1/Today in @bopinion, I talk about the legacy and career of Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, who is stepping down as the hedge fund's

2/Simons' fund beat the market -- consistently, by huge percentages, after fees.

That's an astonishing accomplishment.

https://t.co/uopG6WutzU
3/How did he do it?

Basically, by being relentlessly smarter and better-managed than the competition.

https://t.co/p6ZTd7POfQ
4/So does Simons' success mean markets are inefficient?

Yes and no.

Obviously yes, since Renaissance could (and can) beat the market. But there are a few key caveats...
5/First of all, RenTech's most eye-popping and consistent returns are in its flagship Medallion Fund.

But most investors can't invest in that fund. It doesn't take your money.

https://t.co/sTXUzl09Lc
6/In fact, the Medallion Fund doesn't even take *its own* money. It makes regular profit distributions, so that the fund's total size remains small -- around $10 billion or so.

https://t.co/bhqE71eSdH
7/This means that the Medallion Fund's famous 39% annualized return (after fees) doesn't compound.

If it did, Medallion would be worth far more than all the rest of the hedge funds in the world combined, by now!
8/So a fund like Medallion isn't really comparable to, say, the return of the S&P. One compounds, the other does not.

Why? Because the market inefficiencies Medallion exploits are limited in size. And thus, Medallion's profit opportunities are limited in size.
9/To address this, Renaissance made a bunch of other funds that do different things than Medallion, and whose strategies scale up more. These have done generally well, but they're no Medallion...

https://t.co/ZsXQ4NNUI8
10/Even as Medallion racked up huge gains in 2020, Renaissance's other funds largely tanked.

This shows that consistently beating the market AT SCALE is incredibly hard, even for the smartest and best-managed people on the planet.

https://t.co/oowJd3k8GH
11/That's no knock against Renaissance, of course. They're the best in the biz.

But it does mean that Renaissance's existence doesn't prove that stock markets are inefficient. Indeed it shows us just how not-so-hugely-inefficient they are!

(end)

https://t.co/uopG6WutzU

More from Noahtogolpe 🐇

When Republicans started to believe in racial bloc voting - when they stopped believing that nonwhite people could ever be persuaded to vote Republican - they started to see immigration as an invasion.

This explains why immigration is now at the center of partisan conflict.


Of course, the belief in ethnic bloc voting becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

When a slight Dem tilt among Hispanics and Asians caused the GOP to turn against them, Hispanics and Asians shifted more toward the Dems. Etc. etc. A self-reinforcing cycle.

Bush's 2006 amnesty attempt, and the 2013 intra-GOP fight over immigration reform, were two moments when the GOP could have turned back to the approach of Reagan, and courted Hispanics and Asians.

But they decided against this, and...here we are.

What will disrupt this bad equilibrium, and save American politics from being an eternal race war?

Either:
A) More white voters will grow disgusted with the GOP approach and defect, or
B) The GOP will find some non-immigration-related issues to attract more Hispanics and Asians.

As long as both parties see elections in terms of racial bloc voting - where the only way to win is to increase turnout among your own racial blocs or suppress turnout by the other party's racial blocs - American politics will not improve, and the country will decline.

(end)
1/Lots of tech companies and workers are making noises about leaving San Francisco, LA, NYC, and other "superstar" cities.

Some are predicting a shift to remote work and distributed companies.

Let's take a hard look at what that would actually

2/We're all familiar with the trend of tech companies and other knowledge industries (finance, biotech, etc.) piling into a few tech hubs, raising rents and house prices.

Now some think the advent of Zoom, Slack, etc. might reverse this trend.

https://t.co/nQVCJrKvrB


3/But escaping the superstar cities is going to be tough.

The forces keeping tech companies in places like SF are so strong that these regions have essentially become prisons for these companies.


4/In order to escape the prison of the superstar cities, tech companies and other knowledge industries will have to overcome the Four Jailers of Industrial Clustering:

1. In-person office productivity

2. Thick market effects

3. Knowledge spillovers

4. City life amenities

5/I'm actually pretty optimistic that companies can find ways to make remote work productive.

Studies show that working from home *some* of the time actually tends to raise

More from Government

The Government is making the same mistakes as it did in the first wave. Except with knowledge.

A thread.


The Government's strategy at the beginning of the pandemic was to 'cocoon' the vulnerable (e.g. those in care homes). This was a 'herd immunity' strategy. This interview is from


This strategy failed. It is impossible to 'cocoon' the vulnerable, as Covid is passed from younger people to older, more vulnerable people.

We can see this playing out through heatmaps. e.g. these heatmaps from the second


The Government then decided to change its strategy to 'preventing a second wave that overwhelms the NHS'. This was announced on 8 June in Parliament.

This is not the same as 'preventing a second wave'.

https://t.co/DPWiJbCKRm


The Academy of Medical Scientists published a report on 14 July 'Preparing for a Challenging Winter' commissioned by the Chief Scientific Adviser that set out what needed to be done in order to prevent a catastrophe over the winter
Canada is failing to act on Climate Change. @wef @WorldBank @IMFNews @IPCC_CH @UNDPGAIN @AntiCorruptIntl @Pontifex @JustinWelby @OCCRP @StopCorpAbuse @TaxJusticeNet @FairTaxCanada @ecojustice_ca @WCELaw @CanEnvLawAssn @envirodefence @IBA_Canada #cdnpoli


Covid recovery money is going to the oligarchy.

Ottawa and the provinces have put very little on the table to help clean-tech companies directly during Covid 19 while targeting fossil-fuel producers with more than $16 billion in aid.

Coast to coast people have demanded treaties be honored. We demanded climate action, divestment and land back but Canada is not listening. This video shows 10 years of rallies in Waterloo Ontario. City & regional council declared a climate emergency. 🚨

The Bank of China (BOC), SNC-Lavalin and WE Charity were recipients of taxpayer-funded the Covid 19 Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS)

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