should probably identify some things that I feel are plausible risks right now
i dont have any idea how large these risks are
going to focus on first order risks because most of them have tons of knock-on effects
I mean... all my friends who prepared for a global pandemic and were stockpiling masks in February are freaking out about this Trump ban thing so it seems safe to ignore them since they are never right about anything.
— PoliMath (@politicalmath) January 10, 2021
country is a tinderbox after Wednesday
trump getting media purged is very bad for the medium to long term but i am personally most worried about the next month
i have more trust in the bulk of the senate and the biden admin to keep their heads. anything with the court is a tail risk. house members seem relatively powerless in practice.
1. the business establishment is acting independently and forcefully to exert political pressure for stability. this is potentially destabilizing in the longer term but predominantly helpful in the short term
. . . eventually
i am genuinely grateful for mcconnell and pence holding the offices they do
More from Legal
Let me explain what is wrong with that analogy . . . . .
To clarify -- my disagreement is not with those who are pointing out that law enforcement didn't respond with the same level of force and arrests at the capitol as it did during BLM protests.
That comparison deserves to be drawn and it raises some very important questions.
My disagreement is with those who are saying that what happened at the Capitol yesterday is so similar to what happened during protests this summer, that people's reactions ought to be similar--a suggestion that those reacting more strongly now are hypocritical.
Here's one example of someone (a law professor) making the argument. But I've seen it plastered across the site all day, it keeps cropping up in my mentions, and so I want to respond.
Very different reaction then. But kudos to those who\u2019ve consistently condemned riots. I hope, if nothing else, today\u2019s violence means we are all on the same page now. https://t.co/JhWadB80So
— Andy Grewal (@AndyGrewal) January 7, 2021
There are a number of things that distinguish what happened at the Capitol from what happened during BLM protests. The most obvious is the reason that people protested---some protested about factually false claims about election fraud; others about real police shootings.
Prosecutors alleged Barnett was carrying a stun gun. He's charged with entering a restricted area w/ a weapon, violent entry/disorderly conduct, and theft. There isn't anything on the docket indicating what the govt/Barnett will be seeking as far as detention v. release
We're still waiting for the Richard Barnett detention hearing to start in Arkansas. Meanwhile, follow @o_ema for updates on initial appearances in DC federal court today for a few of the Capitol insurrection arrestees -->
Listening in on more hearings: The 1st is Kevin Loftus, WI, arrested for participating in the riots at the Capitol, charged w Class A misdemeanor. Judge decreed he is released on the condition that he does not return to DC, doesn't drink or do drugs, and doesn't break any laws.
— Ema O'Connor (@o_ema) January 15, 2021
Richard Barnett's detention hearing is underway in Arkansas — Judge Erin Wiedemann will decide if Barnett should stay behind bars. The first witness is FBI special agent Jonathan Willett, who was involved in the Capitol riot investigation
FBI agent walks the judge through surveillance videos that the agent says show Barnett walking in and out of Nancy Pelosi's office, with a "walking stick Taser" on his hip, as well as the widely disseminated photos of Barnett sitting in Pelosi's chair with his feet up
https://t.co/UU2lUxD7Hd
https://t.co/UU2lUxD7Hd
In both cases there is a failure to use good judgement, make a valid threat assessment, to match in force to situation, failure to choose to wait for safer and appropriate staff/conditions and to use their time wisely. They also treat 'perp' as more object than human.
https://t.co/qoCofP6Rdt
By the way... Rochester is near Buffalo - where this happened...
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He's STILL in charge of the Mueller investigation.
He's STILL refusing to hand over the McCabe memos.
He's STILL holding up the declassification of the #SpyGate documents & their release to the public.
I love a good cover story.......
The guy had a face-to-face with El Grande Trumpo himself on Air Force One just 2 days ago. Inside just about the most secure SCIF in the world.
And Trump came out of AF1 and gave ol' Rod a big thumbs up!
And so we're right back to 'that dirty rat Rosenstein!' 2 days later.
At this point it's clear some members of Congress are either in on this and helping the cover story or they haven't got a clue and are out in the cold.
Note the conflicting stories about 'Rosenstein cancelled meeting with Congress on Oct 11!"
First, rumors surfaced of a scheduled meeting on Oct. 11 between Rosenstein & members of Congress, and Rosenstein just cancelled it.
Rep. Andy Biggs and Rep. Matt Gaetz say DAG Rod Rosenstein cancelled an Oct. 11 appearance before the judiciary and oversight committees. They are now calling for a subpoena. pic.twitter.com/TknVHKjXtd
— Ivan Pentchoukov \U0001f1fa\U0001f1f8 (@IvanPentchoukov) October 10, 2018