MINISTRY OF INTERIOR
ABUJA
PRESS RELEASE
FG DECLARES DECEMBER 25, 28, 2020; JANUARY 1, 2021 PUBLIC HOLIDAYS
More from Government
Let me take a stab at this after years of reporting on Marine One, HMX-1, Continuity of Government, etc. None of this is definitive, but it could help explain what folks are seeing:
1.) HMX-1, which flies the VH-3D and VH-60N 'White Top' helicopters used to move... 1/X
the President and VP around, those helos being called Marine One or Two when either is onboard, need to train. The urban landing zones, including WH and VP Residence, are not simple to get in and out of. So, crews need some currency training. They are not just tasked with... 2/X
moving POTUS and VP to get them around the region and to Andrews AFB for long-haul flights, they are essential to Continuity of Government operations. This means that if a threat were to emerge, they need to be ready to snatch POTUS and VP in minutes. This is partially... 3/X
why they have a full forward operating location at Naval Support Activity Anacostia, just 3 miles from the WH. As such, practice is important and considering the state of things, it is critical now more than in any recent memory. 4/X
2.) Considering what happened last week, including mobs of Trump supporters screaming in unison to hang the VP for doing what the constitution states, absolutely despicable in every way, security has been tightened just as it has been all over. Using the helicopters instead.. 5/X
1.) HMX-1, which flies the VH-3D and VH-60N 'White Top' helicopters used to move... 1/X
Very noisy helicopters flying around Vice President\u2019s residence \u2014 what is going on? pic.twitter.com/XPs1A3px7m
— Michael Beschloss (@BeschlossDC) January 11, 2021
the President and VP around, those helos being called Marine One or Two when either is onboard, need to train. The urban landing zones, including WH and VP Residence, are not simple to get in and out of. So, crews need some currency training. They are not just tasked with... 2/X
moving POTUS and VP to get them around the region and to Andrews AFB for long-haul flights, they are essential to Continuity of Government operations. This means that if a threat were to emerge, they need to be ready to snatch POTUS and VP in minutes. This is partially... 3/X
why they have a full forward operating location at Naval Support Activity Anacostia, just 3 miles from the WH. As such, practice is important and considering the state of things, it is critical now more than in any recent memory. 4/X
2.) Considering what happened last week, including mobs of Trump supporters screaming in unison to hang the VP for doing what the constitution states, absolutely despicable in every way, security has been tightened just as it has been all over. Using the helicopters instead.. 5/X
They shouldn't be.
The pattern is:
GOP in power - GOP dictates policy
Dems in power - GOP dictates policy
The Dems shouldn't legislate toward the GOP.
The GOP doesn't represent its constituents.
The GOP can push it's agenda on its own time.
If Dems push an agenda that actually helps people, it'll also actually help the GOP constituency.
The GOP won't. So give them nothing.
The Dems should ignore the GOP just like the GOP ignores the Dems.
Make them pay for every moment of obstruction.
Just a hard press on legislation that is unassailable and shine a light on the GOP.
Constant. Relentless. Unyielding.
Shut them out and shut them down.
The GOP is not a legitimate political party. It is an anti-democratic, fascist criminal syndicate with no interest whatsoever in governance.
Nobody should give them the slightest bit of credit or legitimacy ever again.
Not a fucking ounce.
Nobody should engage them in legitimate debate in Congress.
They should be pariahs and treated as unserious occupants of Congress.
Because these people were totally ok with their colleagues being killed in furtherance of the destruction of the insitution.
The pattern is:
GOP in power - GOP dictates policy
Dems in power - GOP dictates policy
Soooooooo what\u2019s the problem. The statement I responded to read as it they haven\u2019t been trying to work together.. but they have so..?
— Othello (@BurberryKid11) February 2, 2021
The Dems shouldn't legislate toward the GOP.
The GOP doesn't represent its constituents.
The GOP can push it's agenda on its own time.
If Dems push an agenda that actually helps people, it'll also actually help the GOP constituency.
The GOP won't. So give them nothing.
The Dems should ignore the GOP just like the GOP ignores the Dems.
Make them pay for every moment of obstruction.
Just a hard press on legislation that is unassailable and shine a light on the GOP.
Constant. Relentless. Unyielding.
Shut them out and shut them down.
The GOP is not a legitimate political party. It is an anti-democratic, fascist criminal syndicate with no interest whatsoever in governance.
Nobody should give them the slightest bit of credit or legitimacy ever again.
Not a fucking ounce.
Nobody should engage them in legitimate debate in Congress.
They should be pariahs and treated as unserious occupants of Congress.
Because these people were totally ok with their colleagues being killed in furtherance of the destruction of the insitution.
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?
The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.
This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta
To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
