1/Alright, gather round, friends, and let me tell you the story of 1930s Japan, and how it's a cautionary tale for 2020s

2/Everyone knows that Japan became militarist, fascist, and (even more) expansionist in the 30s.

But what few people know is that this followed 6 years of coup attempts by EVEN MORE militarist/fascist/expansionist lunatics.

So let's review that history.
3/The first coup attempt was the March Incident in 1931.

Basically, some right-wing army officers planned to stage a riot to provoke martial law, and install a military dictator.

It failed when they couldn't get enough people to riot.
4/The coup plotters weren't really punished, so they just tried again a few months later. Some of their co-conspirators ratted them out and they failed again.

But AGAIN THEY WEREN'T PUNISHED! People defended them, saying they were simply too patriotic. 🤡
5/These coup plotters wanted the following:

1. A military dictator
2. Aggressive military action against Japan's rivals (i.e. every other country)
3. Increased colonial expansionism
4. Some mumbo-jumbo about cultural purity and economic egalitarianism
6/Anyway, a year later, some different coup plotters tried again. This time their plan involved lots of assassinations. They successfully assassinated the Prime Minister, but failed to kill the visiting Charlie Chaplin (which they hoped would provoke a war with the U.S.
7/But despite killing Japan's elected leader, the coup plotters received only light punishment!!

There was an outpouring of popular support on their behalf. They thus received only a short stint in jail...which of course encouraged further coup attempts.
8/Anyway then there was another coup attempt a couple years later that never got off the ground, but of course no one was punished.
9/But finally, in 1936, the big one came.

A large number of junior army officers, with troops to back them, and sympathies from some generals, launched a huge insurrection aimed at assassinating senior politicians and seizing control of government buildings.
10/Some generals sympathized with the insurrectionists, but the Emperor and a critical mass of loyalists opposed them. Eventually they were arrested.

This time -- FINALLY -- the government meted out harsh punishments, executing 17 of the plotters and imprisoning others.
11/But now here's the thing. The Japanese government went on to do pretty much exactly what the coup plotters wanted!

They put the military in charge of the country! They tried to colonize all of Asia! And they started a war with the U.S.!

Oops.
12/So what can we learn from Japan's failures in the 1930s?

Fortunately, the coup attempt of 1/6/2020 didn't come from within the military. Nor does Trump support or fascism in general come from the military. So that's one positive difference.
13/Another positive difference is that the U.S. does not currently have a tradition of "government by assassination", as Japan did then. In the 60s we did, but assassinations are thankfully rare now.
14/BUT, there are some disturbing similarities between 1930s Japan's crazies and the right-wingers who stormed the Capitol on 1/6.
15/The first big lesson from the failures of 1930s Japan is:

PUNISH THE PLOTTERS HARSHLY THE FIRST TIME.

Don't wait for the coup attempts to escalate! Don't call the coup plotters "patriots"! Don't let them off with a slap on the wrist!
16/The second big lesson is:

DON'T GIVE IN TO THE COUP PLOTTERS' IDEOLOGY.

Japan basically became what the rightists wanted. We musn't do that.
17/Remember, a slap on the wrist will just encourage the same assholes to be bolder the next time.

The first of Japan's many coups was even less impressive than what we saw on 1/6!

Because it wasn't punished, it encouraged more and more.
18/We're a more stable country than 1930s Japan, with better institutions.

But if we give coup plotters a slap on the wrist, and call them "patriots", we too will go down the path of chaos and fascism.

(end)

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More from We need 3 million vaccinations a day 🐇

"Competitive wokeness", like "virtue signaling" and "preference falsification", seems to be something people on the right say in order to pretend that people on the left don't really believe what they claim to believe.


Basically we have a whole bunch of ways of saying "You can't possibly believe that!!". Which helps us avoid the terrifying fact that yes, people generally do believe it.

Of course, "believe" doesn't mean what it means in econ class. It means that people get a warm feeling from asserting something, even if they don't know what it means. "God is omnipotent", etc.

A lot of times we believe extreme things, simply because asserting those things all together in a group gives us a warm feeling of having an army on our side.

It's not competitive wokeness. It's COOPERATIVE wokeness.

"Virtue signaling" isn't fake or pretend. It's real.

"Virtue", when it comes right down to it, means membership on a team.

Sometimes, to prove you're on a team, it helps to say something people on the other team could never bring themselves to say.
When Republicans started to believe in racial bloc voting - when they stopped believing that nonwhite people could ever be persuaded to vote Republican - they started to see immigration as an invasion.

This explains why immigration is now at the center of partisan conflict.


Of course, the belief in ethnic bloc voting becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

When a slight Dem tilt among Hispanics and Asians caused the GOP to turn against them, Hispanics and Asians shifted more toward the Dems. Etc. etc. A self-reinforcing cycle.

Bush's 2006 amnesty attempt, and the 2013 intra-GOP fight over immigration reform, were two moments when the GOP could have turned back to the approach of Reagan, and courted Hispanics and Asians.

But they decided against this, and...here we are.

What will disrupt this bad equilibrium, and save American politics from being an eternal race war?

Either:
A) More white voters will grow disgusted with the GOP approach and defect, or
B) The GOP will find some non-immigration-related issues to attract more Hispanics and Asians.

As long as both parties see elections in terms of racial bloc voting - where the only way to win is to increase turnout among your own racial blocs or suppress turnout by the other party's racial blocs - American politics will not improve, and the country will decline.

(end)
Bloomberg Ideas conference now starting! I will be live-tweeting it. You can watch on our Facebook or Twitter pages (links below)!


Our first panel is about cryptocurrency! We have @matt_levine, @tylercowen, @eiaine, @nirkaissar, and Camilla

Ou: Crypto will be useful for the unbanked.

Cowen: Crypto has to compete against a bunch of other emerging payments technologies. Bitcoin is too inflexible.

Cowen: I'll bet on the payments companies over crypto.
Today's @bopinion post is about how poor countries started catching up to rich ones.

It looks like decolonization just took a few decades to start

Basic econ theory says poor countries should grow faster than rich ones.

But for much of the Industrial Revolution, the opposite happened.
https://t.co/JjjVtWzz5c

Why? Probably because the first countries to discover industrial technologies used them to conquer the others!

But then colonial empires went away. And yet still, for the next 30 years or so, poor countries fell further behind rich ones.
https://t.co/hilDvv0IQV

Why??

Possible reasons:
1. Bad institutions (dictators, communism, autarkic trade regimes)
2. Civil wars
3. Lack of education

But then, starting in the 80s (for China) and the 90s (for India and Indonesia), some of the biggest poor countries got their acts together and started to catch up!


Global inequality began to fall.

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@AdityaTodmal