1) Washington is staring at the potential of a government shutdown Monday night. This is grim. Congress has approved four temporary spending bills since the end of the government’s fiscal year in September to prevent a shutdown.

2) The most recent stopgap measure was a seven day plan this week. Mbrs knew that the COVID/coronavirus bill was so large, it would take several days to send to the White House. Yes, that bill funds the government until next fall. But it isn’t law until the President signs it.
3) So, the most recent Band-Aid measure was the equivalent of fiscal grout. The House will approve another emergency measure on Monday. But there's doubt the Senate will do anything before then. And, it’s unclear if President Trump would sign anything. That means a shutdown.
4) A shutdown is always dangerous. It could be more dangerous during a pandemic. And it’s unclear if a shutdown could have devastating impacts on distributing the vaccine.
5) It takes a two-thirds vote of both the House and Senate to override a presidential veto. With 359 House yeas and 92 Senate yeas on the COVID/omnibus bill, both bodies have way more than a supermajority to override a presidential veto.
6) But note that President Trump didn’t directly threaten to veto the coronavirus/omnibus bill. He didn’t have to. The President could prevent the package from becoming law, via a “pocket veto.”
7) Pocket vetoes are very rare. And you won’t find the term in the Constitution. Congress must find itself in the proper parliamentary posture for this possibility to be in play. But we could very well be in those circumstances now.
8) Article I, Section 7 of the Constitution says the President has ten days (Sundays excluded) to either sign or veto a bill. Otherwise, the bill magically becomes law, sans signature. The COVID/omnibus bill is still not at the White House.
9) Here’s where the pocket veto comes into play:

The latest the current Congressional session can end is 11:59:59 am on January 3.
10) That is the drop-dead time for the 116th Congress. A President may in effect “veto” a bill by keeping it in his “pocket” and not signing it if Congress passes it too close to a Congressional adjournment.
11) Under the Constitution, the new Congress must begin at noon et on January 3.

In other words, Congress needed to get the President the bill by December 23 to avoid a pocket veto. That’s the “ten-day/Sundays excluded” window.
12) That would force the President to either sign or veto the bill. And, if he vetoed it, Congress could try to override.

But Congress adjourning within that “ten day/Sundays excluded” window effectively neuters the possibility of an override attempt.
13) The President gets the bill and holds onto it. He can run out the clock on the Congressional session, blocking any potential override attempt. The bill just goes poof. It does not carry over into the 117th Congress.
14) If President Trump neither signs nor vetoes the coronavirus/spending bill at this stage, it’s like it never happened.

It’s unclear if the President’s proposed changes to the bill could pass. And, don’t forget that Congress has some responsibility in all of this, too.
15) Congress thought it had a deal with President Trump in 2018 to avoid a shutdown. It didn’t. Perhaps wiser heads should have anticipated the pocket veto scenario. Congress dithered well into December, trying to secure a final COVID package.
16) An earlier resolution would have given Congress recourse via a veto override. Now, there’s none.
17) This may be one of the worst Christmas scenarios to ever unfold on Capitol Hill. And there have been some doozies. A Senate vote on Obamacare on Christmas Eve morning in 2009.
18) The House impeached President Clinton just days before Christmas in 1998. The House reprised that performance days before Christmas in 2019. We’ve had Congress return to session between Christmas and New Year’s.
19) December is always a torrent of action in Congress. It’s nothing but late-night negotiations, weekend sessions and chaos. But this year's fury may have ultimately produced nothing at a time of crisis.

More from Chad Pergram

More from Government

Typically excellent piece from @dsquareddigest The exponential insight is especially neat. Think of it a little like fishing...today you can’t export oysters to the EU (because you simply aren’t allowed to), tomorrow you don’t have a fish exporting business (to the EU).


The extremely small minority of people who known anything about this who think that Brexit will be good for the City make a number of arguments which I shall address in turn...

1. They need us more than we need them. This is a variant of the German carmakers argument. And we know how that went...Business will follow the profit opportunity and if that has moved then so will the business...

And what do we mean by us / we. We’re not talking about massed ranks of Euro investing / trading etc blue blooded British institutions.

Au contraire. We’re talking about the London based subs of US, Asian and indeed European capital markets players...As soon as they think the profit opportunity has moved then so will they...it’s a market innit...

You May Also Like

First update to https://t.co/lDdqjtKTZL since the challenge ended – Medium links!! Go add your Medium profile now 👀📝 (thanks @diannamallen for the suggestion 😁)


Just added Telegram links to
https://t.co/lDdqjtKTZL too! Now you can provide a nice easy way for people to message you :)


Less than 1 hour since I started adding stuff to https://t.co/lDdqjtKTZL again, and profile pages are now responsive!!! 🥳 Check it out -> https://t.co/fVkEL4fu0L


Accounts page is now also responsive!! 📱✨


💪 I managed to make the whole site responsive in about an hour. On my roadmap I had it down as 4-5 hours!!! 🤘🤠🤘