1/Today in @bopinion, I talk about the legacy and career of Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, who is stepping down as the hedge fund's

2/Simons' fund beat the market -- consistently, by huge percentages, after fees.

That's an astonishing accomplishment.

https://t.co/uopG6WutzU
3/How did he do it?

Basically, by being relentlessly smarter and better-managed than the competition.

https://t.co/p6ZTd7POfQ
4/So does Simons' success mean markets are inefficient?

Yes and no.

Obviously yes, since Renaissance could (and can) beat the market. But there are a few key caveats...
5/First of all, RenTech's most eye-popping and consistent returns are in its flagship Medallion Fund.

But most investors can't invest in that fund. It doesn't take your money.

https://t.co/sTXUzl09Lc
6/In fact, the Medallion Fund doesn't even take *its own* money. It makes regular profit distributions, so that the fund's total size remains small -- around $10 billion or so.

https://t.co/bhqE71eSdH
7/This means that the Medallion Fund's famous 39% annualized return (after fees) doesn't compound.

If it did, Medallion would be worth far more than all the rest of the hedge funds in the world combined, by now!
8/So a fund like Medallion isn't really comparable to, say, the return of the S&P. One compounds, the other does not.

Why? Because the market inefficiencies Medallion exploits are limited in size. And thus, Medallion's profit opportunities are limited in size.
9/To address this, Renaissance made a bunch of other funds that do different things than Medallion, and whose strategies scale up more. These have done generally well, but they're no Medallion...

https://t.co/ZsXQ4NNUI8
10/Even as Medallion racked up huge gains in 2020, Renaissance's other funds largely tanked.

This shows that consistently beating the market AT SCALE is incredibly hard, even for the smartest and best-managed people on the planet.

https://t.co/oowJd3k8GH
11/That's no knock against Renaissance, of course. They're the best in the biz.

But it does mean that Renaissance's existence doesn't prove that stock markets are inefficient. Indeed it shows us just how not-so-hugely-inefficient they are!

(end)

https://t.co/uopG6WutzU

More from Noahtogolpe 🐇

When Republicans started to believe in racial bloc voting - when they stopped believing that nonwhite people could ever be persuaded to vote Republican - they started to see immigration as an invasion.

This explains why immigration is now at the center of partisan conflict.


Of course, the belief in ethnic bloc voting becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

When a slight Dem tilt among Hispanics and Asians caused the GOP to turn against them, Hispanics and Asians shifted more toward the Dems. Etc. etc. A self-reinforcing cycle.

Bush's 2006 amnesty attempt, and the 2013 intra-GOP fight over immigration reform, were two moments when the GOP could have turned back to the approach of Reagan, and courted Hispanics and Asians.

But they decided against this, and...here we are.

What will disrupt this bad equilibrium, and save American politics from being an eternal race war?

Either:
A) More white voters will grow disgusted with the GOP approach and defect, or
B) The GOP will find some non-immigration-related issues to attract more Hispanics and Asians.

As long as both parties see elections in terms of racial bloc voting - where the only way to win is to increase turnout among your own racial blocs or suppress turnout by the other party's racial blocs - American politics will not improve, and the country will decline.

(end)

More from Government

Labour Grandees are listed in Sir Keir Starmer's colleague Jeffrey Epstein's ''Little Black Book''; Blair, Mandelson and Alastair Campbell. COINCIDENTLY, Keir Starmer and some of the same people have connections to ANOTHER of the worlds most prolific peadophiles. #StarmerOut


Starmer failed to bring charges against Jimmy Savile for paedophilia. The decision was made despite the Crown Prosecution Service receiving substantial evidence of his crimes from witnesses and victims several years before Savile died in 2011. #StarmerOut
https://t.co/PNyX5uSAkw


With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility.
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut

As leader of Islington Council, a post she held from 1982-92, Margaret Hodge was aware of previous, horrendous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #CSA

She was guilty of rather more than a casual failure of oversight. In an open letter to the BBC after it investigated a range of monstrous abuse (child prostitution, torture, alleged murders), Hodge libelled one of its victims as “seriously disturbed”. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut

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