BC GOVERNMENT
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

There were at least two insurrectionist plans that day.

As I’ve written previously, one of the plans was simply to either take Pence hostage or to assassinate him. 1/28

 That was the more extreme plot, and it is an interesting question whether and to what extent Trump, Giuliani, some WH aides, and some nationalist insurrection members of Congress knew of the plan and either facilitated it or condoned it. 2/28
But there was another plan, less violent and extreme, but equally seditious, which we know was supported by a number of extremist members of Congress. It was also the plan that Trump and his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani publicly espoused. 3/28
That plan was simply to ensure somehow, by force or by intimidation, that the certification of the election by Congress failed or fell short on January 6--the constitutionally mandated date for the final and determinative certification of the election. 4/28
The principal target here was VP MIke Pence. Pence had already announced publicly that he would not throw the election in the way that Trump had demanded because he lacked the statutory and constitutional authority to do so (which was, of course, perfectly true). 5/28
But this didn’t stop the mob--or the organizers of the event. Although it would have been unquestionably illegal for Pence to have failed to certify the ballots, radicalized members of Congress (and the mob) wanted to put sufficient pressure on Pence to do it. 6/28
This faction claimed that it was either constitutional or excusable to miss the certification deadline (though it was neither) because the demand was only for an extension of time in order to definitively determine whether the election of Joe Biden was valid. 7/28
Giuliani in his incendiary pre-march speech at the rally specified ten days as the amount of time requested for the extension, though sometimes the amount of time was left rather vague (to be determined): 8/28 https://t.co/CX6iIqPvSw
First of all, it would have supported Trump’s narrative that the election had been “stolen,” because if even this much had been accomplished, it would have served to delegitimize the whole constitutional process. 9/28
His base would have reasoned: if this much can be undermined, what else can be compromised and undermined? They would have thought: the whole charade must be a hoax and the whole system can be beaten, which of course is exactly what Trump was telling them. 10/28
Worse still, missing the deadline would have upended the whole process and created a constitutional crisis. (Fascists and Nazis love this sort of thing. It happened a lot in Europe in the 1930s.) 11/28
If it had been successful, the delay would have left the certification process in limbo, with everything barreling towards Inauguration Day--constitutionally mandated to occur on January 20-- 12/28
with no declared winner. (Only Congress has the power to declare the winner--through the certification process.) 13/28
Here’s he wording of the 20th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which was ratified in 1933: 14/28 https://t.co/zuHcxizAWH
The extension that was demanded by the mob (and by many members of Congress) would have given the insurrectionist Right (aka the Republican Party) plenty of time to gin up even more lies and unsubstantiated claims about a stolen election, 15/28
providing further fuel for the massive armed protests that had been scheduled (and are still scheduled) beginning January 16 through January 20 (Inauguration Day). 16/28
(So far as I know, the insurrectionists were canny enough to never specify a 14 day extension, since that would have made it perfectly clear how the plan was expected to unfold.) 17/28
None of this would have been legal, of course, but that’s not the point. (It’s never the point of a coup!)

The point is that on January 20 Trump would still be sitting in the White House, with no Congressional certification of the election having been completed. 18/28
Squatter’s rights.

Checkmate.

That seems to have been the thinking of most of the insurrectionists. 19/28
Try to imagine the calamitous consequences if the mob had either killed Pence, succeeded in taking him hostage, or if the violent, raucous mob had persuaded enough members of Congress to delay the certification. 20/28
No matter what, it would have spelled the end of America as we know it. The Constitutional order would have been fatally wounded, even if somehowTrump did get removed from office at that point. 21/28
Actually, that is exactly what Trump and his cult have always wanted.

It is a pernicious lie that they want to defend the Constitution. 22/28
They don’t want to defend the Constitution any more than the Confederates who fired on Fort Sumter did.

The insurrectionist right only wants to defend what they call the “original Constitution”--which is *their* Constitution, not ours, and to do it by any means necessary. 23/28
In fact, Trump has been planning since November 8, 2016 to stay in power by any means necessary.

The best way to do that was to win re-election legally.

Failing that, he was determined to stay in power through a coup. 24/28
His core base understood that all along, and they loved it. January 6 just showed it to the world. 25/28
Staying in power has always been Trump’s *sole* agenda--as John Bolton, who had an opportunity to observe Trump closely as his National Security policy adviser, has said. 26/28
For more on this, see Fiona Hill, who has seen Trump’s attempted coup coming for years: 27/28 https://t.co/jBd5fic5od
If you’re really gung-ho interested, there is also this long law review article (131 pages) on how the election is certified. It’s the definitive work on the subject, they say: 28/28 https://t.co/A1hIQZ8iPc

More from Thomas Wood 🌊

Thomas Wood \U0001f30a
Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
It was a foregone conclusion that Trump would lose the TX case, but why did he say “This is the big one?” 1/9


Because the TX case rested on the proposition that a national election can be nullified and “overturned” (a term Trump actually used in a tweet) on the grounds that it does not satisfy conditions determined by the incumbent president 2/9

and the states governed by that president’s political party--
(e..g., no votes by voters receiving mail-in ballots who do not request those ballots shall be deemed legitimate.) 3/9

This litigation was intended to nullify all the votes in all 50 states, and would have called for a new election. It challenged election procedures, not just election results. And it did not require any proof of fraud or undercounts or overcounts. 4/9

In other words, no national election can be legitimate that fails to reelect the incumbent president--in this case of course, Donald J. Trump, the Supreme Leader of the *real* America. 5/9
TRUMP
Thomas Wood \U0001f30a
Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
The most important remaining nomination for Biden to announce is the most important one he will ever make: for Attorney General of the United States. 1/8

If Biden nominates Sally Yates, it will be a pretty clear signal that the D voices who believe that Trump and his enablers must be held accountable for a uniquely lawless presidency have carried the day. 2/8

Since I’m hoping Biden will nominate Yates, it is encouraging that Biden has waited so long to announce his selection for AG. (It is going to come now after the Electoral College formalizes Biden’s election on Monday.) 3/8

(Trump’s outrageous attempt to overturn the 2020 election--“overturn” being a term Trump actually used in a tweet--has probably made it more likely that Biden will take a hard line on all this. He certainly should.) 4/8

If Yates is nominated, the writing will be clearly on the wall for Trump, who in its wake would probably make a deal with Pence involving his resignation some time before inauguration day and a pardon for all his federal crimes. 5/8
BIDEN
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Thomas Wood \U0001f30a
Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
The evidence is mounting that what we witnessed yesterday was an attempted coup (related terms are “insurrection” and “sedition”). 1/10

But it is important to note that the bad actors involved in the events can be sent to jail (for up to twenty years) for something that falls short of an attempted coup and is easier to prove in court: obstruction of justice. 2/10

The relevant federal statute is 18 U.S.C. § 1512--a statute, you might recall, that figures prominently in the Mueller Report. 3/10

Bill Barr, who wanted to construe the statute narrowly, contested Mueller’s interpretation of the statute. There is a lengthy reply to Barr’s construction (which I think might have been written by Michael Dreeben) in the Report. 4/10

The Report establishes conclusively that Barr’s interpretation violates every known principle of statutory construction, and it is fun to read the Report and see Barr get *destroyed* on this point. 5/10
FOR LATER READ
Thomas Wood \U0001f30a
Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
As I have pointed out in a previous posting, many of the rioters found to their dismay and bewilderment that there was no plan, at least that they could discern, for the mob to carry out that day. 1/63

The only thing they knew is that there had been a call to action--and to a large extent to arms as well--to disrupt the certification of Biden’s electoral college win. 2/63

According to Ali Alexander (formerly known as Ali Akbar) the idea was to show up so angry and in such overwhelming numbers that it would “change the hearts and the minds of Republicans who were in that body, hearing our loud roar from outside.” 3/63

(In fact, there is mounting evidence that Ali and other organizers of the event intended for the rioters to get INSIDE the fenced-in perimeter and even the building itself, which would in themselves have been unlawful actions--but that is a subject for another thread.) 4/63

Ali’s description might well fit the motives of many in the mob that assembled on January 6. But the more interesting and important question is: What did Trump and the activists and event organizers expect (or a least hope) that the *members of Congress* would do that day? 5/63
POLITICS
Thomas Wood \U0001f30a
Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
Biden saying that Rs “beat the living hell out of us” in downballot races across the country is significant, because (1) he said it to an audience that didn’t really want to hear it and https://t.co/FM7OwUgWYH 1/8

(2) because he wouldn’t have said it unless it was based on conclusive internal polling. 2/8

It is also encouraging if it *is* the correct analysis of Ds’ disappointing-- even calamitous--electoral outcomes in downballot races.

It is encouraging because it is easily remediable with better messaging. 3/8

In fact, Biden made it clear during the election that he did not favor actually defunding the police: that he only favored reforming the police, and specified policies to do that. But he didn’t say it loud enough, and downballot D politicians didn’t either. 4/8

(The R messaging over “defunding the police” seems to have worked to protect R politicians in downballot races, but wasn’t enough to get Trump himself reelected over the repugnance Ds and Independents felt for him.) 5/8
BIDEN

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Larry Schweikart
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
1) Where we are: This is much, much bigger than a fraudulent election (it was) or rampant gubment tyrannical China Virus abuse (it is).

2) What we are facing has been building for a good 30 years.

3) I date it back to the GOP failure to defeat Clinton in the gubment shutdown.

4) If you went to public school, that would be the 1995 budget battle.

5) The brand new GOP Congress, with plenty of public support, failed to rein in a Clinton bloated budget.

6) It wasn't the numbers. Compared to today's deficits & debts, this was pocket change. Rather, this was the first time since the Cold War, which was a legit excuse for constant deficit spending, that Congress failed to do its MAIN constitutional duty--oversee spending.

7) No, this isn't a thread about deficits or debt. At present, I don't think those pose the biggest challenge to us, or even probably one of the top five.

8) Rather, this is about a deadly disease that hit DC & the patient refused to take any medicine for it.

9) The disease was the failure to address the major problems of the day, whether it was deficits, Islamic terrorism, the banking crisis, or trade.

10) Vote fraud & this frankenstein of an election is only the latest SYMPTOM of this much larger disease.
POLITICS , GOVERNMENT
Tyler Rogoway
Tyler Rogoway
@Aviation_Intel
Let me take a stab at this after years of reporting on Marine One, HMX-1, Continuity of Government, etc. None of this is definitive, but it could help explain what folks are seeing:

1.) HMX-1, which flies the VH-3D and VH-60N 'White Top' helicopters used to move... 1/X


the President and VP around, those helos being called Marine One or Two when either is onboard, need to train. The urban landing zones, including WH and VP Residence, are not simple to get in and out of. So, crews need some currency training. They are not just tasked with... 2/X

moving POTUS and VP to get them around the region and to Andrews AFB for long-haul flights, they are essential to Continuity of Government operations. This means that if a threat were to emerge, they need to be ready to snatch POTUS and VP in minutes. This is partially... 3/X

why they have a full forward operating location at Naval Support Activity Anacostia, just 3 miles from the WH. As such, practice is important and considering the state of things, it is critical now more than in any recent memory. 4/X

2.) Considering what happened last week, including mobs of Trump supporters screaming in unison to hang the VP for doing what the constitution states, absolutely despicable in every way, security has been tightened just as it has been all over. Using the helicopters instead.. 5/X
GOVERNMENT
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Adam Klasfeld
Adam Klasfeld
@KlasfeldReports
Spotted at the U.S. Capitol insurrection with his mother and hopping around the Senate while holding tactical restraints, so-called “zip tie guy” Eric Gavelek Munchel's bail hearing is about to begin.

Live-tweet ahead, for @LawCrimeNews.



A preview for today's detention proceedings is linked at the top of the thread.

Please read it for background for what's up ahead.

A 5-year-veteran FBI special agent is testifying now.

The FBI agent says that he participated in the surveillance and search of Munchel's house in Nashville.

Court papers show what authorities said they found.

Left: Tactical vest with a “Punisher” comic book and Tennessee “thin blue line” patches.

Center: Five pairs of white plastic handcuffs.

Right: A baseball cap depicting a rifle and a flag
GOVERNMENT
Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis
@michaelxpettis
1/9

While debt-to-GDP ratios already have a limited but very misunderstood use, it seems economists are finding bright new ways of misunderstanding them. Now we say that when nominal interest rates are lower than nominal growth rates, the

2/9

downward pressure on the debt-to-GDP ratio makes rising government debt and larger government deficits more sustainable and more easily justified.

This is totally confused. When the nominal interest rate is lower than the nominal GDP growth rate, it only means that net...

3/9

borrowers are getting a disproportionate share of growth relative to net lenders. This in and of itself changes the comparability of the debt-to-GDP ratio, so the fact that the ratio may decline tells us nothing about its sustainability which, I'm glad to say, isn't...

4/9

a mistake Olivier Blanchard makes in this article.

At least three things matter. First, whether or not rising debt is sustainable depends almost wholly on underlying conditions in the real economy, and only trivially on the arithmetical relationship between...

5/9

the interest rate and the growth rate. Second, this approach simply assumes away financial distress costs, in which case debt capacity is infinite anyway and the interest rate becomes irrelevant. And third, it assumes that the nominal debt level matters independently...
GOVERNMENT
Christiaan Triebert
Christiaan Triebert
@trbrtc
At least six people providing security for Roger Stone participated in the Capitol attack, our new Visual Investigation shows. Here's how the guards (all Oath Keepers) went from guarding Trump's longtime confidant to standing inside the Capitol on Jan. 6:

Mr. Stone, a convicted felon who was pardoned by Mr. Trump, has a long history as a self-proclaimed “dirty trickster” political operative. On Jan. 5 and 6, Oath Keepers provided security for him, something he himself confirmed.

We combed through hundreds of videos and photos and drew on research from @CTExposers to visually identify Mr. Stone's guards on Jan. 5 and 6. — from that group, these six entered the Capitol during the insurrection.


Here's how. On Jan. 5, Mr. Stone made two public appearances in D.C. in support of Mr. Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud. In the afternoon, he spoke in front of the Supreme Court. Five of the six Oath Keepers we’re tracking can be seen in this video.


The Oath Keepers are a far-right, anti-government militia — and there's plenty of footage to visually identify them around Mr. Stone on Jan. 5 and 6. Here's another video from that same event in front of the Supreme Court.
GOVERNMENT

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THE IMPORTANCE OF DEVI BEEJ / BIJA MANTRA.

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THREAD: 15 of the most useful razors and rules I've found.

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Bezos' Razors:

• If unsure what action to take, let your 80-year-old self make it.

• If unsure who to work with, pick the person that has the best chances of breaking you out of a 3rd world prison.

Skinner's Law:

• If procrastinating on an item, you only have 2 options:

1. Make the pain of not doing it greater than the pain of doing it.

2. Make the pleasure of doing it greater than the pleasure of not doing it.

Luck Razor:

• If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

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David Rothkopf
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If there is one thing I have learned it is that people love bullshit. They buy bullshit stories from professional bullshit artists, accept bullshit philosophies, purchase bullshit how-to-books, vote for bullshitting politicians.

At first, I resisted believing this because it is illogical and dumb and frankly, doesn't reflect well on the human race of which I am a member (and thus have long been hopeful that it is more of a distinction than it actually turns out to be.)

But if you actually are interested in facts you begin to notice how little most people care for them. Sometimes it is because they are heard to learn and bullshit is so much more widely and easily available. Sometimes it is because facts make them uncomfortable about themselves.

Sometimes it is because just one tiny fact will upset a whole worldview that has grown as comfortable as an overstuffed chair. (Settling into such worldviews is a lot like settling into chairs like that because the longer you're there and the deeper you sink...

...the harder it is to hoist yourself up and out of your fat-assed intellectual laziness.) But I actually think the reason people have such an appetite for bullshit goes deeper, goes to an aspect of ourselves we just can't accept.
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