of the big surprises of 2016 came when White voters with a college degree backed Trump by 3 points. Polls suggest they will likely go for Biden in 2020, but Biden needs to run up the score, especially among college-educated women.

Trump-to-Biden voters and former third party voters:

How many former Trump voters can Biden convince to cross party lines? In a tight race, even picking off 5-10% of them could make a difference. Plus, almost 6% of voters went third party in 2016. Where will they fall now?

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@PatrickByrne

READ AND RETWEET AS THOUGH THE LIFE OF YOUR NATION DEPENDS ON IT. WHICH IT DOES. Citizens, I am going to add to the picture with more information. I am not going to let this pass while keeping information to myself. I am going to walk you through 2 narratives.

A printing shop in Michigan prints ballots for Delaware County, Pennsylvania and as Lancashire County, Pennsylvania (this is normal). But along with the ballots it prints on contract and delivers to those counties, it prints some ballots that get diverted to Bethpage, New York.

There, a boiler room of folks fill in "Biden" (often without even voting downballot). The ballots (which are forensically legitimate, given that they come from the same print shop as the good ballots, ) then get trucked into Pennsylvania and mailed. Hundreds of thousands.

We have all of that documented. Texts, statements, affidavits, everything.

We also know that this same ballot printing company (and other firms in the same family) also print for Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia.

Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart

1) FL absentees, early voting:

*Dems as expected ("souls to the polls Sunday") had a good day and FINALLY take the early walk-in vote lead by 6,100 votes.

Rs total: 1,151,593
Ds total: 1,092,547

Rs +59,046 combined lead. This is very good for this point in the campaign.

2) At this point in 2016, Rs only led by 40,000. I could be mistaken but I think yesterday was the last day polls were open on Sunday, so the final "souls to the polls" Sunday.

3) As of yesterday, four red counties were yet to report. That would likely boost the lead back to 70k

4) I don't think the FL Rs in their wildest dreams expected to lead this late in the campaign.

5) Likewise in NV:
Clark (with its union "encouragement" for members turned out big yesterday and added net 6,000 voters.

However---big however---neither Washoe nor the rurals . . .

(5) contd. . . were open yesterday. My guesstimate is that would slice that number in half.

While this helped, the NV Ds are still looking at a significant--to potentially massive--shortfall from their 2016 numbers coming out of early voting.

6) Gotta make sure you compare days to days. Calendars and voting days differ.

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Noah Smith
@Noahpinion

1/Politics thread time.

To me, the most important aspect of the 2018 midterms wasn't even about partisan control, but about democracy and voting rights. That's the real battle.

2/The good news: It's now an issue that everyone's talking about, and that everyone cares about.

3/More good news: Florida's proposition to give felons voting rights won. But it didn't just win - it won with substantial support from Republican voters.

That suggests there is still SOME grassroots support for democracy that transcends

4/Yet more good news: Michigan made it easier to vote. Again, by plebiscite, showing broad support for voting rights as an

5/OK, now the bad news.

We seem to have accepted electoral dysfunction in Florida as a permanent thing. The 2000 election has never really

Bad ballot design led to a lot of undervotes for Bill Nelson in Broward Co., possibly even enough to cost him his Senate seat. They do appear to be real undervotes, though, instead of tabulation errors. He doesn't really seem to have a path to victory. https://t.co/utUhY2KTaR
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 16, 2018

$Rachel "The Doc" Bitecofer \U0001f4c8\U0001f52d\U0001f34c$

Rachel "The Doc" Bitec...
@RachelBitecofer

1. "They're leaving! They're leaving!"" yell seditionist as they watch House members fleeing the floor through the glass doors the only thing (+ some under-armed officers + office furniture" that protected our elected REPs (same ballot as Trump, each & everyone

@McConnellPress

2. of them felt so inclined towards martyrdom and/or possessed the weapons (Jesus, what if they'd has a grenade & guess what, in America, yes, you can come up w functional equivalents of that bc barring people from them is a betrayal of freedom so great we must simply acquiesce

3. their eventual death tolls. One functional "freedom grenade" down that hallway, tossed w ease through a hole in the glass door, could have easily hit anyone fleeing.Unless it was Mo Brooks, MTG, or one of their well-known crazy boosters, here's a thing @LeaderMcConnell ought

4. to reflect upon as he makes his CRITCAL pivot decision, which he could rally 17 people & start a fight for control of the party that rest of the country will help him with,EVEN AFTER ALL THE SHIT HE'S DONE TO PEOPLE, YES, THE REST OF THE COUNTRY WOULD HELP HIM IF HE WAS TO

5. RALLY 17 SENATORS FOR IMPEACHMENT, he'd find his whole 🌎awakened. And Mitch, as far as I understand it, you could do it anonymously!! How much would THAT fuck w them?? How great would it be, for the 1st time in 5 yrs, to be the one w power- you LOVE power! Think of the FUN!

Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson

(THREAD) The main problem with that @DanDrezner piece in the Post is that it's an international politics prof writing about the field in which I'm a professor—communications. No one in communications would *ever* compare the blogosphere to either Twitter or Substack. Here's why.

1/ Back in the mid-aughts, I was a Koufax Award-nominated political blogger (I don't know what Drezner was doing then; I first heard of him about a year ago). So I was into the blogosphere pretty deep, as I also ran a second high-traffic blog that was focused on the art world.

2/ The "blogosphere" was an outgrowth of MySpace and LiveJournal, inasmuch as in the heady early days of the internet people suddenly realized that they could engage in private diaristic writing—a very specific subgenre of writing—in the public square, and it was suddenly "okay."

3/ So the blogosphere as such had *nothing* to do with journalism, which needless to say was in a different state just 15 years ago (note: unlike Drezner, I also teach writing and journalism at the university level, so this thread is squarely "in my area," unlike his Post piece).

4/ The blogosphere was a manifestation of the transformation of the public-private binary at the dawn of the internet—and *also* connected to the "creative writing" explosion (what I did a PhD on); in the aughts, creative writing was the fastest-growing discipline *in the world*.

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#DoYouKnow -The place where
Lalitha Sahasranamam -1000 names of Devi originated.

It is in Lalithambigai temple -Thirumeeyachur,Near Mayiladuthurai,TN

There is a Legend #story & it is related to this beautiful #sculpture of Kshetrapuraneswarar & Ambal Lalithambigai #Thread 👇

#Legend #story
It is believed that this is birth place of Kashyapa Maharishi’s sons, Arunan& Garudan. Arunan(charioteer of Surya)was physically handicapped.He was a Shiva devotee.Arunan wanted to visit Kailash to have Shiva Darshan,but Surya Dev denied permission.

So Arunan disguised as a girl & was on his way to Kailash.On the way Surya Dev saw this girl & outraged her modesty.Shiva was very angry with Suryan for misbehaviour & cursed him to get darkened. Whole world plunged into darkness.Surya Dev pleaded to Bhagwan Shiv to forgive him.

Shiva Bhagwan asked him to go to Thirumiyachur & worship him there. As advised, Surya Dev performed rigorous penance, placed murthi of Shiva& Parvathy on an elephant & took them to the clouds.Shiva in this temple is known as Meganathaswamy,Devi is known as Lalithambigai

Even after severe penance,Shiva does appear,so Surya Dev cries out in agony.Disturbed by his call, Parvathy protests.Siva pacifies her & offers relief to Surya Dev.The sculpture of Shiva pacifying Ambal shows her sullen from one angle &smiling from another.

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Magudeswarar Temple, Kodumudi
#Erode
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Situated on the banks of the river Kaveri, Magudeswarar Temple is one among Paadal Petra Shiva Sthalam. Kshetram is famous Parihara Sthala for Naga Dosham and for performing Tarpanam to the departed souls.

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Sthala Puranam says that once Adisesha and Vayu Deva placed Meru parvat at the centre to decide who is stronger among them. Parvatam was held tightly by Adisesha and Vayu blew the wind to push Parvatham.

In this struggle, peak of meru parvatham broke into 7 pieces and fell in different places as precious gems. Diamond fell at Kodumudi as Magudeswarar. Panchamirtham abhishekam is very famous here. Vanni tree situated here is very old which contains medicinal values.

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who take a bath in the river Kaveri and worship paramashiva and mahavishnu, will be cured of diseases and will get relief from all illness.

Om Namah Shivaye
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David Rothkopf
@djrothkopf

Trump on climate: I don't believe it. Trump on Khashoggi: I don't believe it. Trump on Russia: I don't believe it. Idiocy? A canny game? Doesn't really matter as much as the underlying intellectual autocracy. In this administration only one opinion matters.

It's an assault on facts and reason. It's an assault on good governance. It's an assault on the bureaucracies that are being discounted. It's an assault on science and history. But it is also an assault on one of the underpinnings of democracy.

We live in a system that is grounded on the idea of collaborative government. Leaders may have a final word but even then, there are typically checks and balances. Hopefully, in this case, such checks and balances may work. But they also are being tested.

The president's position that he is smarter than all the world's scientists, than the entire intelligence community, than experts who have studied any issue all their lives, is, of course, asinine. But his belief that government turns solely on his opinion, is monarchic.

Louis XIV reportedly said, "L'etat est moi." That he was the state. Trump asserting that he knows better than all, discounts all advice, that his brain is enough to chart the course for America alone, is essentially saying the same thing.