[thread] an intro from
August 13th 1949 Miss M. Roberts
"Once they saw a Conservative Government in power they and all Young Conservatives up and down the country would be able to say with Keats. “Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, but to be young was very heaven.”"
COVID-19: For the first time in its history UNICEF will help feed kids in the UK https://t.co/BGIniuwUwi
— Sky News (@SkyNews) December 16, 2020
More from ScottishPanda
Can I be the first to congratulate Boris Johnson
On getting a "British shaped deal"
On a "gold standard" trade deal
On making the UK "mightily prosper"
/joking
He won't
But he will sell it as such
And that is all that matters
British PM Boris Johnson will visit India in January to boost trade ties, his first major bilateral trip since taking office https://t.co/EjfCeYAaNK via @bpolitics
— Joe Mayes (@Joe_Mayes) December 15, 2020
On the UK "will not hesitate" to tighten border
For the record
Months the UK "hesitated"
January 2020
February 2020
March 2020
April 2020
May 2020
June 2020
July 2020
August 2020
September 2020
October 2020
November 2020
December 2020
January 2021
February 2021
Priti Patel
Is eager to divulge internal debate held in cabinet to bolster her reputation & get a boost for Tory leadership post Boris
“On ‘should we have closed our borders earlier?’ the answer is yes, I was an advocate [of] closing them last
So this is going to be a really simple thread
I have a larger thread on Priti Patel
Which we will come to at the last
But I want to focus on
“On ‘should we have closed our borders earlier?’ the answer is yes, I was an advocate [of] closing them last March.”
So I would ask of Priti
What evidence did you have that informed your advocacy?
Did you have (to borrow a phrase) an "absolute burden of proof"?
Was it just a hunch or belief?
Were you trying to "do-good" so to
Ian Hislop explains to Priti Patel why she's wrong about supporting capital punishment, but she disagrees claiming "absolute burden of proof" means innocent people will never be wrongly executed.#c4news @LBC #r4today #bbcqt #PoliticsLive #Newsnight #bbcaq #marr #GE2019 pic.twitter.com/dsQ98AzHQH
— I Am Incorrigible FCA (@ImIncorrigible) September 15, 2019
But that's ok
Priti only meant it unintentionally
And she was frustrated when she said it
So that's
[thread]
— ScottishPanda (@PandaScottish) November 23, 2020
The most difficult thing I find is writing the hook into a thread
There is a simple word
It is called Imagine
But first I want to focus on a different topic
Nigeriahttps://t.co/bF4zaDguzh
It's not like the UK talked of invading Spain or Calais
Or was busy trying to incite Irexit, Itexit or the AfD or so other discord in the EU
After all that 50 pence piece
Talks of friendship
So surely we were good friends?
Those liars who had nothing
And knew they had nothing
Well they passed their withdrawal agreement
Knowing they never had any intention of honouring
[thread] a simple question
— ScottishPanda (@PandaScottish) October 17, 2019
What are you prepared to sacrifice for brexit ?
Boris Johnson and his historic wordshttps://t.co/nFkevENjqB
Oh yes and a reminder
How many Tory MPs are unashamed they passed legislation without forming an opinion on it
Let's unpack this
Since Brussels is convinced that leaving the EU is an act of unprecedented self-harm -- and it could be proved right, we'll see -- I don't understand why they want to crib and confine the UK within their imperial regulatory reach in perpetuity. Why bother with a basket case?
— Andrew Neil (@afneil) December 11, 2020
"Since Brussels is convinced"
I like that
Personalise it to Brussels
Not 27 EU nations, our friends, neighbours
"convinced that leaving is an unprecedented act of self-harm"
it has been an act of self-harm
see the damage so far
see why no deal has to be sold as an Australia style deal
see why it has to be hidden within the "massive success" of covid
"it could be proved right"
See UK government forecasts
Not a single one positive
See Liz Truss - unable to explain how any trade deal will make us better off
But not to worry we will "mightily prosper"
"I don't see why they want to crib and confine the UK"
The UK is asking for a deal
The EU will offer one
If the UK doesn't like it well perhaps you should have thought of that before selling simplist fantasy bullshit to lie to voters
More from Government
1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020
Can you guess which plot is which?

The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.
However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).
Infections % from https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.

This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.
Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.
But political lean.
One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.
This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.
We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).
https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta

To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.
This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!
