[thread] an intro from

August 13th 1949 Miss M. Roberts

"Once they saw a Conservative Government in power they and all Young Conservatives up and down the country would be able to say with Keats. “Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, but to be young was very heaven.”"

More from ScottishPanda

Why there was even talk of starving the Irish

But that's ok

Priti only meant it unintentionally

And she was frustrated when she said it

So that's


It's not like the UK talked of invading Spain or Calais

Or was busy trying to incite Irexit, Itexit or the AfD or so other discord in the EU

After all that 50 pence piece

Talks of friendship

So surely we were good friends?

Those liars who had nothing

And knew they had nothing

Well they passed their withdrawal agreement

Knowing they never had any intention of honouring


Oh yes and a reminder

How many Tory MPs are unashamed they passed legislation without forming an opinion on it
[thread]

Let's unpack this


"Since Brussels is convinced"

I like that

Personalise it to Brussels

Not 27 EU nations, our friends, neighbours

"convinced that leaving is an unprecedented act of self-harm"

it has been an act of self-harm

see the damage so far

see why no deal has to be sold as an Australia style deal

see why it has to be hidden within the "massive success" of covid

"it could be proved right"

See UK government forecasts

Not a single one positive

See Liz Truss - unable to explain how any trade deal will make us better off

But not to worry we will "mightily prosper"

"I don't see why they want to crib and confine the UK"

The UK is asking for a deal

The EU will offer one

If the UK doesn't like it well perhaps you should have thought of that before selling simplist fantasy bullshit to lie to voters

More from Government

Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!

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