BC HEALTH
Saved by @jacobhtml

Folks, we need to talk about this Vitamin D trial. I have no stake in this game - take Vitamin D if you want but this pre-print is super sus.

The paper is presented as a randomized trial of vitamin D supplementation in hospitalized patients with COVID. Interesting and important question! And the results appear dramatic:
If true, this would be one of (if not THE most) effective treatments for COVID. But there are problems...
The first clue something is up is that the randomized groups aren't the same size:
It took me a while to figure out why this was, then I saw in the text that INDIVIDUALS were not randomized, WARDS in the hospital were.
OK - 8 wards, 5 randomized to Vitamin D, 3 to usual care. (Why not 4 and 4?? - but whatever). So this is actually a CLUSTER-randomized trial. That means you need to use CLUSTERED statistics to analyze it. They do not.
This is a big problem. But there is more. It seems that, even if the wards were randomized, the PATIENTS weren't randomized to the wards.
In other words, some hospital wards take different patients than others (different risk factors, etc). This is why we see this really weird finding in Table 1:
Baseline vitamin D levels dramatically lower in the "non-treated" group. Why? Preseumaby because different types of people got admitted to the wards than were randomized to usual care.
You'd expect people with low levels of Vitamin D to do worse - that has been shown multiple times - perhaps because higher Vitamin D levels are associated with less comorbidities.
Here's their Kaplan-Meier curve. It doesn't make sense. What do they mean by 'cumulative hazard' of mortality? What units are these? The overall mortality was 10% by their report.
I get frustrated with peer-review too, but this is why it's so important. This is super basic stuff - you don't call your study a randomized trial when it's a cluster randomized trial. And peer-reviewers would 100% have asked them to go back and redo the stats.
The authors could solve this, btw, by releasing a de-identified dataset (including the ward number) for this study. We could analyze it in about an hour at least for topline results using appropriate stats.
And again, is there harm from Vitamin D? Minimal honestly. The harm from promotion of studies like this is tweets like this that try to dissuade people from getting vaccinated and doing other protective measures.
https://t.co/XVmsiajpBr
So please, read skeptically. Pre-prints have been a boon in COVID times but this study is just... not well done. Be aware. (/END)

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Public Health Scholarships

This may help for those considering MS/PhD in Public Health

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purely on the basis that the medical workup was unable to explain my food intolerance. My psych eval only found mild anxiety and depression. 2/

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APL Apollo conducted their earnings con-call today at 2:00 pm

"Vision of capacity of 4 Million Tone till 2025"

@hiddengemsindia @gvkreddi

Here are the key highlights 😀👇

Business Updates:

• Net Working Capital Remains under 10 days which is best in the building material
• Continue expanding rural region.
• Added 15 new distributors.
• Value added products contributed 50-60% of the topline.

Revenue breakup


• EBIDTA Margin Improvement: This was mainly because of cost structarize and better operational

• Working Capital Cycle as per mgmt should remain sustainable

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Improvement in Net Selling Realization:
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Again sharing bank nifty intraday weekly straddle. How to play by selling straddle.
Mostly will work on Monday to Wednesday. Sometimes on Friday.
Why to pay your money to learn this if u can get it here.
U need only practice.
Let’s go.

Say bank nifty future is at 32000.
Sell both 32000 call and put.
Considering current volatile market lest say premium on Monday morning is 350 on both sides.
Sold with 700 points combine premium.
If bank nifty will trade in narrow range say +\- 100 hold it.
If moving 200 points

then exit previous sold straddle. Sell new one. Let’s say BN moved +200
Now sell 32200. If bank nifty will move here within range then u will get profit through theta decay. Follow same procedure for next 150-200 pts move.

This is only for single straddle sell position.

Now in second case sell three straddle. 31900/32000/32100
In case of 100 points move no need to change.
If 200 + then future is 32200.
Exit 31900 and sell 31200 straddle.
If moving another 100 then exit 32000 and sell 32300. Continue same with 100 points move.
If no move then

it will consolidate between 32000-32200 or 32100 to 32300 and u will get theta decay.

This is for normal move. Sudden big move may come anytime. So keep SL in system.
If u r selling at 350-350 then keep SL in system 475 for both legs.
Practice it. No need to attend webinar.
BNF , MPATELOPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTIONSLEARNING